The Nepal Seed and Fertilizer Activity Mid-Term Performance Evaluation Report July 2019 This publication was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared independently by CAMRIS International, Inc. NEPAL SEED AND FERTILIZER MID-TERM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION July 2019 Evaluation Mechanism Number: AID-367-C-15-00001 DISCLAIMER This publication is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. i TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................................... 2 List of Tables .................................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................... iv ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS......................................................................................... v ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 1 1.0 EVALUATION PURPOSE ...................................................................................................... 5 2.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND ................................................................................................... 5 3.0 EVALUATION QUESTIONS AND METHODOLOGY ........................................................ 8 5.0 RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................ 30 APPENDIX I: EVALUATION STATEMENT OF WORK ...................................................................... 34 APPENDIX II: RESULTS FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX III: SUPPLEMENTARY USAID QUESTIONS .................................................................... 48 APPENDIX IV: REVIEWED LITERATURE ......................................................................................... 50 APPENDIX V: GETTING TO ANSWERS MATRIX ............................................................................. 52 APPENDIX VI: DETAILED METHODOLOGY .................................................................................... 57 APPENDIX VII: DATA COLLECTION INSTRUMENTS ...................................................................... 63 APPENDIX VIII: RESULTS OF SECONDARY DATA REVIEW ............................................................. 68 APPENDIX IX: RESULTS FOR ADDITIONAL USAID QUESTIONS .......................................................... 85 APPENDIX X: NSAF 2018 TO 2019 ANNUAL WORK PLAN FOR FERTILIZER .................................. 99 APPENDIX XI: NSAF NEW HYBRID MAIZE VARIETIES DEPLOYMENT AND SEED SCALING TIMEFRAME ........................................................................................................................................ 100 APPENDIX XII: DISCLOSURE OF ANY CONFLICT OF INTEREST ......................................................... 101 ii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Evaluation Questions ............................................................................................................................................ 8 Table 2: District Selection ................................................................................................................................................. 10 Table 3: Overview of Data Collection Effort ................................................................................................................ 10 Table 4: NSAF Maize Seed Technologies with Potential to Increase Farmer Productivity ............................... 12 Table 5: NSAF Rice Varieties with the Highest Yields Shown in Trials .................................................................. 12 Table 6: Users Perceptions of NSAF Technologies with Productivity Potential .................................................. 16 Table 7: Comparison of NSAF GESI Plan with Performance Evaluation Fieldwork ............................................ 28 Table 8: Food, Crop and Fertilizer Data (2007 to 2016) ........................................................................................... 69 Table 9: Maize Area, Production and Yield in NSAF Districts ................................................................................. 70 Table 10: Lentil Area, Production and Yield in NSAF Districts ............................................................................... 71 Table 11: NSAF Baseline Input Data for Project Crops ............................................................................................. 73 Table 12: Seed Procurement Sources for Different Crops (in percent) ................................................................ 80 iii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: NSAF Provinces and Districts ........................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 2: NSAF Theory of Change .................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 3: Crop Production (Mt) ....................................................................................................................................... 72 Figure 4: Crops Yield Trend (Kg/Ha.) ............................................................................................................................. 72 Figure 5: Trends in the Nutritional Status of Children ............................................................................................... 74 Figure 6: Map of the Food Security Situation of Nepal (mid-July to mid-November 2017) .............................. 76 Figure 7: The Seed Market System .................................................................................................................................. 78 Figure 8: Cereal Seed Sector Sales Growth in Nepal (2014–2017) ........................................................................ 79 Figure 9: Vegetable Seed Sector Sales Growth in Nepal (2014–2017) ................................................................... 79 Figure 10: Main Actors in the Fertilizer System ........................................................................................................... 80 Figure 11: Index of Real Agricultural Spending, 2008-2015 ....................................................................................... 82 Figure 12: Number of Households Purchasing Fertilizers in Different Months in 2016/17 ............................... 83 Figure 13: Geographic Variation in Share of Farmers Reporting Supply Constraints by Agro-Ecological Zone (2016) .......................................................................................................................................................................... 84 Figure 14: Geographic Variation in Share of Farmers Reporting Supply Constraints by Development Region (2016) ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 84 iv ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ADS Agriculture Development Strategy AICL Agriculture Input Company Limited APR Annual Performance Review CBSP Community-based Seed Producer Group CDCS Country Development Cooperation Strategy CDD Crop Development Directorate CEAPRED Centre for Environmental and Agricultural Policy Research, Extension and Development CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center COP Chief of Party COR Contracting Officer’s Representative DAP Di-ammonium Phosphate DCC District Coordination Committee DO Development Objective DSSPRO District Seed Self-sufficiency Programme FGD Focus Group Discussion FTF Feed the Future FY Fiscal Year GD Group Discussion GFSS Global Food Security Strategy GIS Geographic Information System (or Services) GON Government of Nepal ICT Information Communication Technology IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFDC International Fertilizer Development Centre IP Implementing Partner ISFM Integrated Soil Fertility Management KISAN Knowledge-Based Integrated Sustainable Agriculture and Nutrition LxLB Laxmi Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDAGs Marginalised and Disadvantaged Groups MEL Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning MoALD Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development NARC Nepal Agriculture Research Council NPC National Planning Commission PCU Polymer Coated Urea PMAMP Prime Minister’s Agricultural Modernization Program SEAN Seed Entrepreneurs’ Association of Nepal SEED Social, Environmental, and Economic Development Office (USAID/Nepal) SOW Scope of Work SQCC Seed Quality Control Centre STC Salt Trading Corporation TOC Theory of Change UDP Urea Deep Placement USAID United States Agency for International Development ZOI Zone of Influence v Team Members John Spilsbury, Evaluation Team Lead Gana Pati Ojha, Sector Specialist Aruna Palikhe, Market Sector and GESI Expert Meekha