San Mateo County Transit District Final Report | November 2017 Photo By: Staticflicker.com Photo By: Clui.org ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS San Mateo County Transit District (SamTrans) AC Transit Board of Directors: Nathan Landau Rose Guilbault (Chair) Charles Stone (Vice Chair) CDM Smith Jeff Gee Camille Tsao Carole Groom Bill Hurrell Zoe Kersteen-Tucker Justin Fox Karyl Matsumoto Claudia Lea Dave Pine Fabian Gallardo Josh Powell Peter Martin Peter Ratto Paula Hirsch Executive Team: Juan Ramirez Jim Hartnett, Chief Executive Officer April Chan, Executive Officer, Planning & WSP (formerly Parsons Brinckerhoff) Development Danny Wu Seamus Murphy, Chief Communications Bryce Little Officer Alistair Sawers Nicholas Amrhein Project Team Auden Kaehler Caitlin Ghoshal Melissa Reggiardo Kyra Tao Doug Kim Matthew Woodhouse David Pape John Lowery Daniel Shockley William Hwang Brent Tietjen Bryce Little Lori Low Hilda Lafebre Fehr & Peers Joe Hurley Jerry Walters Pam Kwan Ian Barnes Lindsey Kiner Kara Vuicich Matt Verhoff Jennifer Ziebarth Chiachi Chen Arup Facebook (Funding Partner) Aidan Hughes Lewis Knight Tony Bruzzone Kevin Mathy Megan Gee Alameda County Transportation Commission HDR Engineering Matthew Bomberg Cathy LaFata Wayne Short Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Need and Purpose ....................................................................................................................................... 1-3 1.2 Existing and Future Conditions ............................................................................................................. 1-4 1.3 Alternatives Development ....................................................................................................................... 1-8 1.4 Conceptual Design and Cost Estimates ............................................................................................ 1-11 1.5 Travel Forecasting .................................................................................................................................... 1-12 1.6 Comparative Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 1-16 1.7 Key Findings ................................................................................................................................................ 1-17 1.8 Recommendations .................................................................................................................................... 1-19 1.9 Financing Options ..................................................................................................................................... 1-22 1.10 Next Steps ..................................................................................................................................................... 1-24 2 Introduction and Background ........................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Dumbarton Transportation Corridor Study .................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Study Area ...................................................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.3 Previous Dumbarton Corridor Studies .............................................................................................. 2-3 2.3.1 Previous Rail Studies ........................................................................................................................ 2-3 2.3.2 Facebook-Led Studies ...................................................................................................................... 2-6 2.4 Feasibility Study Process ......................................................................................................................... 2-7 2.4.1 Stakeholder and Public Outreach ................................................................................................ 2-8 2.5 Report Structure ........................................................................................................................................ 2-10 3 Need and Purpose ......................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Need for Transportation Improvements ........................................................................................... 3-1 3.2.1 Jobs-Housing Imbalance .................................................................................................................. 3-2 3.2.2 Lack of Regional Transportation Connectivity and Limited Transbay Travel Options.........................................................................................................................................................................3-3 3.2.3 Roadway Congestion and Lengthy Travel Times for Local and Transbay Commuters ................................................................................................................................................................ 3-5 3.3 Purpose of Transportation Improvements ...................................................................................... 3-8 3.3.1 Enhance Mobility for Local and Regional Travelers ........................................................... 3-8 3.3.2 Cost-Effective Improvements with a Return on Investment ........................................... 3-9 3.3.3 Manage and Minimize Environmental Impacts and Financial Risk, and Maximize Safety……………………………. .................................................................................................................................. 3-9 3.3.4 Ensure Local Communities are Protected from Adverse Impacts .............................. 3-10 4 Existing and Future Conditions ...................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Transportation Infrastructure ............................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Transportation System Performance ................................................................................................. 4-3 4.2.1 Rail System and Service ................................................................................................................... 4-3 4.2.2 Other Transit Systems and Services......................................................................................... 4-11 4.2.3 Roadways............................................................................................................................................. 4-21 4.2.4 Highways ............................................................................................................................................. 4-25 i Table of Contents 4.3 Current Demographic Analysis ........................................................................................................... 4-36 4.3.1 Ethnicity .............................................................................................................................................. 4-36 4.3.2 Low-Income ....................................................................................................................................... 4-36 4.3.3 Population Density .......................................................................................................................... 4-38 4.3.4 Employment Density ...................................................................................................................... 4-41 4.3.5 Single-Car Household .................................................................................................................... 4-42 4.4 Travel Market Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 4-44 4.4.1 Sources of Dumbarton Traffic .................................................................................................... 4-47 4.4.2 Composition of Dumbarton Traffic .......................................................................................... 4-50 4.4.3 Potential for Increased Transit Share ..................................................................................... 4-52 5 Initial Improvement Options ......................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 No Build Alternative ................................................................................................................................... 5-1 5.3 Short-Term Highway Bridge and Approach Improvements ..................................................... 5-1 5.3.1 Short-Term East Bay Bridge Approach Improvements ..................................................... 5-1 5.3.2 Short-Term Peninsula Bridge Approach Improvements ................................................... 5-2 5.3.3 Short-Term Transit Service Improvements ............................................................................ 5-2 5.3.4 Short-Term Bicycle and Pedestrian Improvements ............................................................ 5-3 5.3.5 Other Short-Term Enhancements 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