EVACUATION TIMES ASSESSMENT FOR THE DIABLO CANYON NUCLEAR P(XKR PLANT Prepared For Pacific Gas and Electric Company OOCflt,„~go ~SO Control 0 ofoocgge QA DONg /LE 'REGS 0 a004240 April 1980 AMV Project 581 Alan M. Voorhees 5 Associates, Inc. Transportation, Environmental and Urban Planning Consultants A Plannlntr Raaaarch Company 2150 Shattuck Avenue ~ Berkeley, California 94704 TABLE OF CONTENTS ~Pa e Introduction and Overview II. Area Characteristics A. Topographic Features B. Climatic Conditions 6 C. Infrastructure 10 III. Emergency Planning Area 16 A. NRC Requirements 16 B. Evacuation Analysis 19 C. Affected Jurisdictions 23 IV. Population, Institutions and Vehicle Trip 24 Generations Within the Evacuation Area A. Residential Population and Employment 24 Centers B. Car Ownership and Vehicle Generation 28 C. Institutions 31 D. Recreational Facilities 36 V. Evacuation Operation Concept 39 A. Critical Evacuation Time Period 39 B. Implementation Agency Action Steps 42 C. Action Steps by Car-Owning Population 45 D. Action Steps by Non-Car Owning Population 52 VI. Evacuation Routes 54'4 A. Roadway System B. Natural Hazards and Alterqative Routes 66 VII. Evacuation Time Estimates 76 A. Analysis Methodology 76 B. Evacuation Scenarios 81 C. 'Summary and Conclusions 96 LIST 07 TABLES ~Pa e Table III-1 Description of Evacuation Analysis Zones 21 Table IV-1 Estimated Dwelling Units and Population by NRC Zone 25 Table IV-2 Estimated Dwelling Units and Population by Evacuation Zone ="," 26 Table IV-3 Estimate of Automobiles Used for Evacuations '9 Table IV-4 Estimated Vehicle Generation of Local and Convalescent Hospitals '3 Table IV-5 Summary of Estimated Number of Vehicles by Analysis Zone "38 'able VI-1 Local Evacuation. Routes by Zone 60 Table VI-2 Uncongested Evacuation Travel Times 62 Table VI-3 Average Capacit'ies/Hourly Volumes per Lane 64 Table VI-4 Summary of Typical Seismic Hazards for Bridge Structures 74 Table VII-1 Capacities of Critical Screenlines 78 LIST OF FIGURES ~Pa e General Area Map 3 II-1 Hilly Regions and Flood Plains in the Evacuation Area II-2 Tend Diagram II-3 Street Classification System II-4 Study Area Utility Lines 14 10-Mile Radius and Evacuation Boundary 17 NRC Zone Description 18 Evacuation Analysis Zones 20 School Locations 32 Hospitals, Convalescent Homes and Other Special Generator Locations 34 IV-3 State Beaches/Parks and Regional Parks 37 V-1 Development of Evacuation Curve 46 V-2 Generation of Evacuation Curves 49 VI-1 Evacuation Through Routes 55 VI-2 Local Evacuation Routes VI-3 Structures Freeway/Expressway on Evacuation Route 72 VII-1 Critical Portals and Screenlines 77 VII-2 Demand Capacity Analysis 80 VII-3 Scenario Al Traffic Volumes 83 VII-4 Scenario A2 Traffic, Volumes 84 VII-5 Scenario Bl Traffic Volumes 85 VII-6 Scenario Al Delay and Final Leaving Time 86 VII-7 Scenario A2 Delay and Final Leaving Time 87 VII-8 Scenario Bl Delay and Final Leaving Time 88 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Pur ose and Ob ectives This report contains the results of an Evacuation Times Assessment Study . conducted for the areas surrounding the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in San Luis Obispo County, California. Evacuation times were estimated for various zones and sectors around the plant starting. at "zero" time which represents the sounding of the Early Varning. (Siren) System which is cur- rently being considered for installation by Pacific Gas and Electric Com- pany (PGSE). The objectives of the Evacuation Times Study can be summarized as follows: To obtain the most recent information on resident population, special institutional facilities (e.g. hospitals, educational and'orrectional institutions, etc.), and recreation and beach visitors within the designated evacuation area. To evaluate the existing roads in the area relative to their capability to carry the traffic loads generated by an evacuation. To estimate the time that would be required to evacuate all iri- dividuals from within the designated evacuation area including the identification of potential delays due to inadequate road capacit'es and adverse weather conditions. To provide recommendations for selective and staged evacuation order to prevent congestion and to minimize the in traffic expo-'ure of departing individuals to health hazards. Evacuation Boundar 1/ Cuirent Federal guidelines — call for an emergency planning area consisting of a 10-mile radius from the plant. However, for practical notification and evacu- ation purposes and to avoid bisecting communities, the evacuation boundary 1/ 'Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants", U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, January, 1980. f was extended beyond the 10-mile raduis to follow more describable topographic and j~risdictional boundaries. E'igure I-1 illustrates this des- 1/ ignated evacuation boundary as well as the 2-mile, 6-mile— and 10~ile radius from the Diablo Canyon..nuclear 'facility. Reflecting the prevailing wind directions and topographic characteristics of the area, three sectors radiating from the plant were determined as also shown in Figure I-l. While:these sectors represent a slight variation from the current Federal Guidelines which call for 90'ectors between the 5-:and 10-mile radius, the selected 67.5'ectors are found to Se ~ore practical and identifiable for use in an emergency situation. The designate'd evacuation'boundary shown in Figure I-l is identical to the boundary utilized for PG5E's Early Warning System with the exception of the Five-Cities area to the south of San Luis Obispo. Evacuation times for the Five-Cities area (Arroyo Grande, Pismo Beach, Grover City, Shell Beach and Oceano) will be determined subsequent to this analysis and presented as an appendix to this report. Re ort Contents'hapters II, III and IV of this report describe the area characteristics, emergency planning areas and the identification of the area population respectively. Chapter V contains the various action steps involved in an actual evacuation while Chapter VI deals with the evacuation routes. Finally, Chapter VII presents estimates of evacuation times for various sub-areas for good weather as well as for adverse wind and weather conditions. 1/ A 6-mile radius, rather than S-mile, was utilized to .maintain consistency with earlier evacuation planning efforts. ~va Vo ~ f TTMIellTOH ~ ast~ ~ ~ ~ i+ e 'cl /If CSISTDX! .I \ ~ I lv ron» ~ Ial I ~ ~ . ~ T ~ ~ I 'l cf I a t'e I,» ~ I eve est ~ I«ok' oan Ca aoaC ~ ~ aa ' r...x AT SCADERO ~ ~ ~ „„ a n Its& a'o"'a:, DQ's«naa c P-:,-:.---'"' J I ~ ~ aac«C ~ ~A~iad ~ ( n ~ gaeeocoe I »a I aes a~s» ~ l /sv C aa ~ ~ tw ~ e a s ~ ~ a ~ e e av-- . oeceo«ea eetsscnc vo I«~ . s k»v»» C.~ ya I 1 ~ ~ ve ysn SANTA v I MARGARITA sl t v sac 0 ~ Avl T sac ~ ~ » s I~ Cos4.C a „, C ~ c~ «sac«C «»o ~ oo l sana««a I HlLE V IZAQUS SIQRRO ;t,s~ ~ I c I CUe e o atweb I ~ 'e ' tSIC Iv CVISSWST.IVIWI> sc egg~a « ~ ~ too IIao«a aleSS'o I Is calo v tv(asses S»»lco v«a 'I«tet Hen 6-Q~ (I V aavcvd l»t toes ~Cent 'e r't ta ~ -: 'ISPO:~- ISIS,.vv. < I~I«ooVaacv 2-4 i :I IllSX XII f:5 teen eec Tease Iy&+ r~ «a~ C S~T«t WAS~ r t ~(t Ij: P" /CI I I - - Cnaaa. U ~DII at ef. el, r SotfIT'A 'e 'fCIAII Weic'. AI I ~, ~ ~ I AVILA ACX' nese ~ ~ ' I> II ~eea I v~c- ~" A5 ~ ~ BAT 0 btACH '.. Ist ~ ARROTO ~ «os I C RANDY~ ., 'a a ~ Woes 1 OS VIA CITT : ~ 0 O t( Va ~ I IS ' t C~ ~ Ceeea«C»ay» aoaIV ~ ++ JVy«e ~ cC OCTANO (D I 4: -V ~l c (D ~a» s I a ~ ~ ~ e 0 SI«I Ias'v»»v ~loss ~ 0 c CS II I I O~ cs Mo toot +c" ~ I (5 P'iCUg,Z ~-i: GENEFAr PREA HAP c„ 0 AREA CHARACTERISTICS 'A. To o ra hic'Features The Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant site is located on a coastal terrace "'nd is surrounded by approximately six miles of steep, brush-covered mountain ridges and deep canyons known as the Irish Hills. These hills contain a number of sparsely populated valleys such as the Prefumo and See Canyons. Access to these canyons is limited: many of these canyons are served by a combination of public and private 2-lane paved roads and circuitous unimproved jeep trails. These hilly areas are illustrated in Figure II-l. To the north beyond the Irish Hills, the Los Osos Valley extends 'from the City of 'Morro Bay to the City of San Luis Obispo and is bounded to the east by the hills of the Los Padres National Forest. The hills and "large State Parks and Military Reservations in the area are some'of the reasons why the- present population within the immediate 6-mile vicinity of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Facility is rather small. The development of the area is chiefly confined to the Los Osos Ualley region. Development growth project- ions for 1990 are limited to "infill"conditions in still undeveloped areas in the Los Osos Valley region ~ and no or little additional development is projected for the hill areas. 1. San Luis Obispo Traffic Circulation Study. Wilbur Smith & Associates. May 1979.. re' ae )400 Cmo ~ te ~ eg 0C. I) JP' C' I ~oaC I) oasse I ~ I00 I ~ ' ~0 IasUC40 ~ re I' 4 le I I J4 4040 CI ~ ~ 4 SAN)A I .0% ea ~ ~ MARGAR)f* ~ aoCC r. %a Ja ~ Ar.'a . I *Ce JC ~l,joe ga.