Coconino National Forest ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT March 28, 2008 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 4 ORGANIZATION........................................................................................................................................ 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 8 Economic Conditions and Trends........................................................................................................8 Social Conditions and Trends............................................................................................................10 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ........................................................................................... 26 Employment.......................................................................................................................................26 Current Condition ..........................................................................................................................26 Trends ............................................................................................................................................26 Income ...............................................................................................................................................30 Current Condition ..........................................................................................................................30 Trends ............................................................................................................................................34 Payments to States .............................................................................................................................35 Current Condition ..........................................................................................................................35 Trends ............................................................................................................................................35 Coconino National Forest Economic Contribution Analysis.............................................................37 SOCIAL CONDITIONS AND TRENDS .................................................................................................. 49 Demographics....................................................................................................................................49 Migration ...........................................................................................................................................51 Age Distribution ................................................................................................................................51 Race and Ethnic Distribution.............................................................................................................52 Educational Attainment .....................................................................................................................55 Housing..............................................................................................................................................56 Current Conditions and Trends of Forest Contribution to Social Systems........................................59 Attitudes, Values, and Beliefs Focus Group Results .....................................................................60 Tribal Values .................................................................................................................................61 National Forest Land Use Trends ......................................................................................................64 Land-Ownership, Open Space, Land Exchanges, and other Land-ownership Adjustments .........64 Fire Effects and Management........................................................................................................66 Water and Watersheds ...................................................................................................................68 Dark Skies......................................................................................................................................74 Invasive Species.............................................................................................................................74 Special-Use Permits.......................................................................................................................77 Livestock Grazing..........................................................................................................................78 Forest Products and Timber Production ........................................................................................80 Minerals Management ...................................................................................................................81 Recreation......................................................................................................................................82 Wildlife..........................................................................................................................................84 Wilderness .....................................................................................................................................86 Archaeology...................................................................................................................................87 Current Conditions and Trends of National Forest Land Use Social Contributions..........................90 Motorized Access and Travel Management ......................................................................................92 Current Conditions and Trends of Sustainable Forest Travel and Access Contribution ...................94 Community Relationships .................................................................................................................95 Current Conditions and Trends of Sustainable Forest Community Relationships ............................98 GLOSSARY ............................................................................................................................................... 99 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................... 101 1 List of Tables Table 1. Total Employment and Employment by Type, 1990–2000 with Percentage of Change........27 Table 2. Description of Trends, Risks, and the Effects to Management of Employment.....................30 Table 3. Poverty Levels by Race/Ethnicity, 1999.................................................................................31 Table 4. Description of Trends, Risks, and the Effects to Management of Income. ............................34 Table 5. Estimated Coconino Associated PILT and SRSCS Payments by County, 2002–2005..........36 Table 6. 25 Percent Funds per County from 1986 to 1999...................................................................36 Table 7. Description of Trends, Risks, and the Effects to Management of Payments to States. ..........37 Table 8. Coconino National Forest Estimated Labor Income Contribution by Resource Program......42 Table 9. Coconino National Forest Estimated Employment Contribution by Resource Program........43 Table 10. Coconino National Forest Estimated Labor Income Contribution by Industry....................44 Table 11. Coconino National Forest Estimated Employment Contribution by Industry......................45 Table 12. Current Role of Coconino National Forest Contributions to Local Economy......................46 Table 13. Description of Current Condition, Risks, and the Effects to Management of the Coconino National Forest’s Economic Contribution. ....................................................................................47 Table 14. Total Area, Total Population, Population Density, and Forest Service Acreage by County and Place........................................................................................................................................50 Table 15. Educational Attainment for County and State Populations 25-Yrs. Old and Over. (X) in the table, below, indicate missing data. ...............................................................................................56 Table 16. Description of Trends, Risks, and the Affects to Management of Demographics................58 Table 17. County and State Population Projections, 2010–2030 and Percent Change.........................59 Table 18. Description of Trends, Risks, and the Affects to Management of Tribes.............................63 Table 19. Description of Trends, Risks, and the Effects to Management of Land Ownership, Open Spaces, Land Exchanges, and other Land Adjustments. ...............................................................66 Table 20. Management of Fire and WUI, Description of Trends, Risks, and the Effects....................67 Table 21. Description of Trends, Risks, and the Effects to Management of Water and Watersheds. ..72 Table 22. Description of Trends, Risks, and the Affects to Management Dark Skies..........................74 Table 23. Description of Trends, Risks, and the Effects to Management of Invasive Species.............76 Table 24. Description of