An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life Jennifer Kavanagh Michael D. Rich For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2314 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9994-5 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Pete Soriano. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Much has been written about the growing disregard for facts, data, and analysis in political and civil discourse in the United States. Increas- ingly, it seems that important policy debates, both within the federal government and across the electorate, are as likely to hinge on opinion or anecdote as they are on objective facts or rigorous analysis. However, policy decisions made primarily on the basis of opinion or anecdote can have deleterious effects on American democracy and might impose significant costs on the public. The current discourse about the diminishing role of, trust in, and respect for facts, data, and analysis is often hamstrung by the use of conflicting language and unclear or undefined terms. Without a common language with which to discuss the problem—which we are calling Truth Decay—the search for solutions becomes more difficult. This report seeks to address this gap by offering a clear definition of Truth Decay and an examination of its drivers and consequences—all with the aim of creating a foundation for more-meaningful discussion of the challenges to U.S. political and civil discourse. The report out- lines a research agenda designed to guide further study of Truth Decay and the formulation of responses. The report is the first of several pub- lications that will discuss Truth Decay in different contexts and from different angles. RAND Ventures The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solu- tions to public policy challenges to help make communities through- iii iv Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration out the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND Ventures is a vehicle for investing in policy solutions. Philanthropic contributions support our ability to take the long view, tackle tough and often-controversial topics, and share our findings in innovative and compelling ways. Funding for this venture was provided by gifts from RAND sup- porters and income from operations. RAND’s research findings and recommendations are based on data and evidence and therefore do not necessarily reflect the policy preferences or interests of its clients, donors, or supporters. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...............................................................vii Summary .......................................................................... ix Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 What Is Truth Decay? ............................................................. 1 A Note on Terminology ........................................................... 7 Objectives ..........................................................................11 Methodology ......................................................................14 Organization of This Report .................................................... 20 CHAPTER TWO Truth Decay’s Four Trends .....................................................21 Increasing Disagreement About Facts and Analytical Interpretations of Facts and Data .............................................................21 A Blurring of the Line Between Opinion and Fact .......................... 27 The Increasing Relative Volume, and Resulting Influence, of Opinion and Personal Experience over Fact .........................................31 Declining Trust in Formerly Respected Sources of Factual Information ....33 Data and Evidence for the Four Trends ....................................... 38 CHAPTER THREE Historical Context: Is Truth Decay New? ...................................41 The 1880s–1890s: Yellow Journalism and the Gilded Age .................. 42 v vi Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration The 1920s–1930s: The Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression .......51 The 1960s and Early 1970s: Civil Rights, Social Protest, and the Vietnam War .................................................................61 A Comparison with Today: Similarities and Differences .....................70 Historical Analogues in Other Countries ......................................76 Summary .......................................................................... 77 CHAPTER FOUR Drivers: What Is Causing Truth Decay? ....................................79 Cognitive Processing and Cognitive Biases ....................................81 Changes in the Information System ............................................95 Competing Demands on the Educational System .......................... 132 Polarization ...................................................................... 152 The Question of Agency ........................................................ 174 Summary: Truth Decay as a System .......................................... 186 CHAPTER FIVE The Consequences of Truth Decay ......................................... 191 Erosion of Civil Discourse ..................................................... 192 Political Paralysis ................................................................ 199 Alienation and Disengagement ................................................ 207 Uncertainty ...................................................................... 216 Summary ......................................................................... 221 CHAPTER SIX The Road to Solutions: A Research Agenda ............................... 223 Research Stream 1: Historical and International Analogues ............... 225 Research Stream 2: Data and Trends ......................................... 228 Research Stream 3: Mechanisms and Processes ............................. 237 Research Stream 4: Solutions and Responses ................................ 244 Summary and Way Ahead ..................................................... 253 APPENDIX Additional Information About Our Methodology ...................... 257 References ....................................................................... 265 Figures and Tables Figures S.1. Truth Decay as a System .......................................... xvii 2.1. Public Confidence in Institutions, 1973–2017 .................. 34 3.1. Public Trust in Government, 1958–2017 ........................ 68 4.1. Tweets per Day, 2006–2013 ...................................... 110 4.2. Share of Visits to U.S. News Websites, by Source ............. 115 4.3. Distance Between the Parties Along the Liberal-Conservative Dimension, 1879–2013 .................. 154 4.4. Percentage of States with Mixed-Party Senate Delegations, 1913–2017 ........................................... 155 4.5. Incumbent Reelection and Retirement Rates, 1946–2014 ... 157 4.6. Number of Landslide Counties in Presidential General Elections, 1976–2012.............................................. 158 4.7. Truth Decay as a System .......................................... 189 5.1. Number of Motions to End Filibusters, 1947–2017 ........... 202 5.2. Percentage of Total Legislation Enacted, 1973–2015 .......... 203 5.3. Trends in Political Efficacy, 1952–2012 ......................... 209 6.1. Research Agenda Implementation Plan ......................... 253 Tables S.1. The Four Trends of Truth Decay .................................. xi 1.1. Definitions and Examples of Key Terms ........................... 8 2.1. Possible New Metrics and Already-Collected Metrics, by Trend ..............................................................39 3.1. Assessment of Level of Truth Decay in the 1880s–1890s ...... 46 3.2. Assessment of Level of Truth Decay in the 1920s–1930s ...... 54 vii viii Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration 3.3. Assessment of Level of Truth Decay in the 1960s–1970s ...... 64 3.4. Evidence of Truth Decay in Different Eras .......................71 3.5. Characteristics