- Sponsors On behalf of all the delegates, the CansWian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and the American Meteorological Society wish to acknowledge and thank the maJor supporters of our Joint CMOS-AMS Congress 2012. Gold Sponsors ($10K) rtGlCAMPSEI..t. Meteo ~ The Weather '!!E'?.~!7u~!~~~~ Media Network Fisheries and Oceans Peches at Oceans .+. Canada Canada Silver Sponsors ($5K) canadian foundation for CUmate ~ and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) Environment Environnement Canada Canada .. ~ FondaUon canadienne pour les sciences du cllmat et de I'atmosphere (FCSCA) .+. ~ Other Sponsors ASL fnvironmental Sciences PACIFIC CLIMATE THE SUPERCOMPUTER COMPANY IMPACTS CONSORTIUM ~HOSKIN Dewioppemenf durable, Environnement etPares DO Quebec DO IIII MIX jJ, ,. .. ,.htIo !:~ --F8~ Ct03458 Joint CMOS-AMS Congress 2012 Page 2 Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) American Meteorological Society (AMS) 46th CMOS Congress 25th AMS WAF and 21st AMS NWP Annual Meetings Montreal 2012 May 29th- June 1 st 2P12 ~ w I\Mf RIC N I,\fHOROLOLICr..L .." 0 l I L T J l Editor: Sophie CousinFlau j li hi 1.1 PROGRAM httD :jjwww...Cmo.S ,-cM-con~ess.20l£L Abstracts are available online at: https:llwwwl.cmos.caiabstractsicongress schedule. asp ISBN 978·0.-9880.687-0.-6 Joint CMOS-AMS Congress 2012 Page 3 NOTES Internet access: Wireless access to the Internet will be available during the Congress. Locate the Hyatt Regency Montreal network and enter the following password: 401016. Joint CMOS-AMS Congress 2012 Page 4 Table of Contents Welcome from the Premier of Quebec 7 Welcome from the Ministre du Developpement Durable, de l'Environnement et des Parcs 8 Welcome from the Maoror of Montreal 9 A Word About the Societies 10 A Word of Welcome from the Societies and the COmmittees 11 Local Arrangements COmmittee 14 SCientific Program Committee 14 Volunteers 15 Information 16 Exhibitors List 18 Exhibitors and Posters SeSSion Floor Plan 19 Social Agenda 20 Student Travel Bursary Recipients 22 Public Lecture 23 Teachers'Daor 24 Plenary Speakers 25 Scientific Sessions Description 29 2013 CMOS Congress 40 Week at a glance 43 Hyatt Regency Montrea 50 Abstracts abstracts 1 abstracts 1 A Page 5 Joint CMOS-AMS Congress 2012 Joint CMOB-AMB Congress 2012 Pag-e6 Welcome from the Premier of Quebec I am pleased to weloome everyone to Montreal for the Con­ gress of the Canadian Meteorologtoal and Ooeanographio Sooiety. This oongress - an opportunity to meet with oolleagues from across Canada, the United States and Europe - is also an opportunity to add to the pool of knowledge that underpins the development of researoh, soienoe and teohnology In your field. And that is why I salute your presenoe whioh attests to your w!ll to be part of the move to hone and oontlnuouslY improve the servioes you offer and that benefit people far and wide. In the fight B€alnst olimate ohange and In environmental research, Quebeo is a reoognized leader that redefines !n!tia­ tive. The Cha.ngtng Environment and its Impact on Climate, Ooean and Weather Servioes is an lnsplrJ.ng theme for stimulat­ J.ng exohange and disoussion gtven the ohanges the earth is undergoJ.ng. Bravo to the Cana.d!an Meteorologtoal and Ooeanographio Sooiety and the Amerioan Meteorologtoal Sooiety for organiz­ Ing this event. Best wishes to all for a constructive congress. Jean Ch;rest Quebec:: Joint CMOS-AMS Congress 2012 Page 7 Welcome from the Ministre du Developpement Durable, de l'Environnement et des Parcs En offrant a. des experts de tous les horizons l'oooasion de mettre en oommun leurs idees et leurs savoirs, la Sooiete oanadienne de meteorologie et d'ooeanographie oontribue a. ameliorer notre oomprehension et notre gestion du phenomene des ohangements olimatiques. Nous pouvons ainsi oontinuer a. faire preuve de leadership et adapter ensemble nos habitudes de vie. Nos objeotifs dans Ie domaine de l'environnement sont ambitleux, et o'est avec oonfianoe que nous envlsageons l'avenir, fort du soutien de partenaires de qual1te oomme vous. LE MINISTRE DU DEVELOPPEMENT DURABLE, DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT ET DES PARCS, PIERRE ARCAND O"'e'CJlPlmMr ......1 Errvtf'OlwNH1Wftt etP.... DO QUebeC DH Joint CMOS·AMS Congress 2012 Page 8 Welcome from the Mayor of Montreal Je suis heureux de souhaiter la bienvenue aux participants du congres de la Societe canadienne de meteorologie et d'oceanographie 2012 ainsi qu'aux membres de l'American Meteorological Society qui nous font Ie plaisir de se joindre a eux. Montreal est une destination toute choisie pour votre reunion puisque notre metro pole compte plusieurs institutions majeures qui contribuent a I'enrichissement de la recherche dans les domaines qui vous interessent. Vos reflexions peuvent apporter des eclairages essentiels a notre comprehension des phenomenes qui ont et auront un impact majeur sur notre environnement. Soyez donc assures que vos travaux beneficieront ici d'une ecoute particulierement attentive. J'espere tout de meme qu'ils vous laisseront suffisamment de temps pour decouvrir ou redecouvrir une ville qui n'a cesse d'evoluer et de s'embellir au cours des dernierement annees, surtout que vous tenez vos assises justement au cceur du Quartier des spectacles qui a recemment subi une cure de rajeunissement particulierement visible. Mes meilleurs vceux de succes accompagnent les organisateurs de cet evenement exceptionnel. A nos visiteurs, je souhaite un excellent sejour et a tous, d'excellentes rencontres et une temperature agreable! I am delighted to welcome participants in the 2012 Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Congress, along with American Meteorological Society members who do us the honour of joining them. Montreal is an ideal venue for your conference because our metropolis is home to a number of major institutions that conduct research in your fields of interest. Your deliberations can bring fresh insights to our understanding of phenomena that will have a major impact on our environment. We will closely follow your work. I do hope that you have enough free time, however, to discover or to rediscover a city that has continued to evolve and become even more beautiful over the past few years, particularly as you are meeting right in the heart of our recently and very visibly rejuvenated Quartier des spectacles. I wish great success to organizers of this exceptional event. I hope our visitors enjoy a pleasant stay, excellent meetings and great weather! Gerald Tremblay Maire de Montreal Mayor of Montreal Montreal @ Joint CMOS-AMS Congress 2012 Page 9 A Word About the Societies CMOS The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) is the national society of individuals and organizations dedicated to advancing atmospheric and oceanic sciences and related environmental disciplines in Canada. The Society's aim is to promote meteorology and oceanography in Canada. It is a non-governmental organization serving the interests of meteorologists, ClimatolOgiSts, oceanographers, limnologists, hydrologists and cryospheric scientists across Canada and internationally. CMOS has a rich history dating back to 1939 when it was known as the Canadian Branch of the Royal Meteorological Society. CMOS was officially created in 1967 as the Canadian Meteorological Society and adopted its present name in 1977, following an invitation by the Canadian Meteorological Society to the oceanographic community in Canada to join the Society. AlVIS The American Meteorological Society is pleased to be convening this meeting in partnership with the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Our societies have long history collaboration and we are happy to have the opportunity to do so again through this very important scient11l.c meeting. We look forward to a productive and enJoyable conference with our colleagues and friends. Dr. Louis W. Uccell1n1, AMS President Dr. Keith L. Seitter, AMS Executive Director Joint CMOS-AMS Congress 2012 Page 10 A Word of Welcome from the Societies and the Committees Welcome from the President of the CMOS On behalf of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society I welcome you to the 2012 CMOS-AMS Congress under the theme "The Cba,nglng Environment and its Impact on Climate, Ocean and Weather Services". This 46th CMOS Congress, held jointly with the 21st AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the 25th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, promises to be a memorable congress. We extend a warm welcome to participants af1ll1ated with the American Meteorological SOCiety, our partner in this conference. With an exciting sCientiflc program, many exhibitor booths, special events and social activities that celebrate and reward achievement and bring our SCientific and professional communities together, there will be many opportunities to engage with friends and colleagues. The Local Arrangements Committee led by Louis Lefaivre and the Scient11lc Program Committee co-led by Pierre Gauthier and Bruce Telfeyan, have devoted many hours of their time over the last year to organizing the Congress, Their respective teams, along with numerous volunteers, will also be present during the Congress to answer questions and provide assistance if needed. I encourage all partiCipants in the congress to make room in your schedule for the CMOS annual general meeting, Patterson-Parsons luncheon, banquet, and the public lecture. I hope that CMOS-AMS 2012 will be an exciting and productive experience for all. Norm McFarlane, CMOS President Joint CMOS-AMS Congress 2012 Page 11 Message from the CMOSI AMS Organising Committees Welcome to Montreal for the joint meeting of the 46t.h Canadian MeteorolOgical and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) Congress and the American MeteorolOgical Society (AMS)'s 25t.h Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/21 at Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Conference. This is the first maJor conference jointly sponsored by the CMOS and the AMS and we are particularly happy to welcome you in the heart of Montreal. The joint CMOS/AMS Scientlftc Program COmmittee developed the sCientlftc program. More than 550 abstracts were accepted for either oral or poster presentations, in 80 separate sessions, including four joint plenary sessions, and two poster sessions.