View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Open Research Exeter College of Social Sciences and International Studies, Department of Politics The Power of the Media on Forming Public Opinion: The Analysis of the 2010 Constitutional Referendum in Turkey Submitted by Sinem Ayanoglu to the University of Exeter As a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics June 2015 This dissertation is available for library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. I certify that all the material in this dissertation that is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted to or approved by this or any other university for the award of a degree. ................................................................ Signature Abstract This thesis explores the role of the media in voting behaviour in Turkey in terms of the 2010 constitutional referendum. The media is a very important tool for both providing information and entertainment for people in Turkey. Thus, it can be claimed that the media are very powerful and have a large influence on audiences. In this study, I seek to explore the media’s power over citizens’ political choices. In other words, this thesis aims to reveal the affect the media content has on voters. To achieve this goal, I have chosen to analyse the 2010 referendum because of its special characteristics, which differentiate it from other referendums and elections in Turkey. Although there are many studies which examine the media effects on voting in the literature, these generally concentrate on developed democracies. Furthermore, general elections and presidential elections are more common in the field. The number of studies searching for the media’s effect on referendum voting in Turkey is very limited. For this reason, I prioritise referendums and the media systems to provide a better understanding of the Turkish case, as a developing democratic country. In addition to this, media content and public opinion constitute the main data for the methodological part of the study. In order to identify the influence of the media in the 2010 referendum, I employ a three-step method including firstly, an analysis of the public opinion survey data to understand voter preferences; secondly, media content analysis to see the media coverage on the referendum issue and the salience of the referendum in the media and; as the third and final step of the analysis, I link the public opinion data and the media content. My contribution to the field is the analysis of the media effects on referendum voting with a systematic and an extensive methodological approach, which is supported by the analysis of the media system in Turkey, as an example of developing country. I expect to contribute a comprehensive analysis of the referendum voting in respect of the media nested with the voter preferences to the literature on politics in Turkey. 1 Table of Contents Abstract: ………………………………………………………………………………1 List of Figures: ……………………………………………………………………….5 List of Tables: ……………………………………………………………...…………5 Abbreviations: ………………………………………………………………………..7 Chapter I: Introduction………………………………………………………….….....8 1.1. Overview of the Thesis…………………………………………………….……13 1.1.1. Purpose of the Research……………………………………….…….13 1.1.2. Scope and Significance of the Research……………………….…..14 1.1.3. Research Questions……………………………………………….….15 1.1.4. Limitations of the Research…………………………………………..17 1.2. Chapter Outline………………………………………………………………..…18 Chapter II: Historical Background: The Media and Referendums in Turkey.….21 2.1. Historical Development of the Media in Turkey……………………………....23 2.1.1. Landscape of Turkish Media………………………………….……...32 2.1.2. Legislative Regulations on the Media………………………….……44 2.2. History of Referendums in Turkey……………………………………………..58 2.3. Concluding Remarks…………………………………………………………….62 Chapter III: Review of the Literature on Media Systems and Referendums.…..64 3.1. Referendums…………………………………………………….……….……....65 3.1.1. The Notion of Referendum………………………….………….……..66 3.1.2. Constitutional Referendums…………………………………………..68 3.2. Referendums in Turkey and 12 September 2010 Referendum for Constitutional Amendments…………………………………………………………72 3.2.1. The Path to 2010 Referendum……………………….………………74 3.2.2. 12 September 2010 Referendum……………………………………77 3.2.3. Positions of Political Parties during the Referendum Period…….82 3.3. Voting Behaviour in Referendums: Role of Parties, Elites and Campaigns……………………………………………………………………………85 2 3.4. Media Effects: Role of the Mass Media in Referendums………….…….….89 3.5. Media Effects Theories at a Glance…………………………………………..95 3.6. Media Systems…………………………………………………………………100 3.7. Concluding Remarks……………………………………………………….….114 Chapter IV: Research Design and Methodology…………………………….….117 4.1. Analysing the Content: Qualitative versus Quantitative Analysis or Mixed Method………………………………………………………………...……………..118 4.2. Media Content and Survey Data Combination……………………………..119 4.3. Research Design………………………………………………………………121 Chapter V: People’s Choice: The Referendum in Public Opinion Surveys….132 5.1. Voting in Referendums…………………………………………………….....132 5.2. Research Design and Methods……………………………………………...137 5.2.1. Data……………………………………………………………….…..137 5.2.2. Research Design……………………………………………….……139 5.3. Analysis Results (I): Dynamics of Opinions ………………………………..142 5.4. Analyses Results (II): Determinants of Voting Decisions ………………...153 5.5. Concluding remarks………………………………………………………......164 Chapter VI: Analysis of the Media Content……………………………………..166 6.1. The Importance of the Media Content on Voting Behaviour…….……….166 6.2. Research Design……………………………………………………………...168 6.3. Qualitative Content Analysis ………………………………………….….…170 6.4. Quantitative Content Analysis …………………………………………..…..178 6.5. Concluding Remarks……………………………………………………….....191 Chapter VII: Public Opinion, Media and Voting………………………………...194 7.1. Research Design………………………………………………………………197 7.2. The Combination of Public Opinion and Media Content Data Results.....198 7.3. Concluding Remarks………………………………………………………….209 Chapter VIII: Conclusion…………………………………………………………..210 APPENDIX I………………………………………………………….……………..218 3 APPENDIX II………………………………………………………….……………..223 REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………...230 4 List of Figures Figure 5.1: The meaning of the constitutional amendments………………………149 Figure 5.2: The best sentence about the constitutional amendments……..…….150 Figure 5.3: Party Preferences & Vote intention………………………………….....157 Figure 5.4: Party preferences& Meaning of the Referendum……………………..158 Figure 5.5: Education& Vote intention& Party Preference…………………………163 Figure 6.1: Distribution of the Referendum News…………………………………..179 Figure 6.2: Visibility of the Referendum in the First Pages…….………………….182 Figure 6.3: Tone of the news items according to each outlet.. …………………..184 Figure 6.4: Balance between positive and negative statements week by week for all outlets…………………………………………………………….……………………..186 Figure 6.5: Numbers of YES/NO and Boycott Statements by Outlets…………...187 Figure 6.6: The most emphasized actors …………………………………………..189 Figure 6.7: Actors by outlets………………………………………………………….190 List of Tables Table 4.1: Outlets for Content Analysis………………….…………………………..121 Table 4.2: Comparison of the KONDA and WVS Data……………………...……..125 Table 4.3: Summary Variables: Content Measures…………………..…………….129 Table 5.1: Vote Intention and Referendum Results………………………………..143 Table.5.2: Vote Intention/2…………………………………………….......................144 Table.5.3: How can Kemal Kilicdaroglu impact CHP’s votes? .............................146 Table.5.4: Expectations for Referendum Results……………………….………….147 Table 5.5: Which will be actually voted in the referendum?..................................148 5 Table 5.6: Aim of the Referendum& Meaning of the Amendments……………………………………..…………………………………..….151 Table.5.7 Vote Intention& Perception on Referendum Reason………………...….152 Table 5.8 What is your final decision about your vote in the referendum?.............153 Table.5.9: Which reason affects your vote in general?..........................................154 Table 5.10: If there is a general election today that would you vote for?...............155 Table.5.11 Religiosity& Political Party………………………………………………..159 Table.5.12: Religiosity& Vote …………………………………………………………160 Table 5.13: Education& Vote Intention……………………………………………….161 Table 5.14 Education& Voting Reasons……………………………………………..162 Table 6.1: The source of information/opinion about these constitutional amendments……………………………………………………………..………………170 Table 6.2: Proportion of the Referendum News in the First Pages ………………181 Table 6.3: Tone of the Items…………………………………………………….........183 Table 6.4: Boycott Statements in all News Items…………………………………...188 Table 7.1: The source of information…………………………………………………198 Table 7.2: Newspaper Preference ………………………………………….…...…...199 Table 7.3: Newspaper Preferences & Vote Preferences……………………..…….200 Table 7.4: Newspaper preference & Party preference………………….………......202 Table 7.5: Party & Newspaper & Vote Preference…………………………………..203 Table 7.6: TV Preferences & Vote Intention………………………………………….204 Table 7.7: TV & Party & Vote…………………………………….…………………….205 Table 7.8: Voting on Referendum: Media, Party Support and Social Indicators………………………………………………………………………………..207 6 Abbreviations AA: Anadolu Ajansı/ Anatolia Agency AAPOR: American Association for Public Opinion Research AKP: Adalet ve Kalkınma