NSW Legislative Assembly election 2015: Two-party preferred results by polling place Background Paper No 2/2015 by Antony Green RELATED PUBLICATIONS 2015 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results by Antony Green (Background Paper 1/2015) NSW Legislative Assembly election 2011: Two-party preferred results by polling place, by Antony Green (Background Paper 1/2012) 2011 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results, by Antony Green (Background Paper 3/2011) 2011 NSW Election Preview – Analysis of past voting patterns by electorate, by Antony Green (Background Paper 1/2011) NSW Legislative Assembly Elections 2007: Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place, by Antony Green (Background Paper 2/2009) NSW Legislative Assembly Elections 2003: Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place, by Antony Green (Background Paper 7/2003) ISSN 1325-4456 ISBN 978-0-7313 1938-1 July 2015 © 2015 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior consent from the Manager, NSW Parliamentary Research Service, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. NSW Legislative Assembly election 2015: Two- party preferred results by polling place by Antony Green NSW PARLIAMENTARY RESEARCH SERVICE Gareth Griffith (BSc (Econ) (Hons), LLB (Hons), PhD), Manager, Politics & Government/Law .......................................... (02) 9230 2356 Daniel Montoya (BEnvSc (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Environment/Planning ......................... (02) 9230 2003 Lenny Roth (BCom, LLB), Senior Research Officer, Law ....................................................... (02) 9230 2768 Christopher Angus (BA(Media&Comm), LLM(Juris Doctor)), Research Officer, Law .................................................................. (02) 9230 2906 Tom Gotsis (BA, LLB, Dip Ed, Grad Dip Soc Sci) Research Officer, Law .................................................................. (02) 9230 3085 Andrew Haylen (BResEc (Hons)), Research Officer, Public Policy/Statistical Indicators .................. (02) 9230 2484 John Wilkinson (MA, PhD), Research Officer, Economics ...................................................... (02) 9230 2006 Should Members or their staff require further information about this publication please contact the author. Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/publications.nsf/V3LIstRPSubject Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. Introduction This publication provides detailed two-party and two-candidate preferred results by polling place for the 2015 New South Wales election. The publication is the latest in a series first published by the Parliamentary Library after the 1991 election and is a companion to "2015 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results", (Background Paper No 1/2015). As well as two-party and two-candidate preferred results, several tables of first preference results by polling place are provided on pages 1 to 9. These tables highlight polling places across the state where selected registered parties recorded their highest and lowest percentage first preference vote. The tables exclude most Declared Institution and Sydney Town Hall count centres. On page 10 are two tables that provide a breakdown of results by vote type. The first table provides percentage first preference, informal and two-party preferred vote by party by vote type for the 2015 election. The second table shows the changing proportion of vote recorded by vote type at New South Wales elections since 1984. This table highlights the declining proportion of the vote taken on polling day as well as the rise in postal and pre-poll voting. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results. The two-candidate preferred count in a contest is defined as the final tally of votes for the two remaining candidates in a contest after the successive distribution of preferences from excluded candidates. In most cases, the final pairing of candidates will represent a contest between the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition, a pairing that is also referred as a two-party preferred count. At the 2015 election there were 77 electorates where the two-candidate preferred count was also the two-party preferred count between Labor and Coalition candidates. The remaining 16 electorates produced six Liberal-Green contests (Davidson, Manly, North Shore, Pittwater, Vaucluse, Willoughby), three Labor-Green contests (Balmain, Newtown, Summer Hill), two National-Green contests (Ballina, Lismore), two National-Independent contests (Murray, Tamworth), two Labor- Independent contests (Lake Macquarie, Wollongong) and one Liberal-Independent contest (Sydney). A full summary of two-party and two-candidate preferred results by electorate can be found on pages 31-33 of "2015 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results", (Background Paper No 1/2015). This publication contains actual two-candidate preferred results by polling place and vote type for all 93 electorates, as well as additional tables of actual two-party preferred results by polling place for the sixteen electorates that did not finish as two-party preferred contests. Changes to Counting Procedures The NSW Electoral Commission radically changed its counting procedures for the 2015 election. As in the past, initial counts were conducted by hand in polling places and in the various centres where declaration and pre-poll votes were counted. Indicative preference counts were also conducted in this initial phase. The major change in 2015 was the abandonment of the traditional manual check count. Instead, check counts were undertaken by data entering all lower house ballot papers. Once all ballot papers had been entered, the distribution of preferences and formal declaration of the poll was completed by computer. Having captured all ballot paper details, it was also possible for the Electoral Commission to carry out alternate two-party preferred counts without having to re-count the ballot papers. The results in this publication are drawn from the Electoral Commission's counting system. Reading the Tables Each table in this publication contains count information for each polling place, each pre-poll voting centre, as well as totals for the various categories of declaration votes. Totals are provided for ordinary polling day votes, for pre-poll votes and for declaration votes. Total votes and percentages after preferences are provided for each polling place or vote type, as well as a total of exhausted preferences, formal and informal votes. Abbreviations ALP Labor Party CLR Country Labor GRN Greens IND Independent LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party Exhst Exhausted votes (ext) External polling place Acknowledgments I would like to thank the NSW Electoral Commissioner Mr Colin Barry and the staff of his Commission for making results of the 2015 election available by polling place in computer readable format. The author takes responsibility for the calculations of percentages in all tables as well as the vote type calculations on page 10, and the ordering for first preference votes. Antony Green July 2015 Table of Contents Highest Primary Vote Tables Page Liberal Party 1 The Nationals 2 Labor Party 3 The Greens 4 Christian Democratic Party 5 No Land Tax 6 Lowest Primary Vote Tables Liberal Party 7 The Nationals 8 Labor Party 9 Vote by Vote Type Percentage Party Vote by Vote Type at 2015 Election 10 Percentage of Votes Cast by Vote Type - NSW Elections 1984-2015 10 Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place Albury 11 Auburn 12 Ballina (with additional two-party preferred table) 13 Balmain (with additional two-party preferred table) 15 Bankstown 17 Barwon 18 Bathurst 19 Baulkham Hills 20 Bega 21 Blacktown 22 Blue Mountains 23 Cabramatta 24 Camden 25 Campbelltown 26 Canterbury 27 Castle Hill 28 Cessnock 29 Charlestown 30 Clarence 31 Coffs Harbour 32 Coogee 33 Cootamundra 34 Cronulla 35 Davidson (with additional two-party preferred table) 36 Drummoyne 38 Dubbo 39 East Hills 40 Epping 41 Fairfield 42 Gosford 43 Goulburn 44 Granville 45 Hawkesbury 46 Heathcote 47 Heffron 48 Holsworthy 49 Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place Page Hornsby 50 Keira 51 Kiama 52 Kogarah 53 Ku-ring-gai 54 Lake Macquarie (with additional two-party preferred table) 55 Lakemba 57 Lane Cove 58 Lismore (with additional two-party preferred table) 59 Liverpool 61 Londonderry 62 Macquarie Fields 63 Maitland 64 Manly (with additional two-party preferred table) 65 Maroubra 67 Miranda 68 Monaro 69 Mount Druitt 70 Mulgoa 71 Murray (with additional two-party preferred table) 72 Myall Lakes 74 Newcastle 75 Newtown (with additional two-party preferred table) 76 North Shore (with additional two-party preferred table) 78 Northern Tablelands 80 Oatley 81 Orange 82 Oxley 83 Parramatta 84 Penrith 85 Pittwater (with additional two-party preferred table) 86 Port Macquarie 88 Port Stephens 89 Prospect 90 Riverstone 91 Rockdale 92 Ryde 93 Seven Hills 94 Shellharbour 95 South Coast 96 Strathfield 97 Summer Hill (with additional two-party preferred table) 98 Swansea 100 Sydney (with additional two-party preferred table) 101 Tamworth (with additional two-party preferred table)