Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States— Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions NT O E F D M E T F R E A N P S E E D U N A I IC TE R D S ME TATES OF A OF TRAN NT SP E O M R T T R A A T P I O E N D U N A I C T I E R D E M ST A ATES OF Page 2 was blank in the printed version and has been omitted for web purposes. Page 2 was blank in the printed version and has been omitted for web purposes. Interim Pre-Pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States— Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions February 2007 Page 4 was blank in the printed version and has been omitted for web purposes. Page 4 was blank in the printed version and has been omitted for web purposes. Contents I Executive Summary ........................................................................ 07 II Introduction .................................................................................. 17 III Rationale for Proposed Nonpharmaceutical Interventions .......................... 23 IV Pre-pandemic Planning: the Pandemic Severity Index ............................. 31 V Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions by Severity Category ................... 35 VI Triggers for Initiating Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ................... 41 VII Duration of Implementation of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions.......................... 45 VIII Critical Issues for the Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ................... 47 IX Assessment of the Public on Feasibility of Implementation and Adherence ..... 49 X Planning to Minimize Consequences of Community Mitigation Strategy ....... 51 XI Testing and Exercising Community Mitigation Interventions ..................... 57 XII Research Needs ............................................................................. 59 XIII Conclusions ................................................................................. 63 XIV References ................................................................................... 65 XV Appendices .................................................................................. 71 Appendix 1. Glossary of Terms ........................................................... 71 Appendix 2. Interim Guidance Development Process ..................................... 75 Appendix 3. WHO Phases of a Pandemic/U.S. Government Stages of a Pandemic ....... 77 Appendix 4. Pandemic Influenza Community Mitigation Interim PlanningGuide for Businesses and Other Employers ........................ 79 Appendix 5. Pandemic Influenza Community Mitigation Interim PlanningGuide for Childcare Programs ..................................... 83 Appendix 6. Pandemic Influenza Community Mitigation Interim PlanningGuide for Elementary and Secondary Schools ..................... 87 Appendix 7. Pandemic Influenza Community Mitigation Interim PlanningGuide for Colleges and Universities ............................... 93 Appendix 8. Pandemic Influenza Community Mitigation Interim PlanningGuide for Faith-based and Community Organizations ............. 99 Appendix 9. Pandemic Influenza Community Mitigation Interim Planning Guide ....... 105 forIndividuals and Families Page 6 was blank in the printed version and has been omitted for web purposes. Page 6 was blank in the printed version and has been omitted for web purposes. I Executive Summary Purpose measures, and this interim guidance includes initial discussion of a potential strategy for This document provides interim planning combining the use of antiviral medications guidance for State, territorial, tribal, and local with these interventions. This guidance will be communities that focuses on several measures updated as new information becomes available other than vaccination and drug treatment that that better defines the epidemiology of influenza might be useful during an influenza pandemic transmission, the effectiveness of control to reduce its harm. Communities, individuals measures, and the social, ethical, economic, and and families, employers, schools, and other logistical costs of mitigation strategies. Over organizations will be asked to plan for the use time, exercises at the local, State, regional, and of these interventions to help limit the spread of Federal level will help define the feasibility of a pandemic, prevent disease and death, lessen these recommendations and ways to overcome the impact on the economy, and keep society barriers to successful implementation. functioning. This interim guidance introduces a Pandemic Severity Index to characterize The goals of the Federal Government’s response the severity of a pandemic, provides planning to pandemic influenza are to limit the spread of a recommendations for specific interventions pandemic; mitigate disease, suffering, and death; that communities may use for a given level of and sustain infrastructure and lessen the impact pandemic severity, and suggests when these on the economy and the functioning of society. measures should be started and how long they Without mitigating interventions, even a less should be used. The interim guidance will be severe pandemic would likely result in dramatic updated when significant new information about increases in the number of hospitalizations the usefulness and feasibility of these approaches and deaths. In addition, an unmitigated emerges. severe pandemic would likely overwhelm our nation’s critical healthcare services and Introduction impose significant stress on our nation’s critical infrastructure. This guidance introduces, for The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the first time, a Pandemic Severity Index in U.S. Department of Health and Human Services which the case fatality ratio (the proportion of in collaboration with other Federal agencies and deaths among clinically ill persons) serves as partners in the public health, education, business, the critical driver for categorizing the severity healthcare, and private sectors, has developed of a pandemic. The severity index is designed this interim planning guidance on the use of to enable better prediction of the impact of a nonpharmaceutical interventions to mitigate pandemic and to provide local decision-makers an influenza pandemic. These measures may with recommendations that are matched to the serve as one component of a comprehensive severity of future influenza pandemics. community mitigation strategy that includes both pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical 7 Community Mitigation Guidance It is highly unlikely that the most effective tool influenza. Isolation may occur in the home or for mitigating a pandemic (i.e., a well-matched healthcare setting, depending on the severity pandemic strain vaccine) will be available of an individual’s illness and /or the current when a pandemic begins. This means that we capacity of the healthcare infrastructure. must be prepared to face the first wave of the next pandemic without vaccine and potentially 2. Voluntary home quarantine of without sufficient quantities of influenza antiviral members of households with confirmed or medications. In addition, it is not known if probable influenza case(s) and consideration influenza antiviral medications will be effective of combining this intervention with the against a future pandemic strain. During a prophylactic use of antiviral medications, pandemic, decisions about how to protect the providing sufficient quantities of effective public before an effective vaccine is available medications exist and that a feasible means of need to be based on scientific data, ethical distributing them is in place. considerations, consideration of the public’s 3. Dismissal of students from school perspective of the protective measures and (including public and private schools as well their impact on society, and common sense. as colleges and universities) and school-based Evidence to determine the best strategies for activities and closure of childcare programs, protecting people during a pandemic is very coupled with protecting children and teenagers limited. Retrospective data from past influenza through social distancing in the community pandemics and the conclusions drawn from those to achieve reductions of out-of-school social data need to be examined and analyzed within contacts and community mixing. the context of modern society. Few of those conclusions may be completely generalizable; 4. Use of social distancing measures however, they can inform contemporary planning to reduce contact between adults in the assumptions. When these assumptions are community and workplace, including, for integrated into the current mathematical models, example, cancellation of large public gatherings the limitations need to be recognized, as they and alteration of workplace environments were in a recent Institute of Medicine report and schedules to decrease social density and (Institute of Medicine. Modeling Community preserve a healthy workplace to the greatest Containment for Pandemic Influenza. A extent possible without disrupting essential Letter Report. Washington, DC.: The National services. Enable institution of workplace leave Academies Press; 2006). policies that align incentives and facilitate adherence with the nonpharmaceutical The pandemic mitigation framework that is interventions (NPIs) outlined above. proposed is based upon an early, targeted, layered application of multiple partially All such community-based strategies should be effective nonpharmaceutical measures.