Economic Development Issues for Rural Communities in the Four Western Provinces 2010 - 2015 - 2020 Roslyn Kunin, PhD Director of the BC Office March 2009 This paper was prepared by Dr. Roslyn Kunin, Director of the BC office of the Canada West Foundation. It answers the question: what issues are likely to affect economic development in Canada's rural West between now and 2015? Researchers for this project were Nicole Beissner, Lee Gan and Michael Izen. The Canada West foundation thanks Community Futures Pan West for their support of this project. The opinions expressed in this document are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Canada West Foundation’s Board of Directors, advisors or funders. Permission to use or reproduce this report is granted for personal or classroom use without fee and without formal request provided that it is properly cited. Copies may not be made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage. The report can be downloaded at no charge from the Canada West Foundation website (www.cwf.ca). © 2009 Canada West Foundation ISBN 1-897423-48-6 About the Canada West Foundation Our Vision A dynamic and prosperous West in a strong Canada. Our Mission A leading source of strategic insight, conducting and communicating non-partisan economic and public policy research of importance to the four western provinces and all Canadians. Canada West Foundation is a registered Canadian charitable organization incorporated under federal charter (#11882 8698 RR 0001). In 1970, the One Prairie Province Conference was held in Lethbridge, Alberta. Sponsored by the University of Lethbridge and the Lethbridge Herald, the conference received considerable attention from concerned citizens and community leaders. The consensus at the time was that research on the West (including BC and the Canadian North) should be expanded by a new organization. To fill this need, the Canada West Foundation was created under letters patent on December 31, 1970. Since that time, the Canada West Foundation has established itself as one of Canada’s premier research institutes. Non-partisan, accessible research and active citizen engagement are hallmarks of the Foundation’s past, present and future endeavours. These efforts are rooted in the belief that a strong West makes for a strong Canada. More information can be found at www.cwf.ca. Head Office: #900, 1202 Centre Street SE Manitoba Office: Calgary, AB T2G 5A5 #400, 161 Portage Avenue East Telephone: 403.264.9535 Winnipeg, MB R3B 0Y4 www.cwf.ca Telephone: 204.947.3958 British Columbia Office: Saskatchewan Office: #810, 1050 W. Pender Street 604 Braeside View Vancouver, BC V6E 3S7 Saskatoon, SK S7V 1A6 Telephone: 604.646.4625 Telephone: 306.373.8408 CANADA WEST FOUNDATION • www.cwf.ca The Economy of the Rural West 2010 - 2015 - 2020 Page ii Economic Development Issues for Rural Communities in the Four Western Provinces 2010 - 2015 - 2020 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................VII 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................1 1.1 PROJECT OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................................................1 1.2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .........................................................................................................................2 1.2.1 Secondary Research ........................................................................................................................2 1.2.2 Primary Research..............................................................................................................................2 1.2.3 Research Context..............................................................................................................................3 1.3 KEY DEFINITIONS ..........................................................................................................................................3 2.0 OVERVIEW OF THE FOUR WESTERN PROVINCES ...........................................................................6 2.1 THE RURAL WEST.........................................................................................................................................6 2.2 POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS......................................................................................................................7 Figure 1: Location of the Population in Western Canada (2006)............................................................................... 7 Figure 2: Rural-Urban Population Split – Canada (1901 – 2006).............................................................................. 8 2.2.1 Population Projections ......................................................................................................................8 Figure 3: Projected Population in the West (2006) ...................................................................................................... 8 Figure 4: Projected Population Growth in the West (2006 - 2021)............................................................................ 9 Figure 5: Mid Size Urban Centres with the Fastest Population Growth (2001 – 2006) ....................................... 10 Figure 6: Small Towns & Rural Communities with the Fastest Population Growth (2001 – 2006).................... 10 Figure 7: Mid Size Urban Centres with the Fastest Population Decline (2001 – 2006)...................................... 11 Figure 8: Small Towns & Rural Communities with the Fastest Population Decline (2001 – 2006).................... 11 2.2.2 First Nations & Aboriginal People .................................................................................................11 Figure 9: Location of the Aboriginal Population in Western Canada (2006).......................................................... 12 Figure 10: Aboriginal Population by Age Group by Province (2006) ...................................................................... 13 Figure 11: Graph Aboriginal Population by Age Group by Province (2006) .......................................................... 13 2.2.3 Immigration.......................................................................................................................................14 Figure 12: Number of Immigrants in Western Provinces .......................................................................................... 15 2.3 THE ECONOMY OF THE RURAL WEST ........................................................................................................16 2.3.1 Trade .................................................................................................................................................16 2.3.2 Infrastructure & Transportation......................................................................................................17 Figure 13: Projected BC Ports Container Traffic (millions TEU’s)........................................................................... 18 Figure 14: Forecast of Commodities Transported from Western Canada ............................................................. 18 Figure 15: Forecast Direction of Commodities Transported from Western Canada ............................................ 19 2.3.3 Technology .......................................................................................................................................20 Figure 16: Distribution of Technology Companies, Urban & Rural Areas, 2004................................................... 20 2.3.4 Entrepreneurship .............................................................................................................................21 Figure 17: Distribution of Small Businesses in Canada (2004)................................................................................ 21 2.4 KEY INDUSTRIES OF THE RURAL WEST .....................................................................................................23 2.4.1 Agriculture.........................................................................................................................................23 Figure 18: Farms by Gross Farm Receipt in Western Provinces, 2001 and 2006 ............................................... 23 Figure 19: Number of Bioproducts Firms in Canada, 2003 ...................................................................................... 24 Figure 20: Per Capita Food Consumption in Canada................................................................................................ 25 2.4.2 Forestry .............................................................................................................................................26 Figure 21: Employment in the Forestry Sector in Rural West.................................................................................. 26 2.4.3 Energy ...............................................................................................................................................27 Figure 22: Electricity Generation & Trade by Province*............................................................................................ 27 Figure 23: Capacity of Wind Energy............................................................................................................................. 28 CANADA WEST FOUNDATION •