3.0 Transportation Analysis This chapter describes existing transit, traffic, and parking conditions within the East Bay BRT Project corridor and discloses the transportation impacts of the No-Build Alternative and Build Alternatives. It includes the following four sections: 3.1, Transit Conditions; 3.2, Vehicular Traffic; 3.3, Non-Motorized Transportation; and 3.4 Parking. Section 3.1, Transit Conditions, describes existing and future transit facilities and services in the project corridor between Downtown Berkeley and the San Leandro BART station in San Leandro. Future conditions cover both the No-Build Alternative and the Build Alternatives, thereby allowing comparisons of the changes between No-Build and Build conditions. Impacts of the Build Alternatives relative to the No-Build Alternative are highlighted and focus on bus operations, including travel times, speeds, and patronage. As described in Chapter 2, Alternatives, there are two Build Alternatives under consideration. The first Build Alternative is the Locally Preferred Alternative (LPA) with service throughout the corridor from Downtown Berkeley to the San Leandro BART station. The second Build Alternative considers a shorter option to the LPA, designated the Downtown Oakland to San Leandro (DOSL) Alternative. It begins at the Uptown Transit Center in Downtown Oakland and continues along the same alignment as the LPA to San Leandro BART. The analysis of transit conditions and impacts of the Build Alternatives first describes the effects of the LPA, followed by effects of the DOSL Alternative. As many effects of the DOSL Alternative are the same as the LPA in the corridor segment from Downtown Oakland to San Leandro BART, the discussion of the DOSL Alternative is limited to its differences from the LPA. This approach is used throughout this document when discussing potential environmental effects. The intent is to avoid being repetitive and to make clear the differences between the Build Alternatives, in particular their impacts relative to the No-Build Alternative. Section 3.2, Vehicular Traffic, describes the existing and future roadway networks and how the future network will be changed and is expected to operate under the Build Alternatives. Operations are analyzed in terms of intersection operations as they are the key points in the roadway network with respect to traffic operations, including potential travel time delays. The non-motorized transportation discussion in Section 3.3 focuses on existing and planned pedestrian and bicycle conditions and identifies anticipated changes to future pedestrian and bicycle facilities, including access that will result from the proposed East Bay BRT project. The final Section 3.4, Parking, describes existing and future parking conditions along the project corridor and changes in parking facilities and access that are expected under each of the Build Alternatives. Time Horizons for Assessing Impacts Future conditions for all alternatives are expressed—as best they can be estimated—for 2035, the horizon year for impacts assessment in this Final EIS/EIR. Because 2015 is the projected completion date of project construction and the opening of revenue service to the public, traffic and transit conditions in 2015 are also described. This provides the reader with a perspective on project effects when it opens (near term) and after 20 years of operation (long term). Travel AC Transit East Bay BRT Project January 2012 3.0-1 Final Environmental Impact Statement/ Environmental Impact Report forecasts of auto and transit trips have been developed based on the transportation network and land uses, the latter expressed in terms of population and employment, in both 2015 and 2035. Traffic and transit operations are similarly discussed for both years. To be consistent with the chronology, 2015 impacts are presented first and followed by 2035 impacts. Accompanying the discussion of the environmental effects of each Build Alternative is a summary of mitigation measures for eliminating or moderating adverse impacts, where warranted, in both 2015 and 2035. It is to be stressed that 2035 is the accepted time horizon under NEPA for assessing project effects and establishing mitigations that will become part of any approved project. However, in certain instances mitigations are proposed that address 2015 effects and do not address fully 2035 effects. Where this occurs it is noted along with a determination that the mitigation is not sufficient under NEPA (CEQA) to reduce the impact to below the threshold set to define adverse impact (level of significance). Information Sources The transportation analysis of existing conditions in the project corridor is based on data provided by the cities of Berkeley, Oakland, and San Leandro and by regional transportation planning and operating agencies, including AC Transit. The data are supplemented by surveys conducted by the Final EIS/EIR project team during preparation of this document. Future 2035 conditions are based on forecasts using a modified version of the Alameda County Transportation Commission (ACTC)1 Alameda Countywide Travel Demand Model that was also used for the project’s 2007 Draft Environmental Impact Statement/Environmental Impact Report (Draft EIS/EIR) and the 2008 and 2010 Small Starts submittals to the Federal Transit Administration. Land use data is obtained from the metropolitan planning agencies (Metropolitan Transportation Commission [MTC], Association of Bay Area Governments [ABAG]), supplemented by data provided by corridor cities. The modified Alameda Countywide Model includes updated future year land use based on ABAG Projections 2009 (P2009) – the latest land use data set available for the region—and land use allocations by traffic analysis zone from ABAG Projections 2007 (P2007) –also the latest allocations that were available at the time travel forecasts were begun, in late 2009. Transportation modeling approaches, assumptions, and projections are described in detail in the AC Transit East Bay BRT Transit Patronage and Forecasting Methodology Report (2010) and the AC Transit East Bay BRT Traffic Analysis Report (2011), which are available for review at the AC Transit District office. 1 Formerly called the Alameda County Congestion Management Agency (ACCMA) AC Transit East Bay BRT Project January 2012 3.0-2 Final Environmental Impact Statement/ Environmental Impact Report 3.1 Transit Conditions 3.1.1 Existing Transit Services The primary transit services in the East Bay BRT corridor are bus services provided by AC Transit and heavy rail services provided by BART. Other supportive and specialized transit services in the broader study area for this Final EIS/EIR include intercity commuter rail by the Capitol Corridor Joint Powers Authority (and managed by BART), intercity/interstate passenger rail service by Amtrak, and various dial-a-ride, student and commuter shuttle services provided by a host of other operators including University of California Berkeley Bear Transit, Emery Go Round, San Leandro Links and FLEX Shuttle paratransit, AirBART, and the East Bay Paratransit Consortium. Details on these other transit operators in the corridor are provided in Section 3.1.1.2 Other Transit Services. 3.1.1.1 Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit) The Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District is the third-largest public bus system in California, serving 13 cities and adjacent unincorporated areas in Alameda and Contra Costa counties. AC Transit provides local, express, and commuter bus service in western Alameda County and western Contra Costa County on 107 bus lines, operating over 25 million bus vehicle miles annually. Average weekday boardings on fixed-bus services systemwide in fiscal year 2008/09 were approximately 236,000. This includes the District’s boardings on its Transbay services.2 Transbay services connect the AC Transit service area in Alameda and Contra Costa counties with San Francisco and other points on the San Francisco Peninsula. (Note: Transit system statistics are first reported for 2008/09 as early 2009 is the baseline relative to which future travel demand in 2015 and 2035 is estimated. Transit ridership at that time was not markedly distorted by the recent recession and the transit service cuts imposed by AC Transit and other operators. As the local economy improves it is assumed AC Transit and other operators will be able to restore service to at least 2009 levels. More current ridership numbers are nonetheless provided when helpful to establish trends.) AC Transit buses connect with nine other public and private bus systems, 21 BART stations, six Amtrak stations, and three ferry terminals. Of the 107 bus lines there are 74 local lines within the East Bay (these include arterial Rapid services, which are express in nature) and 33 Transbay lines to San Francisco and the San Francisco Peninsula. 2 Boardings refer to unlinked passenger transit trips. Bus transit data provided by AC Transit. AC Transit East Bay BRT Project January 2012 3.1-1 Final Environmental Impact Statement/ Environmental Impact Report Table 3.1-1. AC Transit Service Characteristics 107 Bus lines (113 including “all nighter” routes Bus stops 6,500 (approx.) Annual bus miles 25.1 million Annual bus hours 2.1 million Source: AC Transit, 2010, and National Transit Database, 2009 Table 3.1-2. AC Transit Ridership—FY 2008-2009 Daily (weekday) 236,000 Annual 69 million Paratransit (annual) 689,000 Source: National Transit Database, 2009. Existing AC Transit Service Operations in East Bay BRT Corridor Nine routes offer service along identical or adjacent alignments for the East Bay BRT Project between Berkeley and San Leandro. These routes are the 1, 1R, 12, 18, 40, 51A, 51B, 800 and 801. Route descriptions are provided below and route alignments are shown in Figure 3.1-1, which also displays other routes in the study area as of summer 2011. x Route 1: Berkeley BART to BayFair BART via Telegraph Avenue, International Boulevard, and East 14th Street. This route has 15 minute headways during peak hours, 20 minutes off-peak on weekdays and weekends, from 5:00 a.m. to midnight.