No. 354 JUNE Bulletin 2008 RUNNYMEDE’s QUARTERLY The GLA Elections: London Mayor and London Assembly Matthew Ross looks behind the results of the recent elections in London to see what is really going on. Behind the personality politics these ambitions, the Assembly’s The Mayoral Election Matthew of the Mayoral contest, the May composition after the election The Mayoral election uses the Ross is an First London Assembly elections still falls short of accurately Supplementary Vote system, intern at the presented the main political representing an ethnically whereby the voter is able to cast a Runnymede parties with an opportunity to diverse London. Representation first and second preference vote. If Trust. put their stated ambitions for increased from only two BME no candidate receives more than increasing BME representation Assembly Members after the half of the first preference votes, in politics into practice. Not 2004 elections to four out the two candidates with the most only do black and minority of the twenty-five Assembly first preference votes go through ethnic people make up 29 per Members. Significantly for race to a second round and the other cent of Londoners, but also the relations in the city, for the first candidates are eliminated. If the Alternative Vote system used time, a member of the British second preference of voters for for the Assembly election allows National Party was elected the eliminated candidates were for for candidates from traditionally to the Assembly, and nearly either of the remaining candidates, underrepresented groups to 200,000 Londoners gave the these second preference votes be included on the London- BNP Mayoral candidate their first are added to their totals, and the wide ‘top-up list’. Despite or second preference vote. candidate with the highest total of Table 1. Votes in the London Mayoral Election 2008 Source: london.gov.uk Candidate name Party 1st choice 1st choice 2nd choice 2nd choice votes % votes % Boris Johnson Conservative Party 1,043,761 42.48 257,792 10.49 Ken Livingstone The Labour Party 893,877 36.38 303,198 12.34 Brian Paddick Liberal Democrats 236,685 9.63 641,412 26.11 Siân Berry Green Party 77,374 3.15 331,727 13.5 Richard Barnbrook British National Party 69,710 2.84 128,609 5.23 Alan Craig Christian People’s Alliance and Christian Party 39,249 1.6 80,140 3.26 Gerard Batten UK Independence Party 22,422 0.91 113,651 4.63 Lindsey German Left List 16,796 0.68 35,057 1.43 Matt O’Connor English Democrats 10,695 0.44 73,538 2.99 Winston McKenzie Independent 5,389 0.22 38,954 1.59 ISSN: 1476-363X RUNNymede’S QUARTERLY BULLETIN JUNE 2008 1 Table 2. Final Mayoral Result Source: london.gov.uk Candidate name Party 1st choice 2nd choice votes votes* Total Votes Boris Johnson Conservative Party 1,043,761 124,977 1,168,738 RACE & Ken Livingstone The Labour Party 893,877 135,089 1,028,966 ELECTIONS * On papers where the 1st and 2nd choice votes are for the top two candidates, the 2nd choice votes are not counted first and second preference votes tactically, with a mind to influencing representation (see Table 4). wins. the final result. However, with The impact of the Assembly’s The result of the Mayoral the distribution of first preference Additional Vote system is manifold, election (see Tables 1 and 2) votes so heavily favouring the top but has particular implications for matched the media coverage of two candidates this suggests that the diversity of candidates put the contest, in as much as it was the electorate treated the Mayoral forward by the political parties and presented as a two horse race election as if it was being conducted the likelihood of those candidates between Boris Johnson and Ken under the first past the post system. being elected. The London-wide Livingstone. In the 2004 election, It is difficult to discern whether list allows parties to correct for the 64% of first preference votes went this realignment is due to broader under representation of women to the top two candidates, while in electoral trends or factors particular and BME candidates, while London’s the 2008 election that figure had to the Mayoral contest, namely ethnic diversity would suggest increased to 79%. Either indicating the beauty contest between Boris there is a constituency for BME unfamiliarity with the Supplementary Johnson and Ken Livingstone. candidates. The Labour Party has Vote system or the electorate’s embraced this potential, with 50% view that the contest was indeed a The Assembly Election of their candidates for the Assembly two-horse race, 17% of voters didn’t The London Assembly is elected coming from a BME background. indicate a second preference and by two different electoral systems. The Conservative Party has been 15% of those who did, used their Fourteen Assembly members are less successful, with only three BME second preference to support the elected in constituency seats (usually candidates out of a total of twenty- direct rival of their first preference. covering two or three London three Assembly candidates. This in A Supplementary Vote system boroughs) using the standard part may simply be a reflection of should theoretically increase the Westminster first past the post the Party’s composition in London, vote share of smaller parties, as system (see Table 3). A further but it also reflects a lack of political voters can use their first preference eleven are elected in a London-wide will; where the Conservatives have to vote with their conscience party list ballot, with those seats focused on improving BME candidate and use their second preference allocated using a form of proportional selection, devices such as the A-List Table 3. Constituency Assembly Members Source: london.gov.uk Constituency Candidate Party Votes(%) Majority Gain/Hold Barnet and Camden Brian Coleman Conservative Party 41.15% 19,693 Hold Bexley and Bromley James Cleverly Conservative Party 52.59% 75,237 Hold Brent and Harrow Navin Shah The Labour Party 37.27% 1,649 Gain City and East John Biggs The Labour Party 34.69% 31,553 Hold Croydon and Sutton Stephen O’Connell Conservative Party 44.08% 42,665 Hold Ealing and Hillingdon Richard Barnes Conservative Party 43.15% 28,638 Hold Enfield and Haringey Joanne McCartney The Labour Party 33.26% 1,402 Hold Greenwich and Lewisham Len Duvall The Labour Party 36.21% 16,134 Hold Havering and Redbridge Roger Evans Conservative Party 47.67% 43,025 Hold Lambeth and Southwark Valerie Shawcross The Labour Party 37.16% 23,648 Hold Merton and Wandsworth Richard Tracey Conservative Party 44.85% 26,293 Hold North East Jennette Arnold The Labour Party 37.95% 28,437 Hold South West Tony Arbour Conservative Party 40.82% 26,928 Hold West Central Kit Malthouse Conservative Party 53.41% 51,381 Hold 2 RUNNymede’S QUARTERLY BULLETIN JUNE 2008 Source: london.gov.uk Table 2. Final Mayoral Result Table 4. London-wide Members Party Votes Votes % Number Change in elected number elected Conservative Party 835,535 34.63% 3 3 RACE & Liberal Democrats 275,272 11.41% 3 -2 ELECTIONS Green Party 203,465 8.43% 2 0 The Labour Party 665,443 27.58% 2 0 British National Party 130,714 5.42% 1 1 UK Independence Party 46,617 1.93% 0 -2 Left List 22,583 0.94% 0 Independent (Rathy Alagaratnam) 3,974 0.16% 0 English Democrats 25,569 1.06% 0 Respect (George Galloway) 59,721 2.48% 0 Abolish the Congestion Charge 63,596 2.64% 0 The Christian Choice 70,294 2.91% 0 One London 3,430 0.14% 0 Unity for Peace & Socialism 6,394 0.27% 0 have provide successful, and will 5.42%, gaining its first seat on the position has been further weakened probably lead to the Conservatives London Assembly. by the decline in salience of the Iraq returning a number of BME MPs at The election of a BNP war, which had previously helped the next general election. Assembly member is a concerning them win votes with the Muslim The Assembly election increased development for race relations in community. the number of BME Assembly London. However, the scale of the Positively, new BME candidates Members (AMs) from two to four. BNP’s breakthrough shouldn’t be are well received within London, Both the sitting BME Assembly overemphasized; the contest was a no longer suffering that initial dip in Members were returned. The new lot tighter than had been expected, vote share as experienced by those BME Assembly Members were both with its share of the vote so close first BME MPs in 1987. Alongside elected as Constituency members, to the cut-off threshold it isn’t in the two main parties fielding with the first Hindu AM, Navin Shah, a strong position to go into future BME candidates in a number of making a Labour gain against the elections. Moreover, in Councils winnable seats – Chuka Umunna tide of the night, and the first black where the BNP has previously made (Labour) in Streatham, Shaun Bailey Conservative AM, James Cleverly gains, the pattern is for that support (Conservative) in Hammersmith securing a swing for his party of to wane, as Councillors fail to deliver and Rushanara Ali (Labour) in 13.58%, well above the London or are accused of incompetence. Bethnal Green and Bow, to name average. While a promising result, only three – it would appear the there still needs to be a further Conclusion next General Election will yield three BME Assembly Members The results for the London significantly more BME MPs than before it accurately represents Assembly election contain a number the current fifteen.