1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Working draft, Washington, DC 20036 Please send comments Anthony H. Cordesman and suggested additions Phone: 1.202.775.3270 to Email: [email protected] [email protected] Iran and the Changing Web version: www.csis.org/burke/reports Military Balance in the Gulf Net Assessment Indicators Anthony H. Cordesman With the assistance of Grace Hwang March 26, 2019 Burke Chair Photo: -/ Getty Images In Strategy 1 Table of Contents The document has the following table of contents: Iran and the Changing Military Balance in the Gulf ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….2 The Changing and Uncertain Role of Key States ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….......5 The Changing Military Aspects of the Balance ……………………………………………………………..…………………………………………….…..7 Probable Patterns of Deterrence, War Fighting, and Escalations ……………………………………………………………………………….……..….….11 Setting the Stage: Clashes, U.S. Commitments, and Comparative Resources………………………………………………………..…………………………..23 Setting the Stage and Defining the Balance …………………………………………………………………………………….…………………..….…….24 The Dynamics of the Growing Crisis in U.S. and Iranian relations ..………………………………………………………………………………………...25 Uncertain Future U.S. Commitments and Current Bases and Forward Deployed Forces .…………………………………………………………………..38 Comparative Military Budgets and Arms Imports …..……………………………………………………………………………...………………………..47 The First Key Shift in the Military Balance: Changes in the Regional Struggle for Strategic Control and Influence ……………..………..…………..…...73 Shifts in the Regional Struggle for Strategic Control and Influence ………………………………………………………………………..………………..74 Iraq is a Pivotal Focus of the U.S. and Iranian Struggle for Influence in the Gulf ……………………………..………………………………..…………..86 Yemen, the Indian Ocean, and the Red Sea ………………………………………………………………………………………….………………..……..98 The Second Key Shift in the Military Balance: The Rising Impact of Iran’s Asymmetric Forces …………………………………..………..………..……..105 The Rising Impact of Iran’s Asymmetric Forces …………………………………………………………………………………..……………………….106 Naval-Missile-Air Forces and Threats to Shipping and the Gulf …………………………….……………………………………………………………..116 The Global Importance of the Flow f Persian-Arab Gulf Petroleum Exports ……………..………………………………………………………………..143 Limits to the Role of Land Forces …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..151 14 Appendix of Charts, Maps, Tables, and Graphics Map of Yemen: Sectarian Divisions ..……………………………………………………………………………………..….…..……….…………………..……..102 Map of Yemen: The Southern Movement ..……………………………………………………………………………………..………….………..……..………..103 Map of Deadliest Conflict Events in Yemen ..……………………………………………………………………………….……..………….…………………….104 Chart of Iran’s Complex Security Structure: 2019 ..…………………………………………………………………………..…………….……………………….107 Chart of DIA Estimate of Iranian Military Command and Control ..………………………………………………………………………………………………..108 Chart of DIA Assessment of Iranian Military Modernization Goals ..…………………………………………………..…………….………………………..…...109 Map of Key Naval Operating Areas in the Arabian Peninsula, Gulf of Oman, Indian Ocean, and Red Sea Areas ..………………………….………..…..…..…..119 Map of Gulf Powers’ Rivalries in the Indian Ocean ..………………………………………………………………………………….……………………..……..120 Chart of Iran and the Arab Gulf Naval Forces in 2020 ..…………………………………………………………..………………….………….…………..……...121 Map of Iranian Naval Commands ..………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………….123 Map of Vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz ..………………………………………………………………………………..………….…………….……..…….124 Chart of DIA Estimate of Iranian Naval Forces ..…………………………………………………………………………….………….………………….……….125 Map of Iranian Coastal Defense Cruise Missile Ranges ..……………………………………………………………………..……….………………….…..…….135 Map of Iranian Port Visits and Naval Exercises ..………………………………………………………………………………..……….………………………….137 Map of Iranian Attacks in May-September 2019 ..……………………………………………………………………………….………………………………….138 Map of Iranian Tanker Attacks in 2019 ..…………………………………..………………………………………………………….…………………….……….139 Chart of Iranian and Houthi Remotely Controlled Small Craft with Explosive Devices ..……..……………..………………………….…………………..……..140 Map of Peacetime Tanker and Cargo Ship Traffic in the Gulf Region: 6.3.2020 ..…………………………………………………….……………………..……..141 Map of Peacetime Tanker and Cargo Ship Traffic in the Gulf 6.3.2020 ..………………………………………….…………..…….………………………..…....142 Chart of The Strategic Importance of Gulf Exports and the Strait of Hormuz ..………………………………………..…………..….……………………………146 18 Appendix of Charts, Maps, Tables, and Graphics Chart of Total Oil Flows through the Strait of Hormuz ..………………………………………….…………………………………….………..…………………147 Map of The Strategic Importance of the Bab el-Mandeb ..……………………………………………….…………………………….………….……..………….148 Chart of The Strategic Importance of the SUMED Pipeline and Suez Canal (I) ..…………..………………………………………….…………….….………….149 Chart of The Strategic Importance of the SUMED Pipeline and Suez Canal (II) ..…………………………………………………….……………….…..……….150 Map of The Iran-Iraq Border Area ..…………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………….…..………154 Map of The Kuwaiti “hinge ” in Land Combat in the Gulf ..…………………………………………………………………………….………………………….155 Chart of Comparative Active Armed Forces, Estimated Reserves, and Active Paramilitary Personnel: 2019 ..………………………………..………..…………156 Chart of Comparative Active Army, National Guard, Royal/Presidential Guard, IRGC Military Personnel (Thousands) 2019 ..……….………………………...157 Chart of Comparative Total Land Force Major Weapons Holdings in 2019 ..………………….……………………………………….…………………..………158 Chart of Comparative Main Battle Tank Strength, 2019 ..……………………………………………………………………………………..…………………….159 Chart of Comparative Other Armored Vehicle Strength by Major Category, 2019 ..……………………………………..…………….……………..……………160 Chart of Comparative Artillery Strength by Major Category, 2019 ..…………………………………..……………………………….……………………..…….161 Map of Gulf Air Power and Air and Missile Bases ..……………………………………………………………………………………..………………………….167 Chart of Comparative Total Fixed-Wing Combat Aircraft Strength, 2020 ..…………………………………………………………….…………………….…….168 Chart of Comparative Modern Dual Capable and Strike Combat Aircraft Strength, 2020 ..……………………………..…………….………………………..….169 Chart of Comparative Fighter and Strike-Attack Combat Aircraft Strength by Type ..………………………………………………….………………………….170 Map of Iranian Combat Airbases and Major Combat Aircraft ..…………………………………………………………………………….……………………….173 Map of Iran’s Strategic Depth ..………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…….175 Map of Range of Iran’s Air Power ..…………………………………………………………………………………………..………….………………………….176 Map of Iranian (Pars) View of Gulf Air Threat ..……………………………………………………………………………………….………………………..…..177 19 The Second Key Shift in the Military Balance: The Rising Impact of Iran’s Asymmetric Forces 105 The Rising Impact of Iran’s Asymmetric Forces The second key shift in the balance in recent years has been the rising capabilities of Iran’s asymmetric forces. The charts and data that follow illustrate the fact that Iran’s asymmetric force elements go far beyond the Al Quds Force – which is Iran’s best-known element that trains and equips foreign military state and non-state forces. The following charts show Iran’s overall military structure, and it has other major force elements in its national training base, IRGC, and regular forces or ARTESH that contribute to such train and equip missions, along with its intelligence agencies like the MOIS and elements in its Foreign Ministry. All play a role in building politico-military relationships, recruiting “volunteers,” and building coalitions. There are often differences in policy and competition between given elements – a key part of every aspect of Iranian society and governance – but there is also cooperation as well. As noted earlier, every aspect of Iran’s forces have asymmetric elements, and Iran focuses on building strategic relationships outside its territory, on hybrid and “gray area” operations, and integrated political, military, and civil efforts rather than conventional war fighting. Once again, it tends to follow the strategic advice of Sun Tzu rather than focus on the perfect war strategy emphasized in most chapters of Clausewitz. The two elements where changes pose a rising challenge to the U.S, its Arab strategic partners, and U.S. coalition allies in Europe like Britain and France are: • First, the growth of its naval-missile-air capabilities in the Arab/Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean, and the approaches to the Bab el Mandeb and operations in the Red Sea. • Second, the combination of the rising precision conventional strike capabilities of its ballistic and air breathing missile forces, improved land-based air defenses, and ability to mix attacks by a full range of land, air, and sea-based strike-capabilities with the ability to influence rocket and missile strikes by other outside actors like the Hezbollah, Popular Military Forces in Iraq, and the Houthi in Yemen. The following sections of this analysis focus on Iran’s growing capabilities to use such forces in a tactical and strategic context. They do not attempt to predict major warfighting scenarios, which the previous analyses have shown are highly uncertain and more likely to evolve out of events than any grand strategy. This part focuses on first set of force changes – Iran’s the naval-missile-air capabilities – but it also touches upon its land forces and their capabilities for defense in depth, to threaten Iraq and Kuwait, and pose major