Gourock-Dunoon Ferry Service – Feasibility Study of a Future Passenger and Vehicle Service with the Vehicle Portion being non-Subsidised Final Report for Transport Scotland In Association with The Maritime Group (International) Limited June 2013 Document Control Project Title: Gourock-Dunoon Ferry Service – Feasibility Study of a Future Passenger and Vehicle Service with the Vehicle Portion being non-Subsidised MVA Project Number: 101988 Document Type: Final Report Directory & File Name: D:\Gourock Dunoon\Report\20130628 Gourock Dunoon Report FINAL.Docx Document Approval Primary Author: Scott Leitham Other Author(s): Paul McCartney, Malcolm Parrott, Alexander Wilson, Stephen Canning Reviewer(s): Paul McCartney Formatted by: Nicola Milne Distribution Issue Date Distribution Comments 1 19/04/0213 Transport Scotland Initial Draft 2 21/04/2013 Transport Scotland & Steering Group Draft Report 3 28/05/2013 Transport Scotland Initial Final Draft Report 4 30/05/2013 Transport Scotland & Steering Group Final Draft Report 5 28/06/2013 Transport Scotland & Steering Group Final Report This report, and information or advice which it contains, is provided by MVA Consultancy Ltd and The Maritime Group (International) Ltd solely for internal use and reliance by its Client in performance of MVA Consultancy Ltd and The Maritime Group (International) Limited’s duties and liabilities under its contract with the Client. 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Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 1.1 Background 1.1 1.2 Route History 1.1 1.3 An Incremental Approach 1.3 1.4 Argyll Ferries 1.4 1.5 The Gourock-Dunoon Market 1.4 1.6 Structure of Report 1.6 2 Consultation 2.1 2.1 Introduction 2.1 2.2 The Consultations 2.1 2.3 Consultation Event 2.1 2.4 Questionnaire Returns 2.2 2.5 Other Emerging Issues 2.8 3 Socio-Economic Context 3.1 3.1 Introduction 3.1 3.2 Socio-Economic Data 3.1 3.3 Impact of Vehicle Ferry Withdrawal 3.8 4 Vessel Specification 4.1 4.1 Introduction 4.1 4.2 Service Restrictions 4.1 4.3 Upper Firth of Clyde Weather 4.2 4.4 Tides and Tidal Flow 4.4 4.5 Significant Wave height 4.4 4.6 Wave Frequency, Period and Length 4.4 4.7 Vessel selection for the Gourock-Dunoon Ferry Route. 4.5 4.8 Infrastructure 4.10 4.9 Vessel Outline Specifications and Estimated Operating Budgets 4.10 4.10 Noted Suggestions 4.12 5 Route Data 5-1 5.1 Introduction 5-1 5.2 Route Carryings 5-1 5.3 Who Uses these Ferries? 5-9 5.4 Revenue 5-10 6 Route Demand Projections 6-1 6.1 Introduction 6-1 6.2 Developing Scenarios 6-1 Gourock-Dunoon Ferry Service – Feasibility Study of a Future Passenger and Vehicle Service with the Vehicle Portion being non- Subsidised 1 Contents 7 Incremental Cost and Revenue Scenarios 7-1 7.1 Overview of Approach 7-1 7.2 Choice Modelling 7-1 7.3 Financial Modelling 7-6 7.4 Subsidy 7-15 8 Sensitivity Tests 8-1 8.1 Introduction 8-1 8.2 Crewing Sensitivity Test 8-1 8.3 Gross Tonnage Sensitivity Test 8-2 8.4 Harbour Dues Sensitivity Test 8-4 8.5 Competitive Response – What If? Tests 8-6 8.6 Summary 8-8 9 Summary and Conclusions 9-1 Tables Table 4.1 Proposed Vessel Characteristics 4.11 Table 4.2 Approximate Proposed Vessel Operational Costs 4.12 Table 5.1 Estimate of Foot / Vehicle based passengers 5-9 Table 5.2 Cowal Ferries Outturn Revenue per Trip 5-11 Table 7.1 Estimated vehicle-based market shares for potential town centre service 7-5 Table 7.2 15-year incremental revenue by vessel / growth scenario 7-7 Table 7.3 Annual incremental fuel and other vessel costs 7-8 Table 7.4 Berthing Dues discounts at Gourock 7-10 Table 7.5 Annual berthing dues, 2017 onwards, two-vessels, FP and V&P services 7-10 Table 7.6 Annual berthing dues, 2017 onwards, three-vessels, FP and V&P services 7-11 Table 7.7 Annual berthing dues, 2017 onwards, WF parity, FP and V&P services 7-11 Table 7.8 Pier Dues (paid on embarking and disembarking) 2012/13 7-12 Table 7.9 15-year Pier Dues estimates by scenario 7-13 Table 7.10 Overall 15-year incremental costs and revenue summary 7-14 Table 7.11 Foot-passenger Service Subsidy Estimates 7-16 Table 8.1 Sensitivity Test 1: Additional Crew 8-2 Table 8.2 Sensitivity Test 2a: Low Passenger & Vehicle Vessel GT 8-3 Table 8.3 Sensitivity Test 2b: High Passenger & Vehicle Vessel GT 8-3 Table 8.4 Sensitivity Test 3: Pier / Harbour Dues 8-5 Table 8.5 What If Test 1a: Western Ferries Fares Reduction 8-6 Table 8.6 What If Test 1b: Western Ferries Fares Reduction / Operator Parity 8-7 Table 8.7 What If Test 2: Western Ferries Frequency Increase 8-8 Gourock-Dunoon Ferry Service – Feasibility Study of a Future Passenger and Vehicle Service with the Vehicle Portion being non- Subsidised 2 Contents Figures Figure 1.1 Transfer of volumes from CalMac / Cowal to Western Ferries 1.5 Figure 2.1 Respondent Home Postcodes 2.2 Figure 2.2 Respondents’ Choice of Ferry Service 2.3 Figure 2.3 Respondents’ Journey Purposes 2.3 Figure 2.4 Respondents’ Journey Destinations 2.4 Figure 2.5 Respondents’ Mode of Travel on Ferry 2.5 Figure 2.6 Respondents’ Ticket Type 2.5 Figure 2.7 Multi-Journey Ticket Purchase Locations 2.6 Figure 2.8 Respondents’ Reasons for Choice of Ferry Service 2.6 Figure 2.9 Respondents’ Change in Ferry Use Since July 2011 2.7 Figure 2.10 Most Important Factors for Respondents in their Potential Use of a New Town Centre to Town Centre Passenger and vehicle Service 2.8 Figure 3.1 Economic Activity Rates (2001) 3.2 Figure 3.2 Employment by Occupation (2001) 3.3 Figure 3.3 Level of Qualifications (2001) 3.4 Figure 3.4 JSA Claimants (March 2013) 3.4 Figure 3.5 SIMD, Cowal (2012 Dataset) 3.5 Figure 3.6 Local Demographics (2011) 3.6 Figure 3.7 Income and Employment Deprivation (2008) 3.7 Figure 3.8 SNS Key Benefits Claimants – Dunoon and Argyll & Bute 3.9 Figure 5.1 Gourock-Dunoon and Other CalMac Routes, 2011 Passengers 5-2 Figure 5.2 Route Volumes 1992-2011, Passengers 5-2 Figure 5.3 Route Volumes 1992-2011, Cars 5-3 Figure 5.4 Gourock-Dunoon Town Centre Route – Total Sailings by Year 5-3 Figure 5.5 Gourock-Dunoon and the Clyde Network Volumes 5-4 Figure 5.6 CalMac Routes – Car Growth 2001-11 5-5 Figure 5.7 CalMac Network Trends 2001-11 5-5 Figure 5.8 Cowal / Argyll Foot-passenger Data, 2005-12 5-7 Figure 5.9 Cowal / Argyll Passenger Data, 1990-2012 5-8 Figure 6.1 Total Route Passenger Projections, 2015-29 6-3 Figure 6.2 Total Route Cars Projections, 2015-29 6-3 Figure 6.3 Market Share, 2010 6-4 Figure 7.1 Two vessel annual incremental revenue estimates, by demand scenario 7-7 Figure 8.1 Relationship between GT and Berthing Dues 8-4 Figure 8.2 Summary of 15-year, Scenarios 2 and 3 Net Revenues 8-9 Gourock-Dunoon Ferry Service – Feasibility Study of a Future Passenger and Vehicle Service with the Vehicle Portion being non- Subsidised 3 Summary Until July 2011, Cowal Ferries operated a passenger and vehicle ferry service across the Firth of Clyde between Gourock and Dunoon town centres.