Appendix 9 Multiple Category Evaluation - Findings and Conclusions December 2010 APPENDIX 9 Multiple Category Evaluation - Findings and Conclusions December 2010 Prepared for: Prepared by: 20 Bay Street, Suite 901 Toronto ON M5J 2N8 In Association with: APPENDIX 9 MULTIPLE CATEGORY EVALUATION ‐ FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................ vii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Background .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Study Purpose .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.3. Document Structure ................................................................................................................. 1 2. Evaluation Process ....................................................................................................................... 2 2.1. Reference case ......................................................................................................................... 2 2.2. Evaluation Process ................................................................................................................... 5 2.3. High Level Evaluation Findings and Conclusions ...................................................................... 5 3. Option Description ....................................................................................................................... 6 3.1. Option Description ................................................................................................................... 6 4. Detailed Evaluation Framework ................................................................................................ 11 4.1. Multiple category evaluation Framework .............................................................................. 11 4.2. Qualitative Assessment Scoring ............................................................................................. 15 4.3. Remaining Document Structure ............................................................................................. 15 5. Environmental and Health Assessment ..................................................................................... 16 5.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 16 5.2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change ................................................................... 16 5.3. Regional Air Quality ................................................................................................................ 18 5.4. Local Air Quality ..................................................................................................................... 20 5.5. Other Health ........................................................................................................................... 25 5.6. Noise and Vibration ................................................................................................................ 28 5.7. Terrestrial Ecosystem ............................................................................................................. 33 5.8. Aquatic Ecosystem ................................................................................................................. 36 5.9. Effects on Parks/open spaces ................................................................................................. 39 6. Transportation Assessment ....................................................................................................... 40 6.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 40 6.2. Transportation Efficiency of Users ......................................................................................... 40 6.3. Transportation Efficiency of Non‐Users ................................................................................. 45 i GO Electrification Study Final Report – Appendix 9 – December 2010 6.4. Reliability ................................................................................................................................ 47 6.5. Transit Network / System Access ........................................................................................... 48 6.6. Comfort and Expandability ..................................................................................................... 49 7. Social Community Assessment .................................................................................................. 52 7.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 52 7.2. Land Use Integration .............................................................................................................. 52 7.3. Social And Community ........................................................................................................... 54 8. Economic Assessment ................................................................................................................ 58 8.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 58 8.2. Cost Effectiveness .................................................................................................................. 58 8.3. Land Use, Development and Land Value ............................................................................... 61 8.4. Property Effects ...................................................................................................................... 64 8.5. Wider Economic Impacts ....................................................................................................... 65 9. Financial Assessment ................................................................................................................. 68 9.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 68 9.2. Capital Costs ........................................................................................................................... 68 9.3. Operating and Maintenance Costs ......................................................................................... 73 9.4. Farebox Revenues .................................................................................................................. 75 10. Delivery Assessment .................................................................................................................. 79 10.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 79 10.2. Constructability .................................................................................................................. 79 10.3. Acceptability ....................................................................................................................... 81 11. Detailed Evaluation Summary.................................................................................................... 86 11.1. Multiple Category Evaluation Summary Table ................................................................... 86 12. Analysis of Uncertainties ......................................................................................................... 114 12.1. Sensitivity Testing ............................................................................................................. 114 12.2. Scenario Testing ................................................................................................................ 120 12.3. Sensitivity and Scenario Testing ‐ Conclusions ................................................................. 122 12.4. Capital Cost Updates ........................................................................................................ 124 12.5. Review of Electric Multiple Units ..................................................................................... 125 ii GO Electrification Study Final Report – Appendix 9 – December 2010 FIGURES Figure 1 Current Annual Emissions in GTHA ............................................................................. viii Figure 2 Total User Journey Time Savings by Corridor ($m 2010 Present Values) ...................... x Figure 3 Reference Case GO Transit Network Corridors ............................................................. 2 Figure 4 Reference Case: Schematic Illustrating Service Assumptions ...................................... 4 Figure 4 Option Evaluation Process.............................................................................................. 5 Figure 5 Schematic Diagram of Option 1 ..................................................................................... 7 Figure 6 Schematic Diagram of Option 2 ..................................................................................... 8 Figure 7 Schematic Diagram of Option 3 ..................................................................................... 8 Figure 8 Schematic