VU Research Portal Mud: deltas dealing with uncertainties Zegwaard, A. 2016 document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in VU Research Portal citation for published version (APA) Zegwaard, A. (2016). Mud: deltas dealing with uncertainties. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. E-mail address: [email protected] Download date: 30. Sep. 2021 VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT Mud: Deltas dealing with uncertainties ACADEMISCH PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad Doctor aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, op gezag van de rector magnificus prof.dr. V. Subramaniam, in het openbaar te verdedigen ten overstaan van de promotiecommissie van de Faculteit der Aard- en Levenswetenschappen op donderdag 22 september 2016 om 11.45 uur in de aula van de universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105 door Arjen Zegwaard geboren te Sneek promotoren: prof.dr. A.C. Petersen prof.dr.ir. M.Z. Zwarteveen copromotor: dr.ir. P. Wester ii MUD DELTAS DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY ARJEN ZEGWAARD iii MEMBERS OF THE THESIS COMMITTEE: Prof.dr. A. Mol, UvA, Amsterdam. Prof.dr. P.H. Pattberg, VU University, Amsterdam. Prof.dr.ir. J.P.M van Tatenhove, Wageningen University, Wageningen. Prof.dr.ir.P. van der Zaag, Unesco-IHE, Delft. cover photo by Louis Sauter; design by Jelle Samshuijzen. drawings at the start of each chapter by Anneke van der Werff. iv Contents List of Figures .................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ..................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................ ix 1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 1.1 Integrating differential equations? ............................................... 3 1.2 Ceci n’est pas un delta .................................................................. 7 1.3 Multiplicity and fractality .............................................................. 12 1.4 Research questions ........................................................................ 16 1.5 Methodology .................................................................................. 17 1.6 Outline .............................................................................................. 20 2. Climate change and ontological politics in the Dutch Delta.... 23 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 25 2.2 Delta ontologies over time: floods as decisive moments ...... 27 2.3 Socio-natural dimensions of climate change .......................... 31 2.3.1 Mainstreaming climate change ............................................. 32 2.3.2 Climate change as a game changer ................................... 36 2.4 Conclusion ....................................................................................... 39 3. Inside matters of facts ....................................................................... 41 3.1 Introduction: control by tolerance ............................................. 43 3.1.1 The 1953 aftermath .................................................................... 45 3.2 Nature, facts and the nature of facts ........................................ 48 3.2.1 The Philipsdam ............................................................................ 49 3.2.2 Modelling through ..................................................................... 52 3.3 Radiating effect and complexity ............................................... 56 3.3.1 The Oosterschelde storm surge barrier .................................. 57 v 3.3.2 Geese ........................................................................................... 57 3.3.3 Brown rot ...................................................................................... 58 3.3.4 Freshwater distribution .............................................................. 58 3.3.5 De Kier .......................................................................................... 61 3.4 Conclusions ..................................................................................... 64 4. Delta formations ................................................................................. 67 4.1 Introduction: deltas as decentered objects............................. 69 4.2 Methodology .................................................................................. 72 4.3 The making of the delta prototype (and how it changes) ... 73 4.3.1 Translating historical events into norms ................................. 76 4.3.2 Future making and delta planning: apocalypse now? ..... 78 4.4 Dutch delta planning elsewhere. ............................................... 81 4.4.1 Presence and absence in sketching alternative futures ... 83 4.4.2 Enacting a delta through its futures ....................................... 86 4.5 Conclusion and discussion: singularity + mobility = stability .. 90 5. The delta diagnosis ............................................................................ 93 5.1 The rise of sinking deltas ................................................................ 95 5.2 Multiple deltas multiple? ............................................................... 99 5.3 On the puzzle of obtaining stability .......................................... 101 5.3.1 Deltas want to move ............................................................... 103 5.4 On the puzzle of obtaining mobility ......................................... 107 5.4.1 Turning invisible ......................................................................... 109 5.4.2 Normal delta ontology ........................................................... 111 5.5 Delta as a diagnosis .................................................................... 112 6. Mud, muddling through and muddy modernity ........................ 115 6.1 Multiplicities and deltas .............................................................. 117 6.2 The making of deltas ................................................................... 119 6.2.1 Mapping the surface of emergence ................................... 119 vi 6.2.2 Authority of delimitation ......................................................... 120 6.2.3 Grid of specifications .............................................................. 120 6.3 Intermezzo: deltas making deltas making... ........................... 122 6.4 Ontological multiplicity and deltas .......................................... 123 6.5 Muddy existence ......................................................................... 125 References ..................................................................................................... 129 Summary ......................................................................................................... 145 Funding ........................................................................................................... 149 Short biography ............................................................................................ 151 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Overview of the delta works ........................................................ 46 Figure 2: Oosterschelde storm surge barrier and compartment dams 49 Figure 3: Oosterschelde, Krammer-Volkerak, Schelde Rijn ..................... 50 Figure 4: Freshwater routes ........................................................................... 61 Figure 5: Introduction to statistical norms ................................................... 78 Figure 6: Delta scenarios ............................................................................... 80 Figure 7: Mekong, Dutch and Balgadesh deltaplans ........................... 108 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Problems and plans ........................................................................ 38 Table 2: Delta planning in the Netherlands and their objectives ......... 75 Table 3: Delta planning and studies in other deltas and objectives .... 82 vii viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS If I were asked to provide a soundtrack to this PhD thesis, the first song that comes to mind would be the jazz classic “All the things you are”. Not that I would dare to claim that this thesis describes all the things that deltas are, but it does built on the idea that it is not so easy to pinpoint what a delta is, for it can be many things. Just like a song can be many things. In one of the moments when I was staring at an empty sheet of digital paper on my computer screen, waiting for some sort of an epiphany, I created a playlist with a selection of different versions of the song that have been made since it was written in the 1930’s. My starting point