ORSAM POLICY BRIEF 186 AUGUST 2021 DARAA FRAGILE SECURITY DISRUPTED BY FOREIGN ACTORS AMID THE EMERGENCE OF NEW POWERS Suhail al-Ghazi Navvar Shaban INTRODUCTION graphical location has prompted many re- gional and international players to impose he geographical location of southern their control directly or through a local part- Syria is the most important cause of ner. T conflict in and around the region, which borders Israel and Jordan, connects Even before the 2018 reconciliation to Lebanon through Mount Hermon, and agreement, Russia was forced to involve is considered a gateway to the Gulf states more than one party directly in these ar- through the Nassib crossing. Daraa’s geo- rangements, such as Jordan, Israel, and the Daraa Fragile Security Disrupted by Foreign Actors amid the Emergence of New Powers US, which share one goal in the region: to Russia had to organize the armed fac- keep Iran away from the borders with Jor- tions in Daraa to observe the regional par- dan and Israel to a distance of 80 kilometers. ties, requiring some of them to keep their However, Russia could not fulfill this agree- light weapons and equipment. Russia also ment, despite continuously saying Iran is not asked them to prevent the regime forces present in the South. Furthermore, perhaps and Iranian militias from entering the fac- the most important thing that made the task tion-held areas, specifically Daraa al-Balad, difficult for Russia was Iran’s ability to quickly Busra al-Sham, and Tafas, where the 8th Bri- change the form of its influence in the region gade of the 5th Corps, led by Shabab al-Sun- and rely mainly on local forces from the peo- na’s former leader Ahmed al-Awda, was lo- ple of the region. cated to balance the Iranian militias. 2 policy brief 186 Suhail al-Ghazi I Navvar Shaban Relationship with foreign actors Local Degree of Type of Place of Current role Name Category opponent armament deployment deployment in Daraa city Iran Russia 4th Division, Reconciled Former Limited Daraa city/ Military Light rebels not Defending opposition Bad Good control and Daraa al- Security, weapons affiliated with force forces influence Balad Division 311 the regime 4th Division, Military Light and Special Very Security, Iran- medium reconciliation Busra al- 8th Brigade Bad Full control No public role good backed militias, weapons, in the 5th Sham local Druze artillery Corps militia Regime forces Light Former Popular All the Attacks Bad Bad and Iran- weapons, opposition No control Resistance governorate around Daraa backed militias IEDs fighters Reconciled Medium Daraa city, rebels, 8th weapons, Security Daraa western Attacking 4th Division Excellent Weak Brigade, armory, Regime army and military countryside, force Popular artillery, control al-Yarmouk Resistance rockets Basin Reconciled Medium rebels, 8th weapons, Military South east Artillery, Division 15 weak good Brigade, armory, Regime army control As-Suwayda reinforcement Popular artillery, Resistance rockets Tiger Medium Reconciled Forces/ weapons, Military Good Excellent rebels, 8th Regime army Daraa city Limited attack Division 25 armory, presence Brigade SF artillery Daraa- Reconciled Damascus rebels, 8th Medium Military and Lebanese Foreign highway, Attacking Excellent weak Brigade, weapons, security Hezbollah militia eastern and force Popular artillery control western Resistance countryside Reconciled rebels, 8th Light and Al-Radwan Military Attacking Excellent Weak Brigade, medium Local militia Daraa city Battalıons presence force Popular weapons Resistance Reconciled Military rebels, 8th Light and Security All the Security Security Excellent Good Brigade, medium Security force presence governorate presence branch Popular weapons Resistance Reconciled Air Force rebels, 8th Light and Security All the Security Security Excellent Good Brigade, medium Security force presence governorate presence branch Popular weapons Resistance Reconciled National rebels, 8th Light and Northern Auxiliary Military Attacking Defense Excellent Good Brigade, medium and western forces presence force Force (NDF) Popular weapons countryside Resistance Reconciled Light and Local rebels, 8th Northern Attacking and medium Military Defense Excellent Weak Brigade, Regime army and western reinforcement weapons, presence Forces (LDF) Popular countryside force artillery Resistance www.orsam.org.tr 3 Daraa Fragile Security Disrupted by Foreign Actors amid the Emergence of New Powers MAP OF INFLUENCE sues such as settling problems AND CONTROL OF related to arbitrary arrests or LOCAL FORCES IN brokering between the regime DARAA forces and former opposition groups. Despite Russia’s at- The security and military tempts to fulfill its local and in- formations in Daraa operate ternational commitments, the without an explicit agreement process was problematic due formula that regulates move- to three main reasons: ment and work. The agree- ments made by the parties a. The Russian role does among themselves are con- not seem to be welcomed by sidered fragile and had a di- the regime, which believes rect role in further fragilizing that it has the right to have full the security situation in Daraa. and exclusive control over the The Syrian regime, supported southern region. by Iran and Hezbollah, aims b. Reconciled opposition to regain absolute control of groups accuse Russia of fail- The 8th Brigade of the Daraa governorate, while ing to fulfill its obligations and the 5th Corps is a other local parties seek inde- favoring the regime at the ex- unique case in Syria, pendence in managing their pense of its promises to the as the Russian- control areas. The following opposition. backed group is not table shows the armed forces an ally of the regime currently in Daraa. c. Israel lost confidence and is at odds with in Russia’s ability or desire to th RUSSIA AND IRAN: the 4 Division as confront Iranian influence in FRAGILE RELATIONS well as Iran-backed southern Syria, so it relied on forces. AND UNDECLARED its own efforts to combat Iran’s CONFLICTS presence by targeting military Russian attempts to control sites run by Iran and its militias, the security scene especially in As-Suwayda and Quneitra. Since 2018, Russia has re- structured the region to help Despite the deteriorating the regime regain control security situation and the on- through reconciliation agree- going escalation, Russia still ments, displacements, and a believes that its way of deal- commitment to keep Iran and ing with southern Syria is the its militias away from the Is- best method possible amid raeli and Jordanian borders. In the severe divergence of po- this context, Russia is involved sition and interest between from time to time in local is- various players. At the same 4 policy brief 186 Suhail al-Ghazi I Navvar Shaban 1st convoy of regime opponents leaves Syria’s Daraa. time, Russia is seeking to develop mecha- The 8th Brigade in Daraa included most of nisms to control these divergences. Perhaps the “Youth of Sunna” fighters and was later the most important among them is the one joined by many others from various factions aimed at increasing the effectiveness of the that disintegrated after the reconciliation. 8th Brigade of 5th Corps to achieve balance The Brigade is mainly concentrated in and with the regime forces and Iranian militias, around Busra al-Sham, east of Daraa. Ac- as well as continuous coordination with Isra- cording to local observers, their command- el regarding its borders with Syria. er, Major General Ahmed al-Awda, is known for his kinship with Khaled al-Mahamid, a th 1. The role of the 5 Corps in Daraa Syrian businessman residing in the UAE and The presence of the 5th Corps in Daraa close to Russia. Since before the reconcili- is particularly important, as one of the bri- ation, Al-Mahamid has been a supporter of gades includes the 8th Brigade led by Ahmed al-Awda and his “Youth of Sunna” faction. al-Awda, who was leading the “Youth of Sun- Al-Awda also visited the Russian Hemimim na” faction in the Free Syrian Army. The 8th base, communicates with Russian officers Brigade was formed in 2018 after the recon- directly, and visits Jordan frequently. Ahmed ciliation agreement between the regime and al-Awda was able to attract young men from local opposition groups under Russian aus- Busra al-Sham and other areas in Daraa. He pices. The agreement allowed the majority even announced his intention to form a unit- of remaining fighters to keep their weapons ed Houran army of twenty thousand fighters and gave the Russian military police security to fight the Syrian people’s enemies, allud- control in specific reconciled areas. ing to Iran and Hezbollah. www.orsam.org.tr 5 Daraa Fragile Security Disrupted by Foreign Actors amid the Emergence of New Powers Unlike other brigades of the 5th Corps Daraa and Quneitra, when local activists be- in other governorates, the 8th Brigade is di- gan issuing statements rejecting the presi- rectly affiliated with Russia and not with the dential elections and threatening to close Syrian regime and its forces in the slightest. polling places. Indeed, Daraa and Quneitra This gave it a unique status that sometimes did not witness a celebratory atmosphere escalated tensions, such as entering into a for elections like others. Locals prevented conflict with the 4th Division of the regime regime supporters from participating in the forces linked to Iran and chanting revolu- elections in these governorates, who feared tionary slogans. On some occasions, the Bri- being targeted if they took part in the elec-