Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040 Exploring the S&T Edge NATO Science & Technology Organization DISCLAIMER The research and analysis underlying this report and its conclusions were conducted by the NATO S&T Organization (STO) drawing upon the support of the Alliance’s defence S&T community, NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT) and the NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCIA). This report does not represent the official opinion or position of NATO or individual governments, but provides considered advice to NATO and Nations’ leadership on significant S&T issues. D.F. Reding J. Eaton NATO Science & Technology Organization Office of the Chief Scientist NATO Headquarters B-1110 Brussels Belgium http:\www.sto.nato.int Distributed free of charge for informational purposes; hard copies may be obtained on request, subject to availability from the NATO Office of the Chief Scientist. The sale and reproduction of this report for commercial purposes is prohibited. Extracts may be used for bona fide educational and informational purposes subject to attribution to the NATO S&T Organization. Unless otherwise credited all non-original graphics are used under Creative Commons licensing (for original sources see https://commons.wikimedia.org and https://www.pxfuel.com/). All icon-based graphics are derived from Microsoft® Office and are used royalty-free. Copyright © NATO Science & Technology Organization, 2020 First published, March 2020 Foreword As the world Science & Tech- changes, so does nology Trends: our Alliance. 2020-2040 pro- NATO adapts. vides an assess- We continue to ment of the im- work together as pact of S&T ad- a community of vances over the like-minded na- next 20 years tions, seeking to on the Alliance. develop military capabilities fit for the geostrategic This assessment is based on a review of selected na- challenges of today and the future. As such, NATO tional and international S&T foresight and futures nations must remain at the forefront of innovation, studies; multi-national workshops; and, technol- S&T based or otherwise while facing challenges ogy watch activities conducted by the Science & from all strategic directions and across all opera- Technology Organization. I gratefully acknowledge, tional domains. To do so requires an appreciation the collaboration and support provided by Alliance of the potential future security environment, espe- and Partner defence R&D communities, the NATO cially the military and security challenges presented international staff, Allied Command Transforma- by emerging or disruptive S&T. Drawing upon tion (ACT), and the NATO Communication and the intellectual strength and knowledge advantage Information Agency (NCIA). of the Alliance, Science & Technology Trends: 2020-2040 provides just such an assessment. The informed insights and information provided will help guide NATO at all levels and the Alliance as we prepare to evolve and adapt to the future security environment and the challenges ahead. Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach Dr. Bryan Wells Chairman of the Military Committee NATO Chief Scientist ToC Table of Contents Foreword .......................................................... iii Executive Summary ................................................ vi 1 Introduction ........................................................ 1 1.1 Context 1 1.2 Purpose 2 1.3 Approach 3 1.4 Overview 4 2 Science & Technology Trends ....................................... 6 2.1 S&T Development 6 2.2 Assessment 10 2.3 Disruptive Technologies 13 2.4 Emergent Technologies 19 2.5 Convergence, Inter-Dependencies and Synergies 23 2.6 Countering EDT Threats 25 2.7 Summary 25 3 Contextual Trends ................................................. 27 3.1 Introduction 27 3.2 Innovation and Investment 27 3.3 Strategic Drivers 30 3.4 Defence and Security 37 v 4 Conclusion ........................................................ 39 Appendices ....................................................... 40 A Data .............................................................. 41 B Artificial Intelligence ............................................... 50 C Autonomy ......................................................... 59 D Quantum Technologies ............................................ 69 E Space Technologies ............................................... 75 F Hypersonics ....................................................... 86 G Biotechnology & Human Enhancement .............................. 94 H Novel Materials and Manufacturing ................................. 104 I Methodology ..................................................... 112 I.1 Description 112 I.2 NATO Reports and Studies 112 I.3 NATO STO Technology Watch 114 I.4 Workshops 117 I.5 Alliance and Partner Research Programs 117 I.6 Attention Analysis 118 I.7 Studies and Meta-Analyses 121 Bibliography ..................................................... 122 Symbols, Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................ 147 EX Executive Summary Science & Technology Trends: 2020-2040 provides an assessment of emerging or disruptive Science & Technologies (S&T) and their potential impact on NATO military operations, defence capabilities, and political decision space. This assessment draws upon the collective insights of the NATO Science & Technology Organization (STO), its collaborative network of over 6000 active scientists, analysts, researchers, and engineers, and associated research facilities. These insights have been combined with an extensive review of the open-source S&T futures literature and selected national research programs. The report aims to assist current and future military and civilian decision-makers in understanding emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs). In particular, it focuses on: • Why EDTs are important to future Alliance activities; • How they are expected to develop over time; and, • What this will mean to the Alliance from an operational, organisational or enterprise perspective? Ultimately, this assessment is intended to provide focus to Alliance S&T efforts and will: (1) at senior level provides an overview of the threats and opportunities presented by EDTs; (2) at a staff level, assist in guiding the design of future military concepts and capabilities; and, (3) overall, aid policymakers in preparing Alliance forces and the NATO enterprise for mission success in the future security environment. Over the next 20 years, four overarching characteristics can be expected to define many key advanced military technologies: • Intelligent: Exploit integrated AI, knowledge-focused analytic capabilities, and symbiotic AI- human intelligence to provide disruptive applications across the technological spectrum; • Interconnected: Exploit the network of virtual and physical domains, including networks of sensors, organisations, individuals and autonomous agents, linked via new encryption methods and distributed ledger technologies; • Distributed: Employ decentralised and ubiquitous large-scale sensing, storage, and computation to achieve new disruptive military effects; and, • Digital: Digitally blend human, physical and information domains to support novel disruptive effects. Technologies with these characteristics are bound to increase the Alliance’s operational and organi- sational effectiveness through: the development of a knowledge and decision advantage; leveraging of vii emergent trusted data sources; increased effectiveness of mesh capabilities across all operational domains and instruments of power; and, adapting to a future security environment replete with cheap, distributed and globally available technologies. Eight highly interrelated S&T areas were considered to be major strategic disruptors over the next 20-years. The first seven EDTs were approved by Defence Ministers in October 2019, while an eighth (Materials) was added as an area for future consideration and development by the STO. These S&T areas are either currently in nascent stages of development or are undergoing rapid revolutionary development. The EDTs are: Data Artificial Intelligence (AI) Autonomy Space Hypersonics Quantum Biotechnology Materials Technological development in Data, AI, Autonomy, Space and Hypersonics are seen to be predom- inately disruptive in nature, as developments in these areas build upon long histories of supporting technological development. As such, significant or revolutionary disruption of military capabilities is either already on-going or will have a significant impact over the next 5-10 years. New developments in Quantum, Biotechnology and Materials are assessed as being emergent, requiring significantly more time (10 - 20 years) before their disruptive natures are fully felt on military capabilities. Disruptive effects will most likely occur through combinations of EDTs and the complex interactions between them. The following synergies and inter-dependencies are projected to be highly influential for the development of future military capabilities: • Data-AI-Autonomy: The synergistic combination of Autonomy, Big Data and AI using intelligent, widely distributed, and cheap sensors alongside autonomous entities (physical or virtual) will leverage new technologies and methods to yield a potential military strategic and operational decision advantage. • Data-AI-Biotechnology: AI, in-concert with Big Data, will contribute to the design of new drugs, purposeful genetic modifications, direct manipulation of biochemical reactions, and living sensors. • Data-AI-Materials: AI, in-concert with Big Data, will contribute to the