Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Treaty of Olympia Tribes A Report to the Quinault Indian Nation, Hoh Tribe, and Quileute Tribe Prepared by The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute February 2016 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Treaty of Olympia Tribes A report to the Quinault Indian Nation, Hoh Tribe, and Quileute Tribe February 2016 Compiled and Edited by: Meghan Dalton Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences 104 CEOAS Admin Building Oregon State University Corvallis, OR 97331 Contributors: Meghan Dalton, Samantha Chisholm Hatfield, Philip Mote, Darrin Sharp (OCCRI) Katherine Serafin, Peter Ruggiero, Nicholas Cohn, Matthew Conlin Oregon State University – College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences Gordon Reeves, Lee Benda United States Forest Service Michael Case, Josh Lawler University of Washington – School of Forest Resources We acknowledge the valuable input, guidance, and review provided by the following people: Joe Schumacker, Carolyn Kelly, Daniel Ravenel, James Plampin, Nancy Eldridge, Jim Jorgensen, Scott Mazzone, Larry Gilbertson, Jessica Helsley, Janet Clark, Tony Hartrich Quinault Indian Nation Joseph Gilbertson, Nicolas Pfeffer-Taggart Hoh Tribe Jennifer Hagen, Katie Krueger, Mel Moon Quileute Tribe Cover photo credits: (top) Lake Quinault, Larry Workman (left) First Beach, Quileute Reservation, Katie Krueger (right) Western hemlock forest, Quinault Indian Reservation, Larry Workman Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2: Regional Climate Change ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 3: Terrestrial Environment ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 Trees ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Understory Vegetation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Mammals ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Birds .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Chapter 4: Freshwater Environment ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 5: Coastal Hazards ...................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 6: Marine Environment .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 7: Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................................. 16 1.1 Project Genesis ................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 1.2 Western Olympic Peninsula ........................................................................................................................................................... 16 1.3 Treaty of Olympia ............................................................................................................................................................................. 16 1.4 Treaty of Olympia Tribes ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 1.5 Tribal Culture & Climate Change ................................................................................................................................................ 18 1.6 Vulnerability Assessment Approach ........................................................................................................................................... 18 References ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 2: Regional Climate Change ............................................................................................. 21 2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 2.2 Emissions Scenarios ......................................................................................................................................................................... 21 2.3 Temperature ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 22 2.4 Precipitation ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 25 2.5 Snowpack ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 2.6 Streamflow .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 2.7 Wildfires ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 2.8 Sea Level Rise .................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 References ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36 Chapter 3: Terrestrial Environment .............................................................................................. 38 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 3.2 Forests ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 3.2.1 Wildfires ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 39 3.2.2 Insects & Diseases ........................................................................................................................................................................ 39 3.2.3 Invasive Species ............................................................................................................................................................................. 39 3.3 Wetlands ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 41 3.4 Prairies .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42 3.5 Vegetation & Wildlife Species ..................................................................................................................................................... 43 3.5.1 Climate Change Sensitivity Factors ....................................................................................................................................... 44 3.5.2 Species Range Projections ......................................................................................................................................................... 46 3.5.3 Trees 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