IMAGINE Baseline Analysis Report November 27, 2019 Table of Contents Background ........................................................................................................................... 6 Evaluation Design .................................................................................................................. 6 Study Setting ............................................................................................................................................. 7 Evaluation Study Design ............................................................................................................................ 8 Intervention Program Design .................................................................................................................... 9 Methods ............................................................................................................................. 11 Study population ..................................................................................................................................... 11 Sampling .................................................................................................................................................. 11 Sample size .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Weighting procedure .............................................................................................................................. 15 Bangladesh .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Niger ........................................................................................................................................................ 15 Baseline Analysis: Weighted Demographics, Priority Indicators, and Scales ......................................... 16 Characteristics of Primary and Secondary Samples ............................................................... 21 Overall Age, Marriage, and Pregnancy ................................................................................................... 21 Comparison between Primary and Secondary Demographics ............................................................... 21 Bangladesh .............................................................................................................................................. 22 Niger ........................................................................................................................................................ 23 Demographic Characteristics of Primary Sample Respondents ............................................. 24 Bangladesh .............................................................................................................................................. 24 Niger ........................................................................................................................................................ 26 Priority Indicators ................................................................................................................ 28 Bangladesh .............................................................................................................................................. 29 Niger ........................................................................................................................................................ 33 Priority Scales and Indices ................................................................................................... 37 Bangladesh .............................................................................................................................................. 37 Niger ........................................................................................................................................................ 39 Standardized Differences in Scale Means ............................................................................................... 41 Correlations of Priority Indicators, Scales, and Indexes......................................................... 44 Appendix A: Unweighted Estimates ..................................................................................... 46 Bangladesh Unweighted Demographics ................................................................................................. 46 Proprietary and Confidential Page 1 of 71 Niger Unweighted Demographics ........................................................................................................... 47 Bangladesh Unweighted Priority Indicators ........................................................................................... 48 Niger Unweighted Priority Indicators ..................................................................................................... 50 Bangladesh Unweighted Priority Scales and Indices .............................................................................. 52 Niger Unweighted Priority Scales and Indices ........................................................................................ 53 Appendix B: Primary and Secondary Sample Summary Tables .............................................. 54 Bangladesh Primary and Secondary Sample Counts .............................................................................. 54 Niger Primary and Secondary Sample Counts ........................................................................................ 55 Appendix C: Sampling and Response Rates .......................................................................... 56 Bangladesh Primary Sampling and Response Rates by Village ............................................................... 56 Bangladesh Secondary Sampling and Response Rates by Village ........................................................... 58 Niger Primary Sampling and Response Rates by Village ......................................................................... 61 Niger Secondary Sampling and Response Rates by Village .................................................................... 64 Appendix D: Preliminary Endline Analysis Plan ..................................................................... 67 Outcome Measures for Endline Analysis ................................................................................................ 67 Analytic Steps and Methods ................................................................................................................... 68 References .......................................................................................................................... 71 Proprietary and Confidential Page 2 of 71 List of Tables Evaluation Design .................................................................................................................. 6 Table 1. Summary of study design and methods used in Niger and Bangladesh. .................................... 9 Table 2. IMAGINE Theory of Change ......................................................................................................... 9 Methods ............................................................................................................................. 11 Table 3. Initial estimates of sample sizes, 2 countries, for small and large effect sizes ......................... 13 Table 4. Bangladesh Sampling Weights .................................................................................................. 15 Table 5. Niger Sampling Weights ............................................................................................................ 16 Characteristics of Primary and Secondary Samples ............................................................... 21 Table 6. Weighted Age, Marriage, and Pregnancy by Country and Study Arm – Combined Primary & Secondary Samples Baseline Data .......................................................................................................... 21 Table 7. Bangladesh Comparison between Primary and Secondary Sample Weighted Demographics – by Treatment & Control Baseline Data ................................................................................................... 22 Table 8. Niger Comparison between Primary and Secondary Sample Demographics – by Treatment & Control Baseline Data ............................................................................................................................. 23 Demographic Characteristics of Primary Sample Respondents ............................................. 24 Table 9. Bangladesh Weighted Means and Percentages of Primary Sample Demographics – Combined Treatment & Control Baseline Data ........................................................................................................ 24 Table 10. Bangladesh Weighted Primary Sample Demographics – by Treatment & Control Baseline Data ......................................................................................................................................................... 25 Table 11. Niger Weighted Means and Percentages of Primary Sample Demographics – Combined Treatment & Control Baseline Data ........................................................................................................ 26 Table 12. Niger Weighted Primary Sample Demographics – by Treatment & Control Baseline Data ... 27 Priority Indicators ...............................................................................................................