Aging Population CAN THE U.S. SUPPORT ITS GROWING RANKS 2 OF ELDERLY? The oldest of the 78 million Americans born during the post-World War II baby boom generation are turning 65 this year, while the share of the population older than 85 is growing even faster. The flood of elderly Americans is putting severe financial stress on programs that benefit older citizens. The number of people covered under Medicare will increase by more than 30 million over the next 20 years. So far, congressional proposals for constraining Medicare spending have encountered stiff resistance. But economists say the country’s deficits will become unmanageable if entitlement programs aren’t scaled back. The Uniteddistribute States is not aging as rapidly as other developed countries and will continue to have a growing population of working-age people. But as longevity and spending on healthor care increase, many seniors will outlive their retirement savings. BY ALAN GREENBLATT CQ Researcher post, July 15, 2011 Volume 21, Number 25 THIS REPORT THE ISSUES.................................................copy, 9 BACKGROUND .........................................19 CHRONOLOGYnot ........................................ 20 CURRENT SITUATION ..........................25 Getty Images/John Moore AT ISSUE ....................................................28 A hospice patient in Lakewood, Colo., releases a dove as DoOUTLOOK ..................................................30 part of an animal therapy program designed to increase happiness for terminally ill residents. The growing BIBLIOGRAPHY.......................................34 number of aging and elderly Americans is putting THE NEXT STEP ......................................35 programs for the elderly under financial stress. 7 Copyright ©2020 by SAGE Publications, Inc. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. THE ISSUES SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS 9 • Should Americans work longer? 11 More Americans Expect to Delay • Will spending on health care for the Retirement elderly bankrupt the United States? One-fifth of workers expect to retire later • Will the young and old fight over than planned. resources? 13 Workers Gloomy About Retirement Prospects BACKGROUND One-fourth lack confidence in a secure 19 Living Longer retirement. One-fourth of Americans may be over 65 14 Cities Struggle to Meet Growing Needs by 2030. of Elderly 20 ‘Fertility Splurge’ Lack of jobs is biggest obstacle. About 78 million children were born from 17 U.S. Population Growing Grayer 1946–1964. A record 40 million Americans are age 65 24 The Baby Bust or older. distribute Americans had fewer children after the 18 Elderly a Growing Share of Electorate baby boom. The proportionor of the electorate 65 and 25 ‘Sandwich’ Generation older may top 30 percent by 2050. Ten million adults over 50 care for their 20 Chronology parents. Key events since 1946. CURRENT SITUATION 22post, Minority Youths Are Rising Demographic 25 Financial Insecurity Force Most people will rely on Social Security. Some fear disconnect between young blacks, Hispanics and older whites. 26 Automatic Enrollment 28 At Issue The administration favors automatic savings plans. copy, Should the retirement age be raised? 26 Government Cutbacks FOR FURTHER RESEARCH A dozen states have altered workers’ pension plans. not 33 For More Information 27 Math and Politics Organizations to contact. Union leaders blame legislatures for not 34 Bibliography adequatelyDo funding retirement plans. Selected sources used. OUTLOOK 35 The Next Step Additional articles. 30 Political Prospects 37 “The two parties are kind of locked in Citing CQ Researcher cement.” Sample bibliography formats. 8 ISSUES FOR DEBATE IN SOCIAL POLICY Copyright ©2020 by SAGE Publications, Inc. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. CQ RESEARCHER DIRECTOR, REFERENCE SOLUTIONS: JULY 15, 2011 Todd Baldwin VOLUME 21, NUMBER 25 Copyright © 2011 CQ Press, a Division of SAGE. SAGE reserves all copyright and other rights MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Billitteri tjb@ herein, unless previously specified in writing. cqpress.com No part of this publication may be reproduced ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITOR: Kathy Koch electronically or otherwise, without prior [email protected] written permission. Unauthorized reproduction CONTRIBUTING EDITOR: Thomas J. Colin or transmission of SAGE copyrighted material [email protected] is a violation of federal law carrying civil fines of up to $100,000. ASSOCIATE EDITOR: Kenneth Jost CQ Press is a registered trademark of STAFF WRITERS: Marcia Clemmitt, Peter Katel Congressional Quarterly Inc. CONTRIBUTING WRITERS: Sarah Glazer, Alan CQ Researcher (ISSN 1056-2036) is printed Greenblatt, Barbara Mantel, Tom Price, Jennifer on acidfree paper. Published weekly, except: Weeks (May wk. 4) (July wks. 1, 2) (Aug. wks. DESIGN/PRODUCTION EDITOR: Olu B. Davis 2, 3) (Nov. wk.distribute 4) and (Dec. wks. 4, 5), by ASSISTANT EDITOR: Darrell Dela Rosa CQ Press, a division of SAGE. Annual full- service subscriptions start at $803. For FACT CHECKER: Michelle Harris or pricing, call 1-800-834-9020. To purchase a INTERNS: Daniel Bauer, Benjamin Woody CQ Researcher report in print or electronic format (PDF), visit www.cqpress.com or call 866-427-7737. Single reports start at $15. Bulk purchase discounts and electronic- post,rights licensing are also available. Periodicals postage paid at Washington, D.C., and A Division of SAGE additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to CQ Re searcher, PRESIDENT AND PUBLISHER: 2300 N St., N.W., Suite 800, Washington, DC John A. Jenkinscopy, 20037. notTHE ISSUES As the proud patriarch of a successful family, James Kempthorne isn’t happy about having to rely James Kempthorne is running out of money. “He on his children for help. But he’s not alone. Nearly saved, or thought he was saving, for retirement,” 10 million adult children over age 50 in the United saysDo his son, Dirk, a former Republican governor States provide care or financial help to their aging 1 of Idaho. “He thought he would be okay, even if he parents. lived to be 90.” Such numbers are only going to grow. The oldest But on the 4th of July, the senior Kempthorne members of the baby boom generation—78 million turned 96. “His savings are gone, and his only source Americans born between 1946 and 1964—are turn- of income is Social Security—Social Security and a ing 65 this year. The sheer number of them means couple of sons,” Dirk Kempthorne says. that one will turn 65 every 8 seconds until 2030.2 CHAPTER 2 AGING POPULATION 9 Copyright ©2020 by SAGE Publications, Inc. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. including pressures on the workforce and federal budget.4 That’s despite the fact that the United States is aging less rapidly than other developed nations, such as Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan. By 2015, the population of working-age people—typically defined as those between ages 15 and 64—will begin to decline throughout the developed world, with the United States as the sole major exception. “The demographics are obviously more Getty Images/Alex Wong favourable than just about anywhere else in the Activists on Capitol Hill urge lawmakers on April 15 rich world,” says Richard Jackson, who directs the not to cut Medicare, the federal government’s health Global Aging Initiative at the Center for Strategic insurance program for the elderly and disabled. The and International Studies, a think tank in Wash- same day, however, the majority-Republican House ington. “We have an aging population, but at the approved a budget plan that would rein in Medicare end of the day, when the last of the boomers have costs. Democrats oppose the plan and intend to use it as a campaign issue in 2012. Economists say entitlement passed on to that great Woodstock in the sky, we’ll programs must be scaled back to control the country’s be about as old as Japan distributeand Italy are today. And deficit. we’ll have a growing population and not a stagnant or a declining one.” But the Unitedor States has a major problem But the population of the “old old”—those those other countries don’t have. Spending on over age 85—is growing, proportionately, faster. health care is far greater here than in other devel- America has the largest number of centenarians in oped countries and will only rise with the aging of the world, at 72,000—a total that has doubled over the population.5 the past 20 years and will at least double again by post,“We look as though our problem is very 2020, according to the Census Bureau.3 affordable, relative to other countries,” says Neil That’s the result of good news: increased life Howe, president of LifeCourse Associates, a expectancy that stems from improved medicine demographics consulting firm in Great Falls, Va., and nutrition and a drastic decline over recent and author of several books about demographics. decades in infant mortality. “The big factor that pushes hugely in the other “I assume that most people wouldcopy, like to live direction is health care. We are anomalous in that a long, full life, and that’s increasingly possible,” we have a system in which health care costs are says John Rother, policy director at AARP, the growing uncontrollably even before the age wave.” major advocacy group for seniors, formerly known Total enrollment in Medicare, the federal gov- as the American Associationnot of Retired Persons. ernment’s health insurance program for the elderly, “Advances in health care make that more likely for is expected to rise from 47 million today to just people.” over 80 million by 2030.6 Richard Foster, Medi- Still, Rother acknowledges that a good deal of care’s chief actuary, predicts the program’s trust concern exists Doabout the challenges posed by the fund could be depleted by 2024.7 aging population.