View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2013-06 Japan's national interests in Taiwan Marocco, Andrew E. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/34702 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS JAPAN’S NATIONAL INTERESTS IN TAIWAN by Andrew E. Marocco June 2013 Thesis Advisor: Robert Weiner Thesis Co-Advisor: Alice Miller Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202–4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704–0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2013 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS JAPAN’S NATIONAL INTERESTS IN TAIWAN 6. AUTHOR(S) Andrew E. Marocco 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943–5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The U.S.–Japan alliance continues to be the cornerstone of the U.S.-led security structure in East Asia. Within the parameters of this alliance, the unresolved status of Taiwan still presents one of the most precarious security situations in the region, one that could lead to a major war with China. Within the larger scope of U.S.–China–Japan–Taiwan relations, Japan and Taiwan’s relationship would generally be considered the least prominent of all possible combinations. Despite this reality, when pulling back the veneer from this seemingly tertiary regional relationship, there is a depth of interaction that is difficult to categorize and that has the potential to greatly influence security and stability in the region. This thesis examines Japan and Taiwan’s special relationship through the lens of Japan’s national interests and assesses the implications for the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Japan, Taiwan, National Interests, U.S.-Japan Security Alliance 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 181 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01–280–5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited JAPAN’S NATIONAL INTERESTS IN TAIWAN Andrew E. Marocco Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.A., Vanderbilt University Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (FAR EAST, SOUTHEAST ASIA, THE PACIFIC) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2013 Author: Andrew E. Marocco Approved by: Robert Weiner, PhD Thesis Advisor Alice Miller, PhD Thesis Co-Advisor Harold A. Trinkunas, PhD Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The U.S.–Japan alliance continues to be the cornerstone of the U.S.-led security structure in East Asia. Within the parameters of this alliance, the unresolved status of Taiwan still presents one of the most precarious security situations in the region, one that could lead to a major war with China. Within the larger scope of U.S.–China–Japan–Taiwan relations, Japan and Taiwan’s relationship would generally be considered the least prominent of all possible combinations. Despite this reality, when pulling back the veneer from this seemingly tertiary regional relationship, there is a depth of interaction that is difficult to categorize and that has the potential to greatly influence security and stability in the region. This thesis examines Japan and Taiwan’s special relationship through the lens of Japan’s national interests and assesses the implications for the future of the U.S.- Japan alliance. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. JAPAN–TAIWAN RELATIONS: A SURVEY ........................................................1 A. PREAMBLE: TAIWAN AS A COLONY OF JAPAN (1895–1945) ...........1 B. OFFICIAL RELATIONS WITH THE ROC (1945–1972) ..........................9 1. Introduction ..........................................................................................9 2. The Yoshida Doctrine and the “1955 System” ................................10 3. Reconciling with Two Chinas ...........................................................15 4. Growing Disillusion with the KMT ..................................................18 5. The Sino–Soviet Split .........................................................................20 6. Conclusion (1945–1972) .....................................................................21 C. POST- FORMAL TIES (1972–1996) ...........................................................23 1. What is Crisis Management? ............................................................23 2. De Facto Arrangements .....................................................................27 3. The Golden Age of U.S.–China–Japan Relations ...........................28 4. The End of the “1955 System” ..........................................................31 5. A Personal and Ideological Bridge with Taiwan .............................32 6. Conclusion (1972–1996) .....................................................................35 D. JAPAN’S “RELUCTANT REALISM” AND THE RISE OF BALANCE-OF-POWER POLITICS (1996–2008) .....................................37 1. Ideology, Pop Culture, and Business ................................................38 2. Political Networks ..............................................................................42 3. Balance of Power ................................................................................44 4. Conclusion (1996–2008) .....................................................................51 II. CURRENT DYNAMICS OF JAPAN–TAIWAN RELATIONS ...........................55 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................55 B. STRATEGIC SITUATION OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT .........................56 1. Status Quo, Equilibrium, and Dynamic Equilibrium.....................56 C. PRC POWER ASYMMETRY: “COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL POWER” ........................................................................................................59 D. REDEFINING THE U.S. POSITION ..........................................................63 1. The Question of Arms Sales to Taiwan ............................................64 2. Important American Assessments of the Situation in the Taiwan Strait ......................................................................................65 E. TAIWAN’S POSITION: CROSS-STRAIT RAPPROCHEMENT AND DIPLOMATIC SPACE .......................................................................69 1. What is ECFA? ..................................................................................70 2. Taiwan’s Security and Diplomatic Space ........................................73 3. “A Special Partnership” with Japan ................................................75 F. JAPAN’S GRAND STRATEGY AND FOREIGN POLICY DEVELOPMENT ..........................................................................................77 1. Japan’s Assessments of the Regional and International Security Environment ........................................................................78 2. Japanese Public Opinion of China and Taiwan ..............................80 vii 3. Neo-Conservatism with Japanese Characteristics: the “Bounty of the Open Seas” ...............................................................................81 4. China–Japan Relations and Taiwan: The Debate ..........................87 5. Japan’s Domestic Political Situation ................................................96 G. JAPAN’S NATIONAL INTERESTS IN TAIWAN: OBJECTIVES, METHODS, OUTCOMES ............................................................................97 1. Economic Interests .............................................................................98 2. Crisis Management ..........................................................................102 3. Balance of Power: Objectives .........................................................103 4. Balance of Power: Methods .............................................................104