2017 Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/suscripciones 2017 Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2 Executive summary Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Antonio Prado Deputy Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Chief, Division of Production, Productivity and Management Ricardo Pérez Chief, Publications and Web Services Division The 2017 version of Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean is the most recent edition of an annual series published by the Unit on Investment and Corporate Strategies of the Division of Production, Productivity and Management of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This year’s edition was prepared by Álvaro Calderón, Wilson Peres, Cecilia Plottier and Mathilde Closset, under the coordination of Giovanni Stumpo. The databases were prepared by Leandro Cabello. Comments and suggestions were received from Mario Cimoli, Martín Abeles, Juan Carlos Ramírez, Olga Lucía Acosta, Tania García-Millán, Georgina Núñez, Claudia de Camino, Nicolo Gligo and Olaf de Groot. Thanks are due to the government authorities and executives of companies consulted, for their inputs for the preparation of this document. Any comments or suggestions concerning the contents of this document should be addressed to Giovanni Stumpo ([email protected]) and Álvaro Calderón ([email protected]). The boundaries and names shown on the maps included in this publication do not imply offcial acceptance or endorsement by the United Nations. United Nations publication ISBN: 978-92-1-121962-3 (print) ISBN: 978-92-1-058599-6 (pdf) ISBN: 978-92-1-358065-3 (ePub) Sales No.: E.17.II.G.4 LC/PUB.2017/18-P Distr.: General Copyright © United Nations, 2017 Explanatory notes All rights reserved - Three dots (…) indicate that data are missing, are not available or are not separately reported. Printed at United Nations, Santiago - A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. - A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. S.17-00815 - The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specifed. - A slash (/) between years (e.g., 2013/2014) indicates a 12-month period falling between the two years. - Individual fgures and percentages in tables may not always add up to the corresponding total due to rounding. This publication should be cited as: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2017 (LC/PUB.2017/18-P), Santiago, 2017. Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Publications and Web Services Division, [email protected]. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean • 2017 Contents 3 CONTENTS Executive summary.................................................................................................................................................... 9 Chapter I Foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean ...................................................................... 21 A. 2016: a turning point in globalization ............................................................................................................. 23 B. Global FDI flows are returning to advanced economies ................................................................................ 25 1. The United States and European Union are the main receiving countries ............................................. 27 2. China’s growing influence is consolidating the globalization triad ........................................................ 29 C. The region’s complex scenario ....................................................................................................................... 33 1. FDI fell by 7.8% in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2016 ................................................................ 33 2. Rising star: non-conventional energy ..................................................................................................... 36 3. Lack of diversification among countries of origin ................................................................................... 40 4. FDI remains the most stable component of capital inflows .................................................................... 43 5. Decreasing FDI profitability is damaging investment prospects ............................................................. 45 D. A weak year for trans-Latin firms ................................................................................................................... 48 E. It is essential to rethink strategies to attract FDI ........................................................................................... 52 F. Country analysis: instances of FDI growth are few and far between ............................................................ 54 1. Investment in Brazil remains resilient despite the recession ................................................................. 56 2. The rest of South America has yet to recover ......................................................................................... 59 3. Mexico: end of the growth run? .............................................................................................................. 64 4. Central America: Panama performs well ................................................................................................ 66 5. The Dominican Republic still leads in the Caribbean .............................................................................. 70 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................... 76 Annex I.A1 ............................................................................................................................................................. 78 Chapter II Disruptive change in a leading sector: relocation, business models and technological revolution in the global automotive industry .......................................................................................................................... 87 A. An industry in constant change ..................................................................................................................... 89 B. The new geography: the rise of East Asia ...................................................................................................... 89 1. Redefining the global oligopoly: a new triad of regions ......................................................................... 90 2. Stability among the dominant enterprise group ..................................................................................... 94 3. International trade continues to be intrafirm and intraregional ........................................................... 100 C. Newcomers are challenging the traditional players .................................................................................... 103 1. Competition among the top manufacturers ........................................................................................... 103 2. The increasing power of suppliers......................................................................................................... 108 D. Production models based on advanced technologies................................................................................... 110 1. The new production platforms ............................................................................................................... 110 2. Investments in innovation ...................................................................................................................... 111 E. Disruptive changes on the short-term horizon ............................................................................................. 117 1. The digitization of the industry .............................................................................................................. 119 2. Mobility, connectivity and new patterns of consumption ..................................................................... 129 3. A regulatory context for sustainability .................................................................................................. 131 F. An industry between technological upheaval and the redefinition of global leadership ............................ 136 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................................... 138 Anexo II.A1 .......................................................................................................................................................... 146 4 Contents Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Chapter III The automotive