INDEPENDENT REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA January 2002 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS............................................................................III 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................1 2 OVERVIEW OF PANEL FINDINGS...........................................................................3 2.1 Background............................................................................................................ 3 2.2 State of the Science of the Meteorological Service of Canada.............................. 3 2.3 Appropriateness of the Science ............................................................................. 4 2.4 Factors Impacting the Research and Development Program’s Performance......... 4 2.5 Impacts and Assessment Activities in Support of the MSC Research and Development Program........................................................................................... 6 2.6 Recommendations ................................................................................................. 6 2.7 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................. 8 3 SUB-PANEL FINDINGS............................................................................................9 3.1 Climate Research................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Air Quality Research ........................................................................................... 12 3.3 Meteorology Research......................................................................................... 18 3.4 Summary List of Panel Findings ......................................................................... 23 APPENDIX A – PANEL MEMBERS..............................................................................28 Panel Chair ....................................................................................................................... 28 Climate Research Sub-Panel............................................................................................. 28 Air Quality Research Sub-Panel....................................................................................... 29 Adaptation and Impacts Research Sub-Panel ................................................................... 30 Meteorology Research Sub-Panel..................................................................................... 31 Secretariat Support............................................................................................................ 32 APPENDIX B – PANEL CONTACTS ............................................................................33 Climate Sub-Panel – On-Site Visit ................................................................................... 33 Air Quality Sub-Panel – On-Site Visit ............................................................................. 34 Adaptation and Impacts Research Sub-Panel – On-Site Visit.......................................... 35 Meteorology Research Sub-Panel – On-Site Visit ........................................................... 36 MSC R&D Review Final Report – January 2002 Page i ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ACSD Atmospheric and Climate Science Directorate AIRG Adaptation and Impacts Research Group AMWSD Atmospheric Monitoring and Water Survey Directorate AQRB Air Quality Research Branch AURAMS A Unified Regional Air Quality Modelling System BERMS Boreal Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Sites BEST Building Excellence in Science and Technology BOREAS Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study CAPMoN Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network CCCma Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CE Clean Environment CFCAS Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences CLASS Canadian Land Surface Scheme CMC Canadian Meteorological Centre COMET Cooperative Meteorology Education and Training CRB Climate Research Branch CSTA Council of Science and Technology Advisors CWRP Canadian Weather Research Program EC Environment Canada EKF Ensemble Kalman Filter EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPS Environmental Protection Service GAW Global Atmosphere Watch GCOS Global Climate Observing System GEM Global Environmental Model HAPS Hazardous Air Pollutants IPCC International Panel on Climate Change MAGS Mackenzie GEWEX Study MRB Meteorological Research Branch MSC Meteorological Service of Canada NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction NDSC Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change NWP Numerical Weather Prediction ODS Ozone Depleting Substance PM Particulate Matter POPs Persistent Organic Pollutants R&D Research and Development RDMQTM Research Data Management and Quality Control System RPN Recherche en Prévision Numérique S&T Science and Technology SAIB Science Assessment and Integration Branch WEP Weather and Environmental Prediction WMO World Meteorological Organization MSC R&D Review Final Report – January 2002 Page iii 1. INTRODUCTION Throughout the scientific community it is accepted that regular review of accomplishments and plans by a panel of external experts is a valuable mechanism for establishing future goals and priorities. External review is explicitly identified by the Council of Science and Technology Advisors (CSTA) as a means of ensuring excellence in science and technology (S&T) performed by the Government of Canada. This review of the Meteorological Service of Canada’s (MSC) research and development (R&D) activities was undertaken at a particularly opportune point in time. Occurring on the heels of significant resource reductions associated with Program Review and the reallocations of Living Within Our Means, the results of this review should provide meaningful input to the forward- looking Focusing on the Future exercise. To undertake the review, a panel of international experts was assembled. The panel was invited to review all aspects of MSC R&D with particular emphasis on excellence, relevance and impact of the science, and to provide an assessment and recommendations to senior management. The structure of the panel included several sub-panels, each with a particular area of expertise, and an overall panel chair, Dr. Elbert (Joe) Friday. A list of panel members and relevant biographical information are provided in Appendix A of this report. In conducting the review, the panel was provided with lists of publications and citations and a summary of accomplishments for each branch of Atmospheric and Climate Science Directorate (ACSD). Reference material included all relevant research agendas, strategic plans and business plans for MSC and for the Weather and Environmental Prediction (WEP) and the Clean Environment (CE) business lines. Information on related MSC Regional research activities was either available through prepared summaries or through telephone interviews. Results from surveys of clients/partners/stakeholders were also provided as background material. In addition to studying background material, the panel and sub-panels conducted on-site visits. These visits allowed for highly informative exchanges between panel members and a wide range of national and regional MSC managers and scientists as well as external collaborators, clients and peers. Appendix B provides a listing of presentations and interviews conducted during the on-site visits. Informal discussions were also undertaken by the panel chair with several other individuals within and outside of MSC. Inquiries concerning the MSC R&D review can be directed to Mr. Adam Fenech, Science Advisor to the Director General of ACSD at [email protected], or 416-739- 4267. MSC R&D Review Final Report – January 2002 Page 1 Page 2 Final Report– January 2002 MSC R&D Review 2. OVERVIEW OF PANEL FINDINGS 2.1 Background Climate and climate change are strategically important to Canada. Much has been learned during the past two decades about the changes anticipated in the global climate as a result of the increasing levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The changes are expected to be felt first in the more poleward latitudes, and will have major impacts on Canada. Even with all that has been learned, however, many important questions have yet to be answered, including the nature and scope of the regional changes and the response of the Canadian climate to many of the adaptation and mitigation strategies under consideration. Definitive understanding of climate change impacts on ecosystems, air quality, and water quantity and quality is still in its infancy. Air quality has been, and continues to be, a major issue for Canadians. As a result, Canada has been a world leader in the associated sciences. The same science base that supports the air quality research is also relevant to other issues such as the transport and diffusion of hazardous materials related to anti-terrorism activities. The citizens of Canada are subject to a wide variety of severe and routinely disruptive weather. Even though the northern location of the nation protects Canada from the high level of severe summer convective storms experienced by the United States, destructive thunderstorms and tornadoes do occur, and in some cases with little or no warning. The resulting hail, floods and strong, destructive winds constitute a significant threat to public safety. Canada also experiences major, large-scale storms bringing damaging winds and destructive