Reaching for the Stars by applying a theoretically substantiated approach to star power in the context of box office success prediction. Daniel Lang (40294) STOCKHOLM SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS Master Thesis in Business & Economics, Marketing & Media Management Fall 2013 Abstract: This thesis explores the effect of stars on the box office revenue of motion pictures. This is done by deriving a two-dimensional measure of stardom from the theoretical foundations provided by Sherwin Rosen and Moshe Adler. The two dimensions used and operationalized are talent on the one hand and consumption capital, a measure of previous knowledge of the movie cast’s actors, on the other hand. Alongside previously established predictors of movie success these are entered in a regression to determine their influence on movie revenue. Both dimensions are shown to exert influence on the box office with consumption capital wielding the greater power. Keywords: Motion picture, movie, star power, box office, talent, consumption capital Supervisor: Anna Nyberg & Per Andersson Opponent: Leah Steffensen Examiner: Daniel Tolstoy Presentation: Stockholm, December 18th, 2013 Reaching for the Stars Daniel Lang, 2013 A special thanks to Anna Nyberg & Per Andersson for their caring advice and tutelage Patric Andersson & Per Hedberg for discussion and council Christian Opitz & Kay Hofmann for introducing me to this fascinating topic Charlotta Knigge & Lars Velten for reflection and advice on methodology My family & friends for enduring me during the last months ii Reaching for the Stars Daniel Lang, 2013 Table of contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 The “Dream Factory” ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Hollywood nightmares ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Dream catchers ................................................................................................................. 3 1.4 Effectiveness of stars ........................................................................................................ 4 1.5 Purpose Statement ............................................................................................................ 5 1.6 Delimitations .................................................................................................................... 6 1.7 Disposition ........................................................................................................................ 6 2 Literature review ................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Broad box office prediction models ................................................................................. 7 2.2 Focussed prediction models.............................................................................................. 8 2.2.1 Critical reviews .......................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 Awards ....................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3 Word of mouth and consumer ratings ........................................................................ 9 2.2.4 Prequels .................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.5 User activity and search behaviour .......................................................................... 11 2.2.6 Star power ................................................................................................................ 11 2.3 The research gap ............................................................................................................. 13 2.3.1 Star power operationalization .................................................................................. 13 2.3.2 Temporal alignment ................................................................................................. 14 2.3.3 Requirements to fill the void .................................................................................... 16 2.4 The stars .......................................................................................................................... 16 2.4.1 Defining the star ability ........................................................................................... 16 2.4.2 Rosen’s proposal ...................................................................................................... 17 2.4.3 Adler’s response ....................................................................................................... 17 2.5 Application to movies ..................................................................................................... 18 2.6 Hypotheses...................................................................................................................... 19 2.7 Proposed effect architecture ........................................................................................... 20 3 Data compilation ................................................................................................................. 21 3.1 Research strategy ............................................................................................................ 21 3.2 Research design .............................................................................................................. 21 3.3 Initial data set.................................................................................................................. 22 3.4 Movie-related variables .................................................................................................. 22 3.4.1 Box office revenue ................................................................................................... 22 3.4.2 Budget ...................................................................................................................... 23 3.4.3 MPAA-rating ........................................................................................................... 23 3.4.4 Genre ........................................................................................................................ 24 3.4.5 Time of release ......................................................................................................... 25 3.4.6 Studio ....................................................................................................................... 25 3.4.7 Prequels .................................................................................................................... 25 3.4.8 Material source ......................................................................................................... 26 iii Reaching for the Stars Daniel Lang, 2013 3.4.9 Overview of movie-related variables ....................................................................... 26 3.5 Attribution of stars to movies ......................................................................................... 27 3.6 Star-related variables ...................................................................................................... 29 3.6.1 Consumption capital ................................................................................................ 29 3.6.2 Talent ....................................................................................................................... 30 3.6.3 Age and gender ........................................................................................................ 31 3.7 Aggregation to final dataset ............................................................................................ 32 4 Data analysis ........................................................................................................................ 33 4.1 Description of data .......................................................................................................... 33 4.2 Factor analysis ................................................................................................................ 34 4.3 Regression analysis......................................................................................................... 37 4.3.1 Assumptions of linear regression ............................................................................. 37 4.3.2 Trimming towards final model ................................................................................ 39 4.3.3 Final regression model ............................................................................................. 41 4.3.4 Implication for hypotheses ....................................................................................... 43 4.3.5 Outlier analysis ........................................................................................................ 45 5 Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 48 5.1 Findings .......................................................................................................................... 48 5.1.1 Consumption capital ................................................................................................ 48 5.1.2 Talent 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