University of Alberta Perception of Climate Change Among Egyptians Living in Egypt and Canada By Tarek Ahmed Zaki A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science In Rural Sociology Department of Resources Economics and Environmental Sociology ©Tarek Ahmed Zaki Fall 2011 Edmonton, Alberta Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. 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Abstract This thesis explores the risk perception of climate change among Egyptians who reside in Canada and Egyptians who reside in Egypt. It applies a quantitative comparative analysis of these two populations to assess differences in risk perception of climate change and the influence of world views. Data for Egyptian residents was taken from a World Bank study about global perspectives on climate change; data for Canadian residents was taken from two Egyptian associations in Alberta. To explore factors associated with risk perception of climate change (and to explore the Canadian social context of risk perception in more detail) variables were added to the Canadian dataset such as access to information about climate change, socio-economic conditions and belief in self-responsibility. Results show that the Egyptian population has a significantly higher risk perception of climate change than the Egyptian Canadian population. Also there are significant differences in the way world views are associated with risk perception of climate change. Access to general knowledge about climate change and belief in self- responsibility about climate change was significantly associated with risk perception of climate change in the Egyptian Canadian sample. This research outcome raises questions about sources and content of this knowledge of climate change, and implications for public risk perception and policy development options for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Perception of Climate Change Among Egyptians Living in Egypt and Canada Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction……………………………………………………………………….1 Chapter 2: Conceptual Background and literature review………………………………....7 Global climate change.................................................................................................................7 What is risk perception? ……………………………………………………………………......9 Global reports on climate change risk perception……………………………………………..10 Theories of risk………………………………………………………………………………...18 Beliefs and attitudes…………………………………………………………………………...20 Risk perception studies………………………………………………………………………..22 Cultural theory and risk perception…………………………………………………………...24 Immigration and Egyptian immigrants………………………………………………..………27 Public opinion and policy process………………………………………………….…………28 Summary……………………………………….……………………………………………...31 Chapter 3: Research methods……………………………………………………………….32 Chapter 4: Findings………………………………………………………………………….40 Descriptive analysis…………………………..……………………………………………….40 The regression models……………………..……………………………………………….…51 Chapter 5: Results Discussion……………………………………………………………....56 Chapter 6: Conclusion……………………………………………………………….………63 Study limitation……………………………………………………………………………….65 Future work…………………………………………………………………………………...65 Chapter 6: References...........................................................................................................67 Chapter 7: Appendix: Survey Instrument……………………………………………...….76 Figures Figure 1. “Have you ever heard of the environmental problem of global warming”…..11 Figure 2. “Is climate change a problem?”...........................................................................13 Figure 3. “Dealing with the problem of climate change should be given priority?”……15 Figure 4. “When will climate change harm people substantially?”..................................16 Figure 5. Average country response to questions about the effects of climate change…17 Tables Table 1. The Egyptian sample geographic distribution……………………………….…..33 Table 2. The Egyptian Demographic characteristics………………………………….…..34 Table 3. The Egyptian sample Levels of education………….……………………….…....35 Table 4. Mean attitude score of statements about risk perception………………….…....40 Table5. Levels of Education within the Egyptian sample ………………………….….....42 Table 6. Is climate change a serious problem? ...................................................................42 Table 7. Climate change as a priority..................................................................................43 Table 8. Description of indicators of effects of climate change.........................................44 Table 9. Timing of impacts of climate change………………………………….…………44 Table 10. Distribution of males and females in the two samples……………….……..…45 Table 11. Changes in knowledge and socio-economic conditions.....................................46 Table 12. Beliefs about climate change…………………………………………………....47 Table 13. Attitudes about climate change……….……………………………………......48 Table 14. Willingness to bear economic costs to support national actions………...…...49 Table 15. Age of Egyptian and Canadian sample and duration living in Canada…………………………………………….……..………………………….…...…50 Table 16. OLS Regression models......................................................................................51 Chapter 1: Introduction Climate change is considered one of the main environmental phenomena that has drawn the world’s attention in recent decades. Climate change has the potential for multiple negative impacts on human life and human health generally, especially in developing countries because of the difficulty of adapting and implementing public health programs (Patz et al. 2002; Haines et al. 2006). It may also cause changes in the way and place that diseases develop and transform (Haines et al. 2006). Mortality rates are expected to be higher with the increase in temperature, as heat waves are expected to increase in some parts of the world (Patz et al. 2005). Climate change is expected to have a great effect on regional water resources and water supply, as the demand for water and water quality is expected to change. Climate change is likely to affect many water-related aspects of human well-being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood control, municipal and industrial water supply, water quality, and water quality-related human health. Climate change can alter the amount of water available for use through increased evaporative losses from bodies of water, reduced runoff, and increasing competition between different sectors (McCarl, 2006). Climate change has affected different species, populations, distributions, and interactions; it also jeopardized some species to the point of extinction (Thomas et al., 2004; Parmesan et al. 2006). Biodiversity is expected to be negatively impacted through reduced habitat suitability and reproduction performance (Hulme 2005). Many organisms in various geographic regions have been affected; common changes relate to timing of spring activities: