-i- STATED PREFERENCE STUDY OF PORT AND INLAND MODE CHOICE FOR CONTAINERIZED EXPORTS FROM JAVA Munajat Tri Nugroho Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds Institute for Transport Studies September 2015 -ii- The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own and that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. The right of Munajat Tri Nugroho to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © 2015 The University of Leeds and Munajat Tri Nugroho -iii- Acknowledgements Firstly, the author would like to thank his supervisors, Dr Anthony Whiteing and Prof Gerard de Jong for their support during these past four years. Their advice and suggestions during his Ph.D. study are very much appreciated. The author also thanks Dr Tony Fowkes, Mr Daniel Johnson for their advices during the transfer viva. The author also thanks Dr Jeremy Toner as his internal examiner and Prof Lóránt Tavasszy as his external examiner. The author would like to express his special appreciation for the help during the data collection, especially to Dr Hari Prasetyo, Mr Ratnanto Fitriadi, and Mr Diharto from the Centre of Logistics and Industrial Studies of UMS Surakarta. He would also like to thank all the respondents who have helped in his study. Likewise, he say thanks to Ms Novita Ayu (Pelindo II Jakarta), Mr Edi Priyanto and Mr Nugroho Dwi Priyohadi (PELINDO III Surabaya), Mr Yudho Pratikto and Mrs Lina Ratnasari (TPKS Semarang), Mrs Nur Fadhilah (Balitbang Kemenhub), and Mrs Gunawati (PT KAI) which have helped providing supporting supplement data for this study. The author is indebted to the Directorate General of Higher Education (DGHE-DIKTI), Ministry of Research and Higher Education Republic of Indonesia for providing the funding to support his study. The author also thanks the Rector and HRD Department of Muhammadiyah University of Surakarta (UMS), Indonesia for the support and giving him a leave of absence during his study in University of Leeds. Another person the author would like to acknowledge are his colleagues Andyka Kusuma, Fahmi, Probo Hardini, Aswin Siregar and many Indonesian students in Leeds that he could not mention here, for their friendship and great support in finishing his PhD. Last, but certainly not least, the author is truly and deeply indebted to his dear wife, Lusi Nuryanti, who always supported him along his study. He is also very touched and thankful for great support that he had from his two daughters Shafa and Rahni and his parents Bapak Suparno and Ibu Suwarni during his study. Finally, he offers his sincerest apologies to anyone who helped him in during his Ph.D. journey, but he did not acknowledge them in this page. “All the Praises be to Allah, the Lord of the worlds.” -iv- Abstract The aims of this thesis are to understand the issue of intermodal transport in Indonesia and to examine the impact of related policies on shifting to the rail mode; as an attempt to cut GHG emissions from containerized exports from Java. Stated preference (SP) and Revealed preference (RP) data of exporters and forwarders was collected for this purpose. This study employed four inland mode attributes (cost, time, reliability and GHG emissions) and two port attributes (port cost and ship calls frequency) to examine the alternatives. The SP-only and combined SP-RP data are employed to estimate the model using Multinomial Logit, Nested Logit, Mixed Multinomial Logit, and Mixed Nested Logit. The estimation results indicate that increases in inland mode cost, inland mode time, inland mode GHG emissions, and port cost all have very substantial adverse effects on the alternative’s utility. Conversely, inland mode reliability and frequency of ship calls have positive influence on the utility. Five single policies and four combined policies have been simulated using the best model gained from the estimation. Two single policies of cutting fuel subsidies for road mode and giving incentives to rail freight would provide the most important encouragement to modal shift. Nevertheless, the biggest reduction in GHG emissions can be obtained through policies of cutting fuel subsidies for road mode and putting restrictions on times and routes permitted for the road transport operations. The primary contribution of this research rests on its analysis of the exporters’ and freight forwarders’ attitudes related to GHG emissions, and the possible effects of policies that may be implemented to reduce GHG emissions. The novelty of this research is in its development of a joint model of port and inland mode choice from the exporters’ and forwarders’ perspective. -v- Table of Contents Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................iii Abstract ..................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ....................................................................................................... v List of Figures .........................................................................................................xiii List of Tables ............................................................................................................ xv List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................. xix Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 1 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background of Study ................................................................................. 1 1.2 Research Context ....................................................................................... 5 1.3 Research Aims ........................................................................................... 6 1.4 Novelty and Contribution of the Research ................................................ 7 1.5 Thesis Structure ......................................................................................... 7 Chapter 2 Indonesian Logistics and Intermodal Freight Transport in Java ..... 9 2.0 Introduction ............................................................................................... 9 2.1 Indonesia.................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 Geography and Demography ............................................................ 9 2.1.2 The Economic Situation in Indonesia and International Trade ...... 10 2.1.2.1 International Trade of Indonesia: ..................................... 11 2.1.2.2 Containerized Exports and Imports ................................. 13 2.1.3 Logistics Performance of Indonesia ............................................... 16 2.2 Intermodal Freight Transport in Java ...................................................... 17 2.2.1 Road Transport ............................................................................... 18 2.2.2 Rail Transport ................................................................................. 19 2.2.3 Sea Transport .................................................................................. 21 2.2.3.1 Tanjung Priok Port ........................................................... 22 2.2.3.2 Tanjung Emas Port........................................................... 23 2.2.3.3 Tanjung Perak Port .......................................................... 24 2.2.4 Intermodal Transport ...................................................................... 25 2.2.4.1 Cikarang Dry Port ............................................................ 26 2.2.4.2 Gedebage Dry Port........................................................... 26 2.2.5 Fuel Subsidies ................................................................................. 27 2.3 Intermodal Freight Transportation Problems .......................................... 28 -vi- 2.3.1 Road Transport ............................................................................... 29 2.3.1.1 Lack of Infrastructure Quality and Capacity ................... 29 2.3.1.2 Slow Delivery .................................................................. 29 2.3.1.3 Emissions from Freight Transport ................................... 29 2.3.2 Rail Transport ................................................................................. 29 2.3.2.1 Lack of Competition ........................................................ 29 2.3.2.2 Lack of Network Capacity ............................................... 30 2.3.2.3 Rail Transport as the Second Priority .............................. 30 2.3.3 Sea Transport .................................................................................. 30 2.3.3.1 Limited Port Capacity ...................................................... 31 2.3.3.2 High Port Access Costs and Time ................................... 31 2.3.4 Intermodal Transport ...................................................................... 33 2.3.4.1 Poor Rail Access to the Port Terminals ........................... 33 2.3.4.2 Limited Number of