Public Disclosure Authorized ACHIEVING UNIVERSAL ACCESS IN THE Public Disclosure Authorized KADUNA ELECTRICITY SERVICE AREA Public Disclosure Authorized Africa Renewable Energy Public Disclosure Authorized and Access Program (AFREA) This is a publication by the African Renewable Energy Access Program (AFREA), a World Bank Trust Fund Grant Program funded by the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The report was prepared by staff and contractors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpreta- tions, and conclusions expressed in this report are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attribut- ed in any manner to the World Bank, or its affiliated organizations, or to members of its board of executive directors for the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. 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Preface This Volume was produced under the Nigeria Electrification Access Program Development (NEAPD) Tech- nical Assistance project for Kaduna Electric, which provides electricity services to the States of Kaduna, Keb- bi, Sokoto and Zamfara in North West Nigeria. The Volume is combined by two reports: a GIS-based Least- Cost Plan and a related Investment Prospectus. Together, they present a technically sound electrification and investment plan for the achievement of universal access to electricity services in the Kaduna Electric service area by 2030. Both the Geospatial Plan and the Investment Prospectus were produced in close collaboration with Kaduna Electric, and the NEAPD project also strengthened the utility’s capacity through training for the geospatial mapping of the electricity infrastructure and for distribution planning with GIS tools. The Least-Cost Plan provides a geospatial and quantitative frame for the design and detailing of a well-co- ordinated and harmonized implementation program for grid and off-grid electrification over a fiteen-year timeframe (2015–2030). Building on the findings of the geospatial plan and a rapid readiness assessment, the Investment Prospectus proposes a year-by-year electrification program up to 2030 (including connections for schools and clinics) and details the investment needs, financing gaps and possible sources of funding with a focus on the first five years of implementation. The Prospectus also identifies key sector obstacles (related to the policy, institutional and financing frameworks) for the implementation of an access rollout plan and suggests possible areas requiring capacity strengthening through Technical Assistance. As demonstrated by best practices in international experience, investments alone will not be sufficient to achieve universal access by 2030. They must be complemented by timely and effective enabling actions on several other fronts, especially the establishment of an enabling policy, targeted fixes to the institutional framework, and capacity strengthening of the key agents and institutions whose effective engagement is es- sential. Besides Kaduna Electric, the Federal Government of Nigeria (Ministry of Power and of Finance, and the Office of the Vice President), the Regulator, and several other key stakeholders have a key role to play if electricity services are to be provided to over 80 million Nigerians currently living in the dark and ensure shared well-being across the country. While the analysis and recommendations presented in this Volume reflect and respond to the operating context and specific characteristics of Kaduna Electric utility, they also provide an input for the completion of the bold sector reform launched by the Federal Government of Nigeria in 2010. While highlighting the make or break challenges for scaling up access in the Kaduna Electric service area, the Volume also provides a roadmap for expanding access across the country in an efficient, effective, and timely manner. i ii Acknowledgements This work could not have been possible without financial support from the Africa Renewable Energy and Access Program (AFREA), funded through the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Pro- gram (ESMAP)—a global knowledge and technical assistance program that assists low- and middle-income countries to increase their know-how and institutional capacity to achieve environmentally sustainable en- ergy solutions for poverty reduction and economic growth. ESMAP is funded by Australia, Austria, Den- mark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Japan, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the World Bank Group. AFREA’s mandate is to help meet the energy needs and widen access to energy services in Sub-Saharan African countries in an environmentally responsible way. AFREA is funded by the Netherlands. The report also benefited from funding from the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) global initiative. Under the overall guidance of Rahul Kitchlu (Senior Energy Specialist), the Least Cost Geospatial Imple- mentation Plan for Grid and Off-Grid Rollout (2015–2030) for the Kaduna Electric Service Area was prepared by the Earth Institute at Columbia University School of Engineering and Applied Sciences whereas the In- vestment Prospectus for the electrification of the Kaduna Electric service area by Economic Consulting Associ- ates. Arun Sanghvi (Consultant) and Chiara Rogate (Consultant) supervised and coordinated the prepara- tion of this Volume. The team is grateful for the guidance provided by Rachid Benmessaoud (Country Director), Meike van Ginneken (Practice Manager, Africa Energy), Wendy Hughes (Practice Manager, Africa Energy), Rohit Khanna (Practice Manager, Energy Strategy and Operations), Erik Fernstrom (Practice Manager, Energy MENA) and Kyran O’Sullivan (Lead Energy Specialist). The team is also grateful to Sudeshna Banerjee (Lead Energy Specialist), Dana Rysankova (Senior Energy Specialist), and Yann Tanvez (Energy Specialist) for peer reviewing the reports and providing insightful comments, and to Jon Exel (Senior Energy Specialist) and Muhammad Wakil (Energy Specialist) for their valuable inputs. We would also like to thank Siet Meijer (Operations Officer) and the ESMAP team, particularly Heather Austin (Publishing Officer), Chita Obinwa (Program Assistant), Joy Medani (Team Assistant), and the colleagues in the World Bank Abuja Office for their support in preparing this Volume. The team and the contractors would also like to thank the Management and staff of Kaduna Electric who provided strong and appreciated commitment, support and cooperation in the preparation of these reports. PART 1 LEAST COST GEOSPATIAL IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR GRID AND OFF-GRID ROLLOUT (2015–2030) FOR THE KADUNA ELECTRIC SERVICE AREA Advisory Service Document Consultant Summary Report Contents viii Abbreviations ix Executive Summary xi Least-Cost Electrification Rollout for the Kaduna Service Area, 2015–2030 xv Off-Grid Electricity Access 1 Chapter 1: Analytical Approach 1 How the Model Functions: Calculations and Recommendations 2 Key Assumptions and Estimates 3 Preparing the Input Dataset 9 Chapter 2: Model Results and Related Policy Conclusions 9 Model Results: Electricity Access Program 19 Off-Grid Electricity Access Program 26 Electricity Access for Social Infrastructure 26 Sensitivity Test – Variation in Household Demand 29 Appendices 29 Appendix A: Least Cost Electrification Modeling 33 Appendix B: Geo-located Data for Demands 39 Appendix C: Grid Line Mapping and Related Training 46 Appendix D: Model Parameter Inputs 52 Appendix E: Training in Electrification Cost Modeling for Kaduna Electric 54 Appendix F: Review of VTF/Gates Foundation Data v vi CONTENTS Figures viii Figure 1 States in the Kaduna Electric service area (Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi, Sokoto) ix Figure 2 Map of proposed electricity systems (with number of locations in brackets) xi Figure 3 Existing grid lines and the prioritized grid expansion plan based on average cost per household for the KEDCO service area, 2015–2030. xiii Figure 4 Potential pre-electrification off-grid locations for programs of varying size. 1 Figure 5 Demand points (blue) and existing grid (black) are combined to create a least-cost plan for electric grid extensions (red) and off-grid systems (green) 3 Figure 6 VTS Settlement data (L); NMIS health and education facility data (R) 4 Figure 7 Grid MV lines and transformers mapped by Kaduna Electric (Mar. 16, 2016) 13 Figure 8 Map of proposed electricity systems (with number of locations in brackets) 14 Figure 9 Percent households with grid connection by LGA before grid access program begins ( ~49% of the 2015 population, or 36% of the 2030 population). 14 Figure 10 Percent households connected by LGA after 30% of grid