RETAIL MARKET STUDY AND STORE STRATEGY ANALYSIS VERNON HILLS, ILLINOIS Prepared For: VILLAGE OF VERNON HILLS VERNON HILLS, ILLINOIS FEBRUARY, 2019 John C. Melaniphy email: [email protected] President February 25, 2019 Mr. Mike Atkinson Building Commissioner Village of Vernon Hills 290 Evergreen Vernon Hills, Illinois 60061 In re: Retail Market Study and Store Strategy Hawthorn Center and Retail Sites Vernon Hills, Illinois Dear Mr. Atkinson: We have completed our Market Feasibility Study and Store Strategy Analysis to determine the appropriate strategy for Hawthorn center and to direct the mix of restaurants, retailers, entertainment venues, residential, and guide the overall success of the envisioned mixed-use redevelopment. We have also completed our review of the Village’s development sites to determine their overall market potential and the types of retailers best suited to meet market demand. We sincerely appreciate the opportunity to assist the Village of Vernon Hills and in the orderly redevelopment of Hawthorn Center and Village’s retail base. MELANIPHY & ASSOCIATES, INC. 6348 North Milwaukee Avenue, #198, Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 467-1212 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Number Title Page Number I ASSIGNMENT 1 Objectives 1 Assumptions 3 II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 Department Stores 5 Retail Bankruptcies and Store Closings 6 Hawthorn Center 7 Core Mall Markets 8 Top 20 Suburbs 8 Internet Sales 8 Shopping Center Construction 9 Chicago Metropolitan Area Retail Vacancy 11 Rental Rates 12 National, Regional, and Local Retail Trends 12 Expanding Retailers 14 Socioeconomic and Demographic Characteristics 15 Vernon Hills Retail Sales Experience 15 Major Mall, Stores, Big Boxes, and Other Sales Tax Generators 17 Trade Area Delineation 18 Vernon Hills Market Penetration 20 Vernon Hills Retail Sales Forecast 22 Retail Market Strategy 22 ◼ Hawthorn Mall – NWC Milwaukee Ave. and Town Line Rd. 22 ◼ NWC Corner of Milwaukee Avenue and Greggs Parkway 23 ◼ SWC Corner of Milwaukee Avenue and Greggs Parkway 24 ◼ Darling Farm – NWC of Lakeview Parkway and South American Way 24 Target Tenants 25 Vacant Store Strategy 29 Financial Assistance 30 Implementation Plan 32 III METHODOLOGY 35 IV GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS 39 Overview 39 Population 39 Population Projections 48 Accessibility 48 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Section Number Title Page Number IV GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS (continued) Retail Sales 48 Employment 51 V RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS 61 Retail Bankruptcies and Store Closings 61 Core Mall Markets 62 Top 20 Suburbs 63 Shopping Center Construction 64 Chicago Metropolitan Area Retail Vacancy 65 Rental Rates 66 Subject Sites/Location 66 Accessibility 67 Driving Time Analysis 67 Traffic Volumes 69 Trade Area Delineation 71 Trade Area Market Support Factors 74 Competitive Environment 77 Retail Vacancy 79 Planned and Proposed Shopping Centers 81 Retail Expenditure Patterns 82 Vernon Hills’ 2018 Market Penetration 85 Vernon Hills Market Potential 2018 and 2023 87 Vernon Hills Sales Forecast - 2018 and 2023 91 VI STORE STRATEGY ANALYSIS 93 Retail Market Strategy 93 Hawthorn Mall – NWC Milwaukee Ave. and Town-Line Rd. 93 NWC Corner of Milwaukee Avenue and Greggs Parkway 94 SWC Corner of Milwaukee Avenue and Greggs Parkway 95 Darling Farm – NWC of Lakeview Parkway and South American Way 95 Target Tenants 96 Vacant Store Strategy 100 Financial Assistance 101 Implementation Plan 103 ADDENDA Representative Client List LIST OF TABLES Table Number Title Page Number 2.1 Vernon Hills Retail Sales 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2025 12 2.2 Vernon Hills Market Penetration by Major Retail Category 16 2.3 Vernon Hills Retail Sales Comparison and Forecasts 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2025 22 2.4 Target Tenants Village of Vernon Hills 14 2.5 Vernon Hills Vacant Stores and Possible Replacements 19 4.1 Population Statistics – Chicago Metropolitan Area 40 4.2 Population Statistics – Chicago and North and Northwest Suburbs in Cook County 41 4.3 Population Statistics – Lake County Municipalities 43 4.4 Households – Chicago and North and Northwest Suburbs in Cook County 45 4.5 Households – Lake County Municipalities 4.6 Retail Sales by County – (2008-2017) 49 4.7 Retail Sales by Retail Category – Chicago Metropolitan Area - 2016 and 2017 50 4.8 Unemployment Insurance (UI) Covered Private Sector Employment – Chicago Metropolitan Area by County 54 4.9 Unemployment Insurance (UI) Covered Private Sector Employment – Lake County 55 4.10 Unemployment Insurance (UI) Covered Private Sector Employment – Vernon Hills 57 * Following Page Number LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Table Number Title Page Number 4.11 Unemployment Insurance (UI) Covered Private Sector Employment – Selected Lake County Municipalities 58 4.12 Major Employers - Lake County 60 5.1 Driving Time Analysis – Village of Vernon Hills 68 5.2 Average Daily Traffic Volumes - Selected Arterials 70 5.3 Trade Area Market Support Factors 75 5.4 Competitive Retail Inventory 77* 5.5 Vernon Hills Occupancy and Vacancy Existing Retail Complexes 80 5.6 Economic Census of Retail Trade, 1997 2002, 2007, and 2012 Chicago Metropolitan Area 83 5.7 Retail Sales by Retail Category – Chicago Metropolitan Area 2016-2017 84 5.8 Retail Sales of Surrounding Villages - Retail Categories (2010-2017) 84* 5.9 Vernon Hills Annual Retail Sales and Sales Changes Major Retail Categories – 2000-2008 84* 5.10 Per Capita Expenditures 2008, 2013, and 2018 85* 5.11 Total Retail Expenditure Potential 2008, 2013, and 2018 85* 5.12 Market Penetration and Sales Volumes by Retail Category 2008, 2013, and 20108 85* 5.13 Vernon Hills Retail Sales Comparisons and Forecasts 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2025 91 6.1 Target Tenants – Village of Vernon Hills 96 * Following Page Number LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Table Number Title Page Number 6.2 Vernon Hills Vacant Stores and Possible Replacements 100 * Following Page Number LIST OF FIGURES Figure Following Number Page Number 1.A Area Map 1* 2.A Vernon Hills Retail Sales Graph – 2008-2017 16 2.B Trade Area Map 20 5.A Driving Time Analysis 69 5.B Automobile Traffic Counts – Vernon Hills Area 2017 71 5.C Trade Area Map and Driving Time Analysis 73 5.D Competitive Retail Inventory 77* * Following Page Number Retail Market Study & Store Strategy Analysis – Village of Vernon Hills Page 1 SECTION I ASSIGNMENT Our assignment has been for Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. to undertake a Retail Market Study and Store Strategy Analysis for the Village of Vernon Hills. The objective is to strengthen and expand the Village's retail base by determining the market and type of additional retail facilities in the Village. This is particularly critical considering the current economic climate and the rise in e-commerce sales. According to ICSC, over 8,000 stores closed across the country in 2018 and more store closings are expected with the bankruptcy of Sears and other retailers. The Retail Market Study and Strategy Analysis study focused upon specific big box stores, junior anchors, restaurants, and other possible retail uses that meet Vernon Hills’ market characteristics. The Retail Market Study provides the Village with a market-driven retail strategy and identifies development and redevelopment opportunities in the Village. Figure 1.A presents the Area Map. OBJECTIVES The specific Objectives of the Retail Market Study were as follows: A. A review of previous studies completed for the Village and the results that occurred. B. An assessment of the Village’s retail inventory by retail category to determine the need for additional retail development, along with the identification of retailer’s best suited to meet market demand. C. Analysis of present and future national and local trends affecting retail development in the Village and the likelihood of attracting new retail businesses to Vernon Hills. These trends include demographic, employment, income levels, consumer orientation, and retail sales. D. Re-examination of the existing retail base in the Village, existing performance levels, and retailers that are actively seeking locations in Chicago’s northern suburban market. E. An update of our inventory of the existing and proposed competitive retail concentrations that influence the Village of Vernon Hills. Specifically, we focused upon big box locations, types, sizes, performance levels, and any major store closings or relocations. We also identified any proposed competitive developments, along with their probable tenants and likely timing of projects. F. We examined Chicagoland’s newest major Lifestyle development ─ Mellody Farm in Vernon Hills ─located on the northeast corner of Illinois Route 60 and IL Route 21. The AREA MAP FIGURE 1.A Exil m INTERSTATE -~ HIGHWAY FEDERAL --8- HIGHWAY STATE -@J- HIGHWAY -€)- COUNTY HIGHWAY s;::: • OPERA POINTS OF INTEREST ca HOUSE tn ".,... 1-- AIRPORT i" .t: o K'Wp(){) STATE PARK OR ,,",STA'fPAR' FOREST PRESERVE "- zCON ~ lOON COUNTY NUMBERING O"-s~~!"-IW SYSTEM MILES o 2 3 4 5 6 -j o 2 4 6 8 -1Q '12 ----KilOMETERS 1 Inoh Equals Approximately l! Miles ~nnetka .~enuwo,", .r~ ~. Av<. ' .. ,Wilmette MEIANIPHY & ASSCX:IATES ,I(\C, Retail Market Study & Store Strategy Analysis – Village of Vernon Hills Page 2 258,638 square foot complex opened in September, featuring Whole Foods, Nordstrom Rack, REI, Barnes & Noble, HomeGoods, and a variety of restaurants and lifestyle-type retailers. G. A detailed driving time analysis was conducted for 20 minutes in all directions from the intersection of Illinois Route 21 and Illinois Route 60. The driving time was recorded by five-minute intervals. The detailed driving time analysis simulates the distances that consumers can drive during given time allocations. The detailed driving time analysis assists in the delineation of the Trade Area. H. Determination of the impact e-commerce is having upon retail sales in Vernon Hills. It is apparent that consumers are spending more frequently through e-commerce which is reducing shopping trips to brick and mortar stores. We will analyze these trends and determine their impact. We will also consider what the community can do to improve local retailing and spending by adding experiential type retailers and entertainment venues.