AIR UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AIR UNIVERSITY PRESS Artificial Intelligence, China, Russia, and the Global Order Technological, Political, Global, and Creative Perspectives Shazeda Ahmed (UC Berkeley), Natasha E. Bajema (NDU), Samuel Bendett (CNA), Benjamin Angel Chang (MIT), Rogier Creemers (Leiden University), Chris C. Demchak (Naval War College), Sarah W. Denton (George Mason University), Jeffrey Ding (Oxford), Samantha Hoffman (MERICS), Regina Joseph (Pytho LLC), Elsa Kania (Harvard), Jaclyn Kerr (LLNL), Lydia Kostopoulos (LKCYBER), James A. Lewis (CSIS), Martin Libicki (USNA), Herbert Lin (Stanford), Kacie Miura (MIT), Roger Morgus (New America), Rachel Esplin Odell (MIT), Eleonore Pauwels (United Nations University), Lora Saalman (EastWest Institute), Jennifer Snow (USSOCOM), Laura Steckman (MITRE), Valentin Weber (Oxford) Air University Press Muir S. Fairchild Research Information Center Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama Opening remarks provided by: Library of Congress Cataloging-in- Publication Data Brig Gen Alexus Grynkewich (JS J39) Names: TBD. and Lawrence Freedman (King’s College, Title: Artificial Intelligence, China, Russia, and the Global Order : Techno- London) logical, Political, Global, and Creative Perspectives / Nicholas D. Wright. Editor: Other titles: TBD Nicholas D. Wright (Intelligent Biology) Description: TBD Identifiers: TBD Integration Editor: Subjects: TBD Mariah C. Yager (JS/J39/SMA/NSI) Classification: TBD LC record available at TBD AIR UNIVERSITY PRESS COLLABORATION TEAM Published by Air University Press in October 2019 Project Editors Dr. Ernest Gunasekara- Rockwell Cover Art, Book Design, and Illustrations L. Susan Fair Composition and Prepress Production Megan N. Hoehn Nedra O. Looney Print Preparation and Distribution Diane Clark Director, Air University Press Lt Col Darin Gregg Disclaimer Air University Press 600 Chennault Circle, Building 1405 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6010 implied within are solely those of the authors and do not neces- https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/AUPress/ sarily represent the official policy or position of the organizations with which they are associated or the views of the Air University Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AirUnivPress Press, Air University, United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. This publication is and cleared for public release and unlimited distribution. Twitter: https://twitter.com/aupress Air University Press Dedicated to Muir S. Fairchild (1894–1950), the first commander of Air University and the university’s conceptual father. General Fairchild was part visionary, part keen taskmaster, and “Air Force to the core.” His legacy is one of confidence about the future of the Air Force and the central role of Air University in that future. Series Preface Air University Press and Air University Library are pleased to welcome the relaunch of the Fairchild Series—an academic series of focused on essential issues connected with the highest levels of research. Fairchild Series have been on hiatus for several years, but the “brand name” remains strong. Gen Muir Stephen Fairchild served in uniform from 1913 to 1950, including time as a National Guard sergeant during the Mexican Expedition, a bomber pilot on the Western Front during World War I, the Air Force’s vice chief of staff, and the first leader of Air University. His varied experiences and commands propelled his work to be multifaceted yet centripetal, and Air University re- flects that vision in so many ways. The volume presented here is an exceptional example of a focused study from academics and active practitioners representing both civilian and mili- tary institutions. With changing security issues present on the global land- scape, the work of the many collaborators within provides information that is imperative to our understanding of new threats and opportunities. Couple this with the ever-expansive role of technology embodied in artificial intelligence (AI), and the rationale to review the vital discussions in this paper is evident. While the original purpose of the series some decades ago was to print “essays considered too short for publication as monographs but too lengthy to be journal articles,” the series has expanded to book-length works to provide coverage and high-level analysis of strategic military issues. Previous editions of the Fairchild Series have explored topics that were current at the time of publication and are still salient today—issues such as space power, combat support doctrine, the role of female officers in the armed services, new war-fighting technologies, expeditionary operations in remote areas across the world, and the harnessing of Air Force intellect. The continual need to review and renew our educational resources, systems, and practices is at the heart of why this series persists. With this in mind, it is important to reflect on General Fairchild’s words when he spoke at the opening of Air University in 1946 and declared: We have not attempted to create an educational program “for all time.” The Air University must remain a dynamic institution constantly tuned to the future. There is no place in such a system for traditionalism, rigidity of mind, or dogma. At all cost, these must be avoided in our attempt to produce an officer corps with a sense of values and proportion, capable of original, flexible, for- ward looking thought. Air University Press and Air University Library welcome ideas for the Fair- child Series as we grow our organizations’ ability to promote a continuum of ivv learning. We are committed to providing access to the world of knowledge, and the Fairchild Series play a part in disseminating information that is per- tinent to the everyday needs and strategic thinking of the entire military. As you examine AI, China, Russia, and the Global Order we encourage you to think about how, individually and collectively, we can share information and contribute to the long-term educational process of all. Let the conversation continue. LT COL DARIN GREGG, USAF ALISHA MILES, MLIS Director, Air University Press Director, Air University Library v Preface: US perspective Given the wide-­­ranging implications for global competition, domestic po- litical systems and daily life, US policymakers must prepare for the impacts of new artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies. Anticipating AI’s impacts on the global order requires US policy makers’ awareness of certain key as- pects of the AI-­­related technologies—and how those technologies will inter- act with the rapidly changing global system of human societies. One area that has received little in-­­depth examination to date is how AI-related­­ technolo- gies could affect countries’ domestic political systems—whether authoritar- ian, liberal democratic, or a hybrid of the two—and how they might impact global competition between different regimes. This work highlights several key areas where AI-­­related technologies have clear implications for globally integrated strategic planning and requirements development: • Since 2012, new AI-related­­ technologies have entered the real world with rapidly accelerating scale and speed. While the character of these tech- nologies currently favors enhanced surveillance, it is limited by a need for extensive human involvement and the preparation of big-data­­ plat- forms. This will likely dominate current efforts to incorporate AI into social governance, as we see now in China. • AI may help enable a plausible competitor to liberal democracy allowing large and industrially sophisticated states to make their citizens rich while maintaining rigid control. China is now building core components of such a system of digital authoritarianism. Such systems are already being emulated in a global competition with liberal democracy. • Russia has a different political regime than China. The Russian model is a hybrid that relies on a mix of less overt and often nontechnical mecha- nisms to manipulate online information flows. Competition for influ- ence between digital liberal democracy and more authoritarian digital regimes will occur at many levels: international institutions (and norms), nation states, and corporations. The United States must adopt a multifac- eted approach to influence with allies and crucial swing states. It must also carefully prevent unwanted escalation of this competition—as a number of contributors argue in this work, insecurity drives much of Chinese and Russian decision making. • China’s foreign policy decision making will not necessarily become more expansionist if its domestic regime becomes more authoritarian. Mapping vii out AI’s effects on foreign policy choices requires mapping them out within the domestic ecosystem and content from which those choices emanate. • Military dimensions of global competition will change with AI. Hackers become more prominent, and new crisis escalation risks emerge. Chinese domestic social governance systems that become ever more reliant on vast digital systems will be tempting targets for adversaries—a fact likely to prompt Chinese regime insecurity that may feed a spiraling security dilemma. The emerging digital liberal democracy in the United States, digital hybrid regime in Russia, and digital authoritarian regime in China will each exert influences far beyond their physical borders. This competition for influence will likely prove a defining feature of the twenty-first-­­ ­­century global system. We must not be caught