Coll. Antropol. 30 (2006) 1: 1–11 Original scientific paper The Impact of Interventions on a Pre-Industrial Austrian Alpine Population Ortrun Veichtlbauer1, Achim Zeileis2 and Friedrich Leisch3 1 Department for the Analysis of Culture and Science, IFF Klagenfurt University, Vienna, Austria 2 Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, Vienna, Austria 3 Institute of Statistics and Probability Theory, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria ABSTRACT The purpose of the present study is to gain a better understanding of the role of culture in demographic behaviour. The case study uses demographic data to illustrate cultural factors intervening in the social organisation of an Austrian vil- lage in the period 1700–1900. Two sets of potential intervening variables that might explain the effects of culture on de- mographic behaviour were investigated: population policies through normative regulations and institutional changes due to shifts in government. The paper employs statistical techniques in a structural change setting for evaluating the impact of policies and institutional changes on the demographic development. There is clear evidence that normative in- terventions concerning the fraction of illegitimate births and the marriage pattern were effective. Key words: demographic anthropology, time series analysis, intervention analysis, structural changes, illegitimacy, marriage pattern, Großarl, Austria Introduction The methodology of this study focuses on three ques- explanatory variables for the regression model. Section 5 tions: 1) Is it possible to evaluate the impact of institu- and 6 present and discuss our analysis concerning the tional change in a demographic time-series approach by problems formulated, along with results from interven- using statistical techniques? 2) Is there empirical evi- tion analysis. dence in the demographic data for the effectiveness of historical policy interventions? Using a mixture of quali- Our concern is with aggregate demographic behav- tative and quantitative approaches at both the micro- iour, and quantitative methods are necessary. When using and the macrolevel, the methodological challenge is to historical sources, combining individual sources with ag- develop a linear regression model to analyse the pattern gregate sources is a good way to relate our findings to of demographic time-series data that reflects historical broader issues of »society« or even »culture«. Although policy interventions and institutional changes. Conse- we decided not to distinguish between »culture« and »so- quently, our third question: 3) Does institutional change ciety«, throughout the paper, the notion of culture is used really matter? predominantly in anthropological terms. One definition Our data is from Großarl (a village in the Alpine re- of culture emphasising normative patterns stresses cul- gion of Salzburg) during the eighteenth and nineteenth ture as a set of norms, beliefs and techniques of how soci- centuries. The main research questions concerning the eties cope with their environments. In this, culture exists demographic pattern deal with the linkage between in normative formulations that assume a »law-like au- changing illegitimacy rates and changing seigniorial or thority in behaviour«1. In our case study, importance is national laws concerning sexual activity outside mar- attached to the process of behavioural change: Changing riage. Another focus is on the development of nuptiality normative regimes form a social texture for individual in the context of changing marriage restrictions. Histori- and collective strategies within demographic behaviour. cal arguments are essential prerequisites to provide the According to Fricke1, demographic behavioural diver- interface between the statistical evidence and the infer- gences from normative statements within a locale-spe- ences made. We employ historical data to define a set of cific institutional context cannot be taken as general Received for publication August 5, 2004 1 O. Veichtlbauer et al.: Pre-Industrial Austrian Alpine Population, Coll. Antropol. 30 (2006) 1: 1–11 »culture change«. Culture can also be seen as a symbolic and Capuchins. Protestant expulsions occurred during system with an immaterial internal logic. Defining the 1614 and 1615 under Archbishop Markus Sittikus of logic of a culture as a set of norms or values that influ- Hohenems (1612–1619). According to an archival sour- ence behaviour also gives meaning to the causal explana- ce11, 96 persons left the parish of Großarl in the year tions in the models employed, generally in socio-eco- 1615. In 1731, Archbishop Leopold of Firmian (1727–1744), nomic analyses of demographic behaviour. Fundamental issued an edict expelling some 30,000 Lutherans. For the to this study is the supposition that the flexibility of col- Großarl court district, Fiala12 documented a total of 551 lective and personal behaviour is a normal feature of the departures. Under the last two sovereign Archbishops, way populations adjust to changing conditions. The hy- Sigismund of Schrattenbach (1753–1771) and Hieronym- pothesis that »the structure, quantum and tempo of pop- us Count Colloredo (1772– 1803), it became more and ulation trends are bound by shifting identities«2 leads to more difficult to resist the continuous pressure from ex- the assumption that changing demographic patterns may pansionist neighbour states. Territorial integrity was be constituted largely by changes people make in their nevertheless preserved until the end of the 18th century. own or other’s collective representation. Salzburg was finally secularised with the Treaty of Pres- By emphasising the normative aspects of institutions, sburg in 1805, and passed into the possession of Austria, the concept of »social disciplining« offers a useful inven- thus becoming a province of a large empire. The first pe- tory of theories. In historical research, »social disciplin- riod of Austrian rule ended in 1809 when Napoleon's vic- ing« became an often-used key term and guiding concept. tory brought Salzburg under direct French administra- The theories of Weber3, Elias4 and Oestreich5,6 have illus- tion for one and a half years. From 1809 until the Peace trated the development of European culture in the early of Vienna, Salzburg was Bavarian, becoming part of Aus- th modern period through similar concepts. They all sup- tria again in 1816. The beginning of the 19 century was pose a more or less linear trend called »modernisation«, a period of profound change in Central Europe. The co- and they all stress the importance of the term »disci- alition wars against France, which entailed the dissoluti- pline«. Behrisch7 defines social discipline as a »conscious on of the autonomy of the religious principalities, created effort at changing a society's norms, behaviours and a fundamental crisis situation, leading to a multi-dimen- mental culture from above«, exercised at different levels sional structural break in the history of Salzburg, with or by different institutions: the state, the church and the enormous destruction of public and private resources. landowners. Vocelka8 has pointed out that the term »so- The marginalisation and peripherisation of Salzburg, to- cial disciplining« actually refers to a wider range of phe- gether with the psychological cost of rapidly-changing nomena than disciplinary practices with the intention of environments and political instability, meant complex creating obedient subjects. From his point of view, social stress for the population, social dilemmas and loyalty disciplining emerges as a fundamental concept for ana- conflicts. Finally, in 1850, Salzburg was awarded the lysing social structures and changes in the early modern right to have its own administration, yet only in 1861, af- period. The purpose of this study was to use the concept ter regional assembly elections, did an independent gov- th of social disciplining to describe normative interventions, ernment take office. A form of national identity in a 19 which in essence can be stated as »population policy«, century sense, linking town and mountain regions, was and to make this fundamental concept operational. achieved after the end of ecclesiastic principality through the narrative of collective fate of political and economic marginalisation13. However, any corrective measures by the authorities always seemed to be less effective in the Anthropology, History and Demography Alpine region. The latent resistance of the peasant soci- in a Case Study of Großarl ety in the Alpine region in Salzburg (which sometimes a) Political history even developed into open rebellion) must be considered in cultural-historical studies of this period. The knowledge gained from the historical analysis constitutes the basic framework for the statistical analy- sis, as we derive explanatory variables from this qualita- b) Political interventions – moral regulation tive information. In this section we provide a short over- Moral regulation projects are an important form of view of the historical development of Salzburg during the politics and governance in which seigniorial or state in- 9,10 period under investigation . stitutions problematise the conduct and behaviour of Until the late 18th century, the archbishops ruled as their population and impose regulation upon them14.In absolute royal sovereigns. Regional administration was Salzburg, since 161215 the governmentalisation of issues organised through local