The Future of Human Spacefl ight Space, Policy, and Society Research Group Massachusetts Institute of Technology December, 2008 Stephen K. Robinson riding the Space Station Remote Manipulator System, STS-114 The Future of Human Spacefl ight Executive Summary 2 Contributors David A. Mindell (Director) Threshold of a New Era 3 Scott A. Uebelhart Slava Gerovitch Fifty years of Human Spacefl ight 4 Jeff Hoffman Ephraim Lanford Why Fly People into Space? 6 John Logsdon Teasel Muir-Harmony Primary Objectives 7 Dava Newman Sherrica Newsome Policy Implications 9 Lawrence McGlynn Retirement of the Space Shuttle 11 Rebecca Perry Asif Siddiqi The International Space Station 11 Zakiya A. Tomlinson John Tylko To the Moon and Mars 12 Annalisa L. Weigel Laurence R. Young Renewing Global Leadership 13 Conclusion 14 For more information: About the Authors 15 http://web.mit.edu/mitsps Contact: [email protected] Sppace, Policyli y, Design: Rebecca Perry & Socociety Images: All images from NASA The MIT Space, Policy, and Society Research Group except Mars BioSuit™ courtesy of is an interdisciplinary group of engineers, historians, Professor Dava Newman. and policy scholars. This work was made possible by Mars BioSuit™ a grant from the L. Dennis Shapiro ‘55 Fund at MIT. Photograph: Gui Trotti Illustration: Cam Brensinger Copyright © 2008 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved. 1 Executive Summary The Obama administration and Congress should develop a human spacefl ight policy that makes clear The United States stands at the threshold of a new era of statements on: human spacefl ight. In its fi rst term, the new administration will make the most important decisions in a generation • Primary and secondary objectives about this endeavor. What are those decisions, and how for human spacefl ight should they be made in the best interests of the country? • Ethics of acceptable risk to human • When should the United States life in space exploration retire the Space Shuttle? • How should the nation utilize the • Relationship between the International Space Station? envisioned level of funding and the • Should the United States return to the moon? risks to human life If so, how and on what schedule? • Importance and priority of • How should future plans balance the moon, international collaborations Mars, and other possible destinations? Ultimately, these decisions derive from the larger question: • Utilization of the International Space Why fl y people into space? Station To answer these questions we rethink the rationales for • Clarifi cation of moon/Mars strategy government-funded human spacefl ight and then address current policy questions in light of those rationales. Furthermore, we recommend: We defi ne primary objectives of human spacefl ight as those that can only be accomplished through the physi- • NASA should continue to fl y the Space Shuttle to cal presence of human beings, have benefi ts that exceed complete the current manifest and then retire it. the opportunity costs, and are worthy of signifi cant risk to • The United States should develop a broad, human life. These include exploration, national pride, and funded plan to utilize the ISS through 2020 to international prestige and leadership. Human spacefl ight support the primary objectives of exploration. achieves its goals and appeals to the broadest number of • A new policy should direct the balance people when it represents an expansion of human experi- between the moon, Mars, and other points ence. of interest in future explorations. Secondary objectives have benefi ts that accrue from hu- • NASA should reopen basic research in the new man presence in space but do not by themselves justify the technologies that will enable these explorations. cost and the risk. These include science, economic devel- • The United States should reaffi rm its long opment, new technologies, and education. standing policy of international leadership We argue that a new U.S. human spacefl ight policy in human spacefl ight and remain committed should use these objectives to balance funding, expecta- to its existing international partners. tions, and acceptable risks to human life. Congress and the • The United States should continue existing White House should reduce the “too much with too little” partnerships within the ISS, including the pressure that has led to disaster in the past and that charac- sustainable partnership with Russia, and begin terizes NASA’s predicament today. to engage on human spacefl ight with China, All of these issues are taken up in greater depth and India, and other aspiring space powers. detail in a forthcoming paper to be published by American Academy of Arts and Sciences in early 2009. 2 we have a government-funded pro- the end of their service lifetimes as gram to send people into space? What early as 2013). The Bush “Vision for Threshold of a New Era are the benefi ts? What are the ratio- Space Exploration,” (the “Bush vi- nales for an expensive program in a sion”) which in 2004 laid out plans for time of economic crisis, tight budgets the retirement of the Shuttle and the 2008 marked NASA’s fi ftieth and competing priorities? Similar construction of Constellation, remains anniversary and a series of half- questions have underfunded. The century commemorations of early surrounded human Early in its fi rst term, period between milestones in human spacefl ight. We spacefl ight since the Shuttle’s last are even months away from the for- its beginning, but the new administration fl ight and Con- tieth anniversary of Apollo 11’s fi rst the answers have will make the most stellation’s fi rst landing on the moon, surely one of changed with important decisions in operations will the watershed events of the twentieth each generation. last at least sever- century. What was once the essence U.S. human spacefl ight Early on, Cold in a generation. al years, leading of the future – human ventures into War competition to a schedule gap space and to other worlds – is now a provided a suf- where the United part of history. But what of its future? fi cient rationale; later, the goal became States must rely on other means, in- Despite the exciting record of ac- to develop routine access to space cluding Russian launchers and space- complishments, questions remain with the promise of commercial ben- craft, to provide access to the ISS. about human spacefl ight. Why should efi ts. More recently, only the loftier Meanwhile remote and robotic aims of exploration seem to justify science missions have yielded as- the risks and costs of sending hu- tonishing new discoveries on and mans into this hostile environment. about our solar system and beyond. Events of the past six years have These vehicles have generated proof thrust NASA and the country into a of water ice on Mars, detected or- major transition. The transition has ganic material venting from a moon begun, but how it evolves remains un- of Saturn, and led to discoveries of defi ned. Early in its fi rst term, amidst “exoplanets” outside our solar sys- severe fi nancial pressures, the new tem. Despite their technology, none administration will make the most of these missions are “automatic” important decisions in U.S. human – each is controlled by, and sends spacefl ight in a generation. These data to, human beings on Earth. concern the Space Shuttle, the Interna- NASA’s budget has remained es- tional Space Station (ISS), and future sentially fl at with infl ation (just over plans and systems for exploration. 2.1% average annual increase from How should these decisions be made 2005-2008, to $17.3 billion), and in the best interest of the country? the agency is attempting to support The Space Shuttle, mainstay of its new programs by rebalancing U.S. human spacefl ight for the past its priorities, leading to fi erce de- thirty years, is scheduled for retire- bates about appropriate allocations ment in 2010, although proposals exist between human spacefl ight and to extend its life by a few missions science, aeronautics, remote mis- to several years. NASA is building sions, and earth observation. a series of new rockets (Ares I and Both Russia’s and China’s goals V) and spacecraft (Orion, Altair), include landing humans on the moon together known as Constellation, to in the next 20 years. The European carry humans into orbit and to the Space Agency (ESA) is beginning moon. The International Space Station cargo fl ights to the ISS and exploring is scheduled to be completed in 2010, options for a human spacecraft. India and questions remain about how best has a rocket capable of carrying a hu- to support and utilize this $100 bil- man spacecraft that they are design- lion asset (some modules will reach Mars BioSuit™ ing; Japan aspires to the same. In late 3 2007, a Malaysian fl ew into space for context and are inextricably linked sions and was an effective, visible the fi rst time, followed six months to the issues below but are not our way to demonstrate human capability later by the fi rst Korean astronaut. focus here. Rather, we examine those in space. For the early Shuttle fl ights, Both fl ew on Russian Soyuz capsules. issues unique to human spacefl ight. science was a secondary theme, oc- Space continues to attract broad First, some brief history of how the public interest, although it must com- United States arrived at this moment. pete for attention in an increasingly We might divide human spacefl ight diverse, overheated, and unstable into three historical phases. A fi rst, media environment. Young Americans “experimental” phase in the 1960s be- increasingly see remote and virtual gan with the fi rst humans to ride rock- presence as equivalent to physical ets aloft and within the same decade presence and may not accept older landed men on the moon.