University of North Dakota UND Scholarly Commons Theses and Dissertations Theses, Dissertations, and Senior Projects January 2015 Evaluating Sedimentary Basins For Geothermal Power Production Potential And Bottom-Hole Temperature Corrections Anna Marguerite Crowell Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.und.edu/theses Recommended Citation Crowell, Anna Marguerite, "Evaluating Sedimentary Basins For Geothermal Power Production Potential And Bottom-Hole Temperature Corrections" (2015). Theses and Dissertations. 1761. https://commons.und.edu/theses/1761 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses, Dissertations, and Senior Projects at UND Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of UND Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. EVALUATING SEDIMENTARY BASINS FOR GEOTHERMAL POWER PRODUCTION POTENTIAL AND BOTTOM-HOLE TEMPERATURE CORRECTIONS by Anna M. Crowell Bachelor of Science, Management/Computer Information Systems, Park University, 2003 Master of Science, Geology, University of North Dakota, 2011 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of North Dakota in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Grand Forks, North Dakota August 2015 PERMISSION Title Evaluating Sedimentary Basins for Geothermal Power Production Potential and Bottom-Hole Temperature Corrections Department Geology and Geological Engineering Degree Doctor of Philosophy In presenting this dissertation in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a graduate degree from the University of North Dakota, I agree that the library of this University shall make it freely available for inspection. I further agree that permission for extensive copying for scholarly purposes may be granted by the professor who supervised my thesis work or, in his absence, by the chairperson of the department or the dean of the Graduate School. It is understood that any copying or publication or other use of this thesis or part thereof for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. It is also understood that due recognition shall be given to me and to the University of North Dakota in any scholarly use which may be made of any material in my dissertation. Anna M. Crowell July 17, 2015 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... vi ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................1 Statement of Hypothesis .................................................................................1 Previous Work ................................................................................................1 Geothermal Energy: The Only Sustainable Base Load Power Source ...........3 Evaluating Geothermal Potential in Select Basins..........................................6 II. GEOSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF BOTTOM-HOLE TEMPERATURES ....8 III. EVALUATING BOTTOM-HOLE TEMPERATURE CORRECTION SCHEMES ..........................................................................................................19 IV. ENERGY-IN-PLACE ESTIMATE FOR THE DENVER BASIN ....................41 V. ENERGY-IN-PLACE ESTIMATES FOR THE ILLINOIS AND MICHIGAN BASINS .........................................................................................55 VI. PLAY FAIRWAY ANALYSIS ..........................................................................69 VII. CONCLUSIONS...............................................................................................104 APPENDICES .................................................................................................................106 Appendix A. List of Acronyms ..............................................................................107 SOURCES CITED ...........................................................................................................109 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 A temperature/depth plot for well 5086 in the Williston Basin along with bottom- hole temperatures .....................................................................................................2 2 Areas where feasible solar collection may occur in the United States ....................4 3 Average wind speed for the United States. ..............................................................4 4 Heat flow map created by Anna Crowell and modified by the Department of Energy to show current geothermal power activities in the United States ...................................................................................5 5 Total Percentage Energy by source (TPES) for the world, comparing 1973 to 2012 ............................................................................................................5 6 Comparison of CO2 emissions from 1973 to 2012 .................................................6 7 Graph of Energy in Place for the Williston Basin ...............................................105 v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wishes to thank Dr. William Gosnold, Dr. Gregory Vandeberg, Dr. Michael Mann, Dr. Dexter Perkins, Dr. Stephan Nordeng, and Dr. James “Josh” Crowell, James Crowell II, and Dr. Randi Clow. This work could not have been completed without your kindness, understanding, love, and guidance. vi ABSTRACT At present, the risks and costs associated with geothermal energy wildcat exploration are prohibitive. With improved technology, the future may be brighter, and a play fairway analysis, for geothermal exploration can guide development. Comparing geophysical data with geothermal gradient allows identification of potentially economic areas of interest. The play fairway analysis is a common tool used by the petroleum industry to identify areas for potential exploration. The analysis identifies areas in the Denver, Illinois, Michigan, and Williston Basins with the highest development potential. A great deal of data have potential for a play fairway analysis, but data quality is problematic due to systematic errors in bottom-hole temperatures (BHTs). Corrections to bottom-hole temperatures are necessary due to the perturbation of temperature caused by the drilling mud, and can range from 5 to 30 °C. Correction schemes for bottom-hole temperatures can be applied to both the energy-in-place estimates and play fairway analyses. The Harrison equation is the most accurate for basins less than 4.5 km deep. The Kehle correction is the most accurate for basins deeper than 4.5 km. Chapter II explains why BHTs grouped by depth are more statistically robust than those grouped by geochronological unit. Chapter III demonstrates why the Harrison Equation is the best correction method to use for BHTs. Chapters IV and V give the volumetric energy-in-place for the Denver, Illinois, and Michigan Basins for discrete temperature ranges, and Chapter 6 provides the final Play Fairway Favorability maps. vii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Statement of Hypothesis The Environmental Protection Agency created the DRASTIC model in 1971 to identify areas of potential water contamination. We have now used that model for geothermal play fairway analysis and hypothesize that we will be able to complete initial evaluation of a target area for geothermal feasibility without the cost of drilling. If the model is successful, it will identify areas for geothermal energy production by highlighting areas with high geothermal gradient, low magnetic intensity, low bouger gravity anomaly, and low slope. Previous Work The Department of Energy initiated the State Coupled Geothermal Program in the mid-70s to identify areas in the United States with high geothermal potential. Several organizations contributed, but in most cases the energy estimated was based on only one or aquifers per basin. The initiative resulted in three USGS Circulars that were published: Circular 726 in 1975, Circular 790 in 1978, and Circular 892 in 1980 (USGS, 1975; USGS, 1978; USGS, 1980). Soon after Circular 892 was published, funding ended for the project, and the industry lay stagnant until the mid-2000s when the Recovery Act was 1 introduced and funded. New work was completed by the University of North Dakota, including methods of examining bottom-hole temperature (BHT) correction, and a method for predicting temperature at depth for a well using thermal conductivity and heat flow data. The model to predict temperature at depth is called TSTRAT (Gosnold et al., 2012), an example of which is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. A temperature/depth plot for well 5086 in the Williston Basin along with bottom-hole temperatures. The continuous line represents true formation temperature, and is plotted against measured local bottom-hole temperatures to show the wide margin of error. 2 Geothermal Energy: The Only Sustainable Base Load Power Source Wind (Figure 2), solar (Figure 3), and geothermal (Figure 4) sources only provide only 1.1% of the world’s energy (Figure 5) (IEA, 2014).Wind and Solar sources cannot provide energy at all times, so they are called ‘intermittent’ sources. Geothermal energy, however, can also be turned on or off as needed, and is therefore considered a ‘base