Modelling of Transit Reliability and Speed Using AVL Data in the City of Toronto by Wenxun Hu A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Applied Science in Transportation Engineering Graduate Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto © Copyright by Wenxun Hu, 2015 Modelling of Transit Reliability and Speed Using AVL Data in the City of Toronto Wenxun Hu Master of Applied Science Graduate Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto 2015 Abstract The objective of this study is developing mathematical models to explain the relationships between transit reliability and speed and a variety of factors, including but not limited to service characteristics of bus lines, physical infrastructures, signal timings, traffic conditions and ridership, by using AVL data of bus lines that are representative of the entire bus network in the City of Toronto with special focus on examining the effect of transit signal priority (TSP). The coefficient of variation of run time is used as the indicator of transit reliability. The modelling results of linear regression at route and segment level suggest that the increase of service distance, signalized intersection density, stop density, volume of boarding and alighting passengers and vehicle volume significantly reduces both transit reliability and speed. TSP, involved as an independent variable in the segment level analysis, demonstrates beneficial influence on improving transit reliability and speed. ii Acknowledgments I would like to give special thanks to my supervisor, Professor Amer Shalaby, for his guidance, thought-provoking discussions, encouragement, support and understanding throughout the course of completing this research. I would like to thank Ivelina Pilafova and Kenny Ling in the Strategy and Service Planning Department in Toronto Transit Commission, Rajnath Bissessar, Hao Le, Patricia Klemp and Darryl Spencer in Traffic Management Centre, and Dr. Bhagwant Persaud in Ryerson University for providing me extensive assistance and data for this research study. I also must thank my friends and fellow colleagues for providing me wonderful learning and working environment at the University of Toronto and the ITS lab. Finally, my deepest thanks and love go to my parents and my husband, Dengbo, for their tremendous support, patience, and encouragement. iii Table of Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................. iv List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................vii 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Overview .................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Thesis Statement .................................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Thesis Organization ............................................................................................................................... 3 2 Literature Review ............................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Definition of Transit Reliability ............................................................................................................. 4 2.2 Importance of Transit Reliability and Speed ................................................................................... 5 2.3 Factors Influencing Transit Reliability and Speed ......................................................................... 6 2.4 Measures of Transit Reliability ............................................................................................................ 7 2.4.1 On-Time Performance Measures ........................................................................................................ 7 2.4.2 Headway Adherence Measures ........................................................................................................... 8 2.4.3 Travel Time Measures ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.4.4 Wait Time Measures ................................................................................................................................ 11 2.5 Improvement Strategies of Transit Reliability and Speed ........................................................ 13 2.6 Limitations of Previous Research .................................................................................................... 15 3 Methodology and Approach ....................................................................................................... 17 3.1 Determination of Dependent Variables .......................................................................................... 17 3.2 Preliminary Selection of Independent Variables ......................................................................... 19 3.3 Data Collection ....................................................................................................................................... 20 3.4 Data Processing .................................................................................................................................... 22 3.5 Modelling .................................................................................................................................................. 22 4 Data ................................................................................................................................................... 25 4.1 Bus lines................................................................................................................................................... 25 4.2 Service Data of Buses ......................................................................................................................... 26 4.3 Physical Infrastructures ....................................................................................................................... 27 4.4 Tracking Data ......................................................................................................................................... 27 4.5 Riding Count ........................................................................................................................................... 29 4.6 Signal Timings ........................................................................................................................................ 30 4.7 Vehicle and Pedestrian Volume ....................................................................................................... 34 4.8 Weather .................................................................................................................................................... 35 5 Data Processing ............................................................................................................................ 36 5.1 Line Length ............................................................................................................................................. 36 5.2 Frequency of Service and Terminal Time ..................................................................................... 37 5.3 Scheduled Speed and Driving Time ................................................................................................ 37 5.4 Service Hours ......................................................................................................................................... 38 5.5 Riding Count ........................................................................................................................................... 38 5.6 Stops and Intersections ....................................................................................................................... 39 5.7 Signal Timings ........................................................................................................................................ 40 iv 5.8 Vehicle and Pedestrian Volume ....................................................................................................... 41 5.9 Tracking Data ......................................................................................................................................... 41 5.9.1 Part 1 MATLAB CODE ............................................................................................................................ 43 5.9.2 Part 2 MATLAB Code .............................................................................................................................. 46 5.9.3 Part 3 MATLAB Code .............................................................................................................................