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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Reducing Long-Term Costs While Preserving a Robust Strategic Airlift Fleet Options for the Current Fleet and Next-Generation Aircraft Christopher A. Mouton, David T. Orletsky, Michael Kennedy, Fred Timson Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mouton, Christopher A. Reducing long-term costs while preserving a robust strategic airlift fleet : options for the current fleet and next-generation aircraft / Christopher A. Mouton, David T. Orletsky, Michael Kennedy, Fred Timson. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-7701-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Airlift, Military —United States—Planning. 2. United States. Air Mobility Command. 3. Galaxy (Jet transport)—Costs. 4. C-17 (Jet transport)—Costs. 5. United States. Air Force—Appropriations and expenditures. I. Title. UC333.M68 2013 358.4'46 —dc23 2012048114 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover image courtesy of U.S. Air Force/Staff Sgt. A.C. Eggman. © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2013 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This document reports the findings of a fiscal year 2010–2011 RAND Project AIR FORCE study, “U.S. Air Force (USAF) Intertheater Air- lift Fleet Recapitalization Strategy.”1 In this study, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the best way to recapitalize the USAF intertheater (strategic) airlift fleet. The USAF intertheater airlift fleet comprises C-5s and C-17As. This fleet has been used more heavily since the attacks on September 11, 2001, as a result of overseas contingency operations. As a result, some aircraft will reach their flight hour limits earlier than initially expected, and recapitalization of the fleet will be required to maintain capability. One option is the development and procurement of a new military airlifter, notionally called “C-X.” This would require a large capital outlay for research and development and early production units. Given the current downward pressure on the defense budget and the need to recapitalize other portions of the USAF fleet, adequate fund- ing may not be available. Further, annual funding profiles may need to be “flattened” or “deconflicted” with other USAF programs to fit in the overall USAF budget. This study examined a broad range of potential aircraft alternatives and considered a number of permutations on USAF plans for the current fleet, including a reduced requirement and retirement of all C-5As, to determine how best to recapitalize this 1 A companion volume to this document contains two additional appendixes. See Chris- topher A. Mouton, David T. Orletsky, Michael Kennedy, and Fred Timson, Reducing Long-Term Costs While Preserving a Robust Strategic Airlift Fleet: Appendixes C and D, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-1238/1-AF, forthcoming, Not available to the general public. iii iv Reducing Long-Term Costs While Preserving a Robust Strategic Airlift Fleet fleet. This study analyzed both the net present value life-cycle cost and annual funding profiles of the options considered. Conclusions and recommendations are based on both of these measures. The research described in this document was sponsored by Gen Raymond E. Johns, Jr., Commander, Air Mobility Command, Scott Air Force Base, Illinois. The study was performed within the Force Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables ............................................................................ xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments ........................................................... xxvii Abbreviations .................................................................. xxix CHaptER ONE Introduction .......................................................................1 Organization of This Document .................................................4 CHaptER TWO Intertheater Airlift Fleet and Retirement Schedule ........................7 Projected Airlift Retirements .....................................................8 C-17A ..............................................................................9 C-5 .............................................................................. 13 Fleet Drawdown................................................................ 13 Reduced Force Levels—Budget Control Act of 2011 ..................... 15 Options Considered for the C-5 and C-17A Fleets........................... 17 CHaptER THREE Aircraft Alternatives............................................................ 21 Aircraft Alternatives Analyzed.................................................. 21 C-5 and C-17A Aircraft ....................................................... 21 A C-17A–Derivative Aircraft ................................................. 22 Commercial-Derivative Freight Aircraft .................................... 22 v vi Reducing Long-Term Costs While Preserving a Robust Strategic Airlift Fleet Foreign Military Aircraft ..................................................... 23 New Current-Technology Aircraft ........................................... 23 New Future-Design Aircraft .................................................. 23 Aircraft Alternative Weight Characteristics ................................... 24 Aircraft Alternative Payload and Range Capability .......................... 27 Mission-Capable Rates .......................................................... 28 Measures of Aircraft Technology Risk ........................................ 28 CHaptER FOUR Effectiveness Methodology and Results .................................... 31 Overview .......................................................................... 31 Analyze Cargo Demand Based on Aircraft Capability ...................... 32 Compute Mission and