Orient Research Journal of Social Sciences ISSN Print 2616-7085 June, 2020, Vol.5, No. 1 [11-20] ISSN Online 2616-7093 Afghanistan after NATO Withdrawal: Insurgency and Peace Dialogue Mairaj ul Hamid 1 Memoona Mehmood2 Dr. Abdul Wadood 3 1. Lecturer, Department of Political Science, University of Malakand Chakdara, Dir Lower, KP, Pakistan, [email protected]. 2. M. Phil Scholar, Area Study Center Quaid-e-Azam University Islamabad, Pakistan 3. Assistant Prof/Chairperson, Department of International Relations, BUITEMS, Quetta, Baluchistan, Pakistan Abstract NATO and ISAF have practically ended their combat operations in Afghanistan in December 2014. Nevertheless, NATO and ISAF Forces are still present in limited number there. The point of concern here is to analyze the situations of stability in Afghanistan without the help of foreign troops. Here, it is also aimed to study that whether there is an escalation in insurgency, and terrorist attacks, or an improvement is seen in the overall scenario. Furthermore, Afghan National Security Forces and Afghan National Army faced severe crisis of desertion and defection due to no back up support from the government, lack of resources and absence of NATO Forces. The international community started the peace dialogue with the resistant forces to stop violence and be mainstreamed in Afghan politics and ensure stability. The Murree peace talks and Quadrilateral Coordination Group initiatives tried to persuade Taliban for a peaceful settlement with the Afghan government. The issue of insecurity should be solved through continued efforts for peace and stability by dialogue process, which the international community and NATO owe to Afghan nation. Key Words: NATO, ISAF, Afghanistan, Peace Dialogue Introduction NATO and ISAF attacked Afghanistan with the approval of United Nations Security Council in October 2001, under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which deals with the self-defense, with the aim to dismantle Al-Qaeda and overthrew Taliban from power (Khan, 2013). The mission was led by United States of America as she was affected from the twin towers incident and feared more such attacks. These foreign forces were present on Afghan soil for more than thirteen years in combating terrorism and finding the leadership of Al-Qaeda and Taliban. Furthermore, NATO has also worked for the uplifting of ruined infrastructure, mainstreaming drug addicted society, neutralizing extremist viewpoints, strengthening Afghan Security Apparatus, economic uplifting and politically stabilizing of Afghanistan. As President Barrack Obama assumed the charge in Oval Office, he announced his plan for withdrawal of forces from Iraq and Afghanistan (MacAskill, 2009). At first he withdrew the forces from Iraq and in 2011, sent more forces (about 30,000 troops) to Afghanistan as surge to already stationed troops there, with the aim to ensure complete withdrawal till the end of 2014. During this era of three years, NATO and U.S. troops tried to train the Afghan National Security Forces, and Afghan National Army, so that they could be made able to repel the insurgents’ attacks and defend their country from other aggressors (Crunin, 2013). At first it looked like Afghanistan has developed a professional army having the capability to ORJSS June 2020, Vol.5, No. 1 replace NATO and ISAF and take the charge of country’s security apparatus. Nevertheless, as the NATO started to leave Afghanistan, ANSF and ANA, started to defect and desert due to lack of resources accompanied by the increase in attacks from the different insurgent groups (Brown, 2015). It is very difficult to maintain such huge security apparatus through donations without any proper source of revenue and backup strong economy. Taliban were already operating in remote areas against the security forces but rise of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), in Afghanistan posed another credible threat to the security of Afghanistan, region and ANA and ANSF (Ahmad, 2015). Insurgency after NATO Withdrawal Anarchy and chaos blazoned in different cities of 34 provinces of Afghanistan soon after the NATO withdrawal. The insurgent and resistance forces got opportunity in the absence of NATO to tackle with the Afghan Security forces. Earlier in January, soon after NATO withdrawal, reports claimed the emergence and footholds of ISIS in different parts of Afghanistan (Bahrami, 2015). ISIS started recruitment in different vulnerable areas and also succeeded in getting loyalty of some aggrieved Taliban members. ISIS also claimed the responsibility of attack in Jalalabad killing dozens of people (Khalid & Rod, 2015). It compelled the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to acknowledge the presence of ISIS on Afghan land and termed it “wolves” and more dangerous that Taliban. ISIS also started training its recruits and comrades near Kabul in a camp named as Saad Bin Maaz camp (Adeel, 2015). These types of activities came to media when the NATO forces had left the country in the hands of Afghan National Army (ANA).On the other hand, even the further deteriorating situation compelled the First Vice President and former Army Chief, General Rasheed Dostam to personally lead operations against the insurgents (Khaama Press., 2015). Another report states that Afghanistan witnessed 10,000 insurgents and terrorist attacks in 2015. The month of May was the worst one which witnessed 1026, terrorist activities due to the Taliban’s successful spring offensive, while Helmand, Nangarhar and Faryab provinces witnessed most terrorist and violence activities (Daily Outlook, 2016). The report shows increased level of kidnappings, abductions by the insurgent groups and violence in different areas of Afghanistan. The country’s capital saw increased level of attacks on different important places, including Kabul city, different embassies and consulates, police training academy and Kabul airport. Kabul Airport in Shah Shaheed area of Kabul was attacked by the insurgents and made the workers of the airport for hours, left at least 16 people dead and more than 400 wounded (Mujib, 2015). Attack on Police training academy in Kabul left 36 people killed including 20 cadets. The Afghan parliament time and again convened different government officials including National Security Advisor HanifAthmar to explain the deteriorating security situations in the country (Kathy, 2015).The year 2015 witnessed the fall of Kunduz to the hands of Taliban which is can be termed as the first major offensive of the group after their demise from power in October. In Kunduz, the NATO airstrikes rescued the Afghan Security forces. Reports stated that the Afghan Security forces left their stations to Taliban and fled the battlefield which 12 Kashmir and Uncertainties: Dynamics of Conflicts Between India and Pakistan gave Taliban free hand to overrun the Governor house, local Jail, freeing hundreds of their friends and controlling Police headquarters. Many districts in the provinces of Faryab, Helmand, Herat, Farah, Ningarhaar and Sar-e-Pul provinces are under the control of armed groups including Taliban and ISIS (McFate, Denaburg, & Forrest, 2015). The United Nations has admitted this fact that Taliban are now more active in many areas of Afghanistan than ever. The increasing influence of ISIS in remote areas, especially Ningarhaar, Farah province and near the capital Kabul in the last year is adding fuel to the already chaotic situation of Afghanistan The international experts are terming the situations of Afghanistan one year after the NATO withdrawal as extremely unstable and are of the opinion that the rise of Da’esh (ISIS) after the NATO withdrawal is more dangerous than the presence of Taliban (Andrey, 2015). It has also been noted that more than 1,600 militants have sworn their allegiance to Dae’shin four provinces near and around Jalalabad, Ningarhaar (SPUTNIK, 2015). The following map shows different areas dominated by Taliban and ISIS. (Congressional Research Service Report, 2015) Furthermore, Afghanistan was unable to hold parliamentary elections as these were scheduled to be held in 2015, under the bilateral agreement between the rival candidates, Dr. Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. The internal rifts between the two leaders has hampered many decisions regarding elections as well as inclusion of full-fledged defense minister to the cabinet (Chriss, 2015). The parliament completed its tenure in June but interestingly it gave one-year extension to itself unconstitutionally (Mujib, 2015). The government is of the view that ongoing insurgency, instability and lack of funds hamper the holding of parliamentary elections (Keneth, 2015). The defection and desertion in Afghan National Army increased due to lack of back up support and increasing insurgency in different areas (Faridullah, 2016). According to a NATO official, Afghan National Army has 101 infantry units, out of which only one is termed as capable of fighting, 38 out of them are facing “massive problems”, and ten battalions each of them comprising of 600 soldiers are termed as not operational The casualties in Afghan Army raised by 42% as compared to 2014. 13 ORJSS June 2020, Vol.5, No. 1 On average, ANA loses 22 soldiers on daily basis due to increased level of terrorists and insurgent’s attacks. Although, the NATO countries are committed to support Afghan Security forces till the end of 2017, and are trying to extend it to 2020, but it failed to stop the vigorous defection and desertion in Afghan National Army (Ahmad, 2016). Peace Dialogue