The Market for Submarines Product Code #F673 A Special Focused Market Segment Analysis by: Warships Forecast Analysis 1 The Market for Submarines 2011-2020 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................3 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................5 Trends........................................................................................................................................................................10 Competitive Environment.....................................................................................................................................38 Market Statistics .....................................................................................................................................................39 Table 1 - The Market for Submarines Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020 ..............................................40 Table 2 - The Market for Submarines Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020................................................43 Figure 1 - The Market for Submarines Unit Production 2011-2020 (Bar Graph) .................................................................................46 Figure 2 - The Market for Submarines Value Statistics 2011-2020 (Bar Graph)..................................................................................46 Table 3 - The Market for Submarines Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2011 - 2020 ...................................47 Table 4 - The Market for Submarines Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2011 - 2020....................................48 Figure 3 - The Market for Submarines Unit Production % Market Share 2011-2020 (Pie Chart) ........................................................49 Figure 4 - The Market for Submarines Value Statistics % Market Share 2011-2020 (Pie Chart).........................................................49 Figure 5 - The Market for Submarines Segment Unit Statistics % Market Share 2011-2020 (Pie Chart) ............................................50 Figure 6 - The Market for Submarines Segment Value Statistics % Market Share 2011-2020 (Pie Chart) ..........................................50 Table 5 - The Market for Nuclear Powered Ballistic Missile Submarines Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020 ...............................................53 Table 6 - The Market for Nuclear Powered Ballistic Missile Submarines Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020................................................53 Figure 7 - The Market for Nuclear Ballistic Missile Subs Unit Production % Market Share 2011-2020 (Pie Chart) ........................................................54 Figure 8 - The Market for Nuclear Ballistic Missile Subs Value Statistics % Market Share 2011-2020 (Pie Chart).........................................................54 ©2011 February 2011 Page 2 Warships Forecast Analysis 1 Table 7 - The Market for Nuclear Powered Attack Submarines Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020 ...............................................56 Table 8 - The Market for Nuclear Powered Attack Submarines Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020................................................57 Figure 9 - The Market for Nuclear Powered Attack Subs Unit Production % Market Share 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart) ......................................................58 Figure 10 - The Market for Nuclear Powered Attack Subs Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart)............................58 Table 9 - The Market for Diesel Electric Attack Submarines Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020 ...............................................60 Table 10 - The Market for Diesel Electric Attack Submarines Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020................................................61 Figure 11 - The Market for Diesel Electric Attack Submarines Unit Production % Market Share 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart) ......................................................62 Figure 12 - The Market for Diesel Electric Attack Submarines Value Statistics % Market Share 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart).......................................................62 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................................64 * * * February 2011 Product Code F673 The Market for Submarines PROGRAMS The following reports are included in this section: (Note: a single report may cover several programs.) A26 Class Astute Class Barracuda Chinese Diesel-Electric Submarines Chinese Nuclear Submarines Dolphin Class Indian Nuclear Submarines Le Triomphant Class Project 677 (Amur) Project 877 (Kilo) Russian Nuclear Submarines Scorpene Soryu Class SSBN(R) SSBN(X) SSN-774 Virginia Class Type 209 Type 214 U-212A ©2011 February 2011 Product Code F673 The Market for Submarines Introduction An examination of navies around the world shows an they appeared to be floundering, looking for a part to interesting pattern. When they run out of money, the play in the strategic scenario in which they operated. It last capability they abandon is their submarine fleet. appears that we are now in one of those interludes. This Their submarines are seen as the most cost-effective is not a new situation, and in each case it has been part of their overall fleet and thus are preserved as long followed by the emergence of a new and defined role as possible. This effect can be seen in the most recent for the submarine. In many cases, though, that new role British defense review, where the surface combatant has arrived unexpectedly and has had little to do with fleet saw savage cuts, the amphibious warfare squadron those that dominated earlier cycles. only slightly less so, but the submarine fleet was Early in the history of the submarine, a significant preserved intact. principle was established. The operational role of the Why this should be was demonstrated half way around submarine fleet was defined by the technical capabilities the world when the South Korean corvette Cheonan was available at the time. In fact, no submarine operations torpedoed and sunk by a North Korean coastal at all were possible until some key issues had been submarine. The corvette was specifically designed for resolved. One was the need to provide the submarine operations in littoral waters and built with full with a means of underwater propulsion that allowed a knowledge of the threat spectrum she would face. Yet, reasonable operational radius. The other was to provide she was blown in half by a torpedo she never saw the craft with a weapon that would allow it to attack an coming and never had a chance to defend herself, let enemy without destroying itself in the process. alone prosecute any submarine contact she might have These challenges proved hard to overcome. For most of made. Even more remarkably, it took several weeks of the submarine's early career, its operations could best be investigation and some sophisticated forensic work summarized by saying that if the submarine didn't kill before it could be proved that the corvette was in fact its crew, the weapons they tried to use would. the victim of a hostile submarine. However, after a stumbling start in the 19th century, The sinking of the Cheonan was a classic example of technology evolved to a point where a practical the menace a submarine can exert when it is operating submarine and its weapons became a reality. within its chosen environment. The force multiplier Coastal Defense. The submarine was initially effect was clearly evident here. The Cheonan was envisioned as a short-range coastal defense system, designed to provide an economical asset for patrolling based in harbors to defend those installations against coastal waters, but the submarine used to sink her cost attack. Since the element of strategic surprise is always an order of magnitude less – and that submarine got on the side of the offensive, the mobility allowed by the away with her attack cold. It is quite clear which asset sea means that the attacker can pick his spot and was the most cost-effective in this particular scenario. concentrate overwhelming force against a defender. However, direct cost comparisons are not the whole The submarine, however, offered an answer to this story. Submarines are an expensive commodity to dilemma. Because it was essentially invisible, the operate and require a sophisticated infrastructure to enemy would not be able to concentrate against it; maintain their operational capability. This level of indeed, it would be the coastal defense submarines that infrastructure investment climbs almost exponentially as could concentrate against ships entering the waters they the navy in question moves toward more effective, but defended. also more complex and costly, submarines. This trend In this manner, the submarine promised to be the long- reaches a peak with the ballistic missile submarines that sought-after "equalizer" that would allow a small navy are extremely expensive in terms of command & control to maintain an effective operational capability in the and