Report for Phase I: Alternative Governance Options for Consideration, Future Village of Port Chester Board of Trustee Elections Dr. Lisa Handley Executive Summary My assessment of governance alternatives that are likely to provide Hispanics with an opportunity to elect candidates of choice is preliminary at this stage and will require additional research to draw more definitive conclusions. In this first phase of the project, I have simply compared the percentage Hispanic of the electorate to the thresholds of exclusion associated with each of the possible alternatives. (The threshold of exclusion is a mathematical calculation indicating the percentage of the electorate that a minority group must exceed to be guaranteed a seat on a governing board). My tentative conclusions regarding various options are as follows: At-large electoral system: While a traditional at-large electoral system would not provide Hispanics with an opportunity to elect candidates of choice, modifying the at-large system with cumulative voting (as is currently the case), as well as limited voting (with the vote limited to one) or ranked choice voting, would offer Hispanics an opportunity to elect their preferred candidates. The number of seats in the modified at-large system could increase, remain the same, or decrease to five seats, and possibly even to four seats and still provide Hispanics with an opportunity to elect candidates of choice. Districted or mixed electoral system: The impact of a districted or mixed electoral system is difficult to determine without actually drawing some illustrative districts. It was possible to draw one solidly Hispanic district in a six-district map when this was attempted ten years ago. With the increase in Hispanic population, it will certainly be possible to draw at least one such district now as well. If a mixed system were to be adopted and the number of districts to be drawn were fewer than six, it would require a drawing exercise to determine how many districts would have to be incorporated into the system in order to ensure that at least one district would provide Hispanic voters with an opportunity to elect their preferred candidate. Staggered terms: Staggering trustee terms in a manner that would mean that less than four seats were up for election (for example, staggering the terms so that two members were up every year, as was the case prior to 2010) would mean that Hispanic voters would no longer meet the threshold of exclusion, at least not without moving to a districted or mixed electoral system. However, if the number of trustees were increased from six to eight, it is possible that terms could be staggered, but only by electing four members each across two cycles. 1 Election date: Moving the trustee elections to November would only increase the Hispanic proportion of the electorate if the elections were held in presidential election years and this would require extending trustee terms of office from three years to four years. This is because, in elections held in even years when federal and state offices other than the president were on the ticket, Hispanic turnout is lower (and about comparable to what it is currently in trustee elections). Hispanic turnout in elections held in November during odd-years is lower still. This tentative assessment of governance alternatives will be elaborated upon once additional research has been completed. I will be conducting an analysis of voting patterns by race/ethnicity in phase II of the project which will provide me with more information on the level of Hispanic cohesiveness and the degree of white crossover voting for Hispanic-preferred candidates that might generally be expected. In phase III, I will be drawing illustrative minority districts to determine what districted and mixed system configurations are likely to provide Hispanics with an opportunity to elect their preferred candidates. I. Introduction As part of a consent agreement signed in 2009, the Village of Port Chester maintained its at-large system for electing its six-member Board of Trustees but modified it with cumulative voting. Prior to the decree, the Village elected the six trustees in staggered three-year terms, with two members running every two years in a traditional at-large system. In order to provide Hispanics with the opportunity to elect their preferred candidate (or candidates), the staggered terms were eliminated and voters were given six votes that they could spread over six candidates or cumulate on a smaller number of candidates, or even “plump” all six votes on a single candidate. This change was accompanied by a voter education program that, based on an exit poll conducted during the first election to use cumulative voting, was successful. As a result of this change in the voting rules, the first Latino member of the Board, Luis Marino, was elected in the June 2010 contest and re-elected in March 2013 and March 2016. The consent decree expired in June 2016 and the Board is now faced with the decision of whether to retain the current voting system – an at-large electoral system modified with cumulative voting – or adopt another electoral system. In at least some respects, the relevant conditions have changed since the court approved the cumulative voting system as an appropriate remedy for the Voting Rights Act violation it held existed. The Hispanic population has grown markedly. In 2000, Hispanics constituted 46.2 percent of the total population, 43.4 percent of the voting age population and 21.9 percent of the citizen voting age population.1 According to the 2010 census, Hispanics comprised slightly over 59 percent of the total population and 56.7 percent of the voting age population. The American Community Survey, the 1 United States v. Village of Port Chester, 704 F. Supp. 2d 411, 419-420. Plaintiff’s expert demographer estimated the Hispanic citizen voting age population to be 27.5 percent in 2006. 2 only source of citizenship data now produced by the U.S. Census, estimates that as of about 2015, 40.7 percent of the citizen voting age population of the Village of Port Chester was Hispanic (and 63.8 percent of the total population and 60.9 of the voting age population was Hispanic). Table 1 reports the results of the 2010 decennial census as well as the most recent ACS estimates.2 Table 1: Total and Hispanic population figures for Village of Port Chester 2010 census American Community Survey (2011-15) Total Voting age Total Voting age Citizen voting population population population population age population # % # % # % # % # % Total 8967 22422 29405 22865 13705 Non-Hispanic 9155 31.6 7733 34.5 8560 29.1 7200 31.5 6645 48.5 white Non-Hispanic 1541 5.3 1189 5.3 1480 5.0 1300 5.7 1180 8.6 black Hispanic 17193 59.4 12705 56.7 18750 63.8 13925 60.9 5580 40.7 Hispanic voter registration has also increased, albeit not to the extent that the Hispanic population has increased.3 Our analysis indicates that Hispanics now comprise nearly 29 percent of the registered voters in the Village Port Chester. (The comparable percentage in 2006 was 20.0 percent, according to the author’s calculation as presented to the court in United States v. Village of Port Chester.) Table 2 shows the gradual increase in Hispanic registration since 2008. 2 Because the decennial census does not collect data on citizenship, Hispanic citizen voting age population was derived from the American Community Survey (ACS), an annual Census Bureau survey that collects racial/ethnic data, citizenship information and a host of other demographic, social and economic data. The most recent five-year ACS CVAP data for the Village of Port Chester, ACS11-15, was used. (The ACS estimates for race, ethnicity and citizenship are reported for pooled five-year time periods for smaller jurisdictions such as the Village of Port Chester rather than for a specific year.) 3 Hispanic registration and turnout percentages are based on a Spanish surname analysis of the voter registration and sign-in lists. The turnout data for 2010 and 2011 is still in the process of being verified and should be considered preliminary at this stage. 3 When recent registration is considered, the percentage is much higher: slightly over 43 percent of those who have registered to vote in the last five years have been Hispanics. Table 2: Percentage of registered voters that were Hispanic, 2008-2017 Percentage of registered voters Election Date of that were year election Hispanic 2008 5-Feb 22.1% 2010 16-Mar 24.4% 2010 2-Nov 24.6% 2011 15-Mar 24.7% 2011 13-Sep 25.1% 2011 8-Nov 25.2% 2012 24-Apr 25.6% 2012 26-Jun 25.7% 2012 6-Nov 26.1% 2013 19-Mar 26.4% 2013 10-Sep 26.6% 2013 5-Nov 26.6% 2014 9-Sep 26.9% 2014 4-Nov 27.0% 2015 18-Mar 27.0% 2015 10-Sep 27.1% 2015 3-Nov 27.2% 2016 15-Mar 27.5% 2016 19-Apr 27.6% 2016 8-Nov 28.6% 2017 21-Mar 28.8% 2017 12-Sep 28.8% 2017 7-Nov 28.8% Hispanic turnout in recent elections has also grown, but the percentage of the electorate that is Hispanic varies considerably depending on when in the cycle the election is held and what offices are on the ballot. Hispanic turnout in Trustee elections since cumulative voting was introduced has increased considerably: Hispanics comprised 17.2 percent of the voters in March 2010, 16.9 percent in March 2013, and 23.8 percent in March 2016. (This author calculated the percentage Hispanic of the electorate to be 9.7 percent in 2004, 10.4 percent in 2005 and 11.3 percent in 2006 as presented to the court in United States v.