Final Report March 2010 Submitted by: SYSTRA Consulting, Inc. In Association with: Fitzgerald & Halliday, Inc. Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc. AECOM Central New Jersey/Raritan Valley Transit Study – Pennsylvania Component Final Report TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 1. Purpose and Need.................................................................................................................................1 1.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................1 1.2. Study Area...................................................................................................................................1 1.3. Existing Study Area Transit Services and Park-and-Rides .........................................................3 1.4. Study Goals and Objectives.........................................................................................................4 1.5. Planning Context .........................................................................................................................6 2. Public Involvement ..............................................................................................................................7 3. Alternatives Considered .......................................................................................................................8 3.1. Long List Alternatives Development and Screening Process......................................................8 3.2. Future No Build Condition..........................................................................................................9 3.2.1. Commuter Rail Service.......................................................................................................9 3.2.2. Commuter Bus Service .....................................................................................................10 3.3. Shortlisted Bus Alternatives ......................................................................................................10 3.3.1. Overview...........................................................................................................................10 3.3.2. Bus Service Plans and Equipment ....................................................................................10 3.3.3. Bus Routes ........................................................................................................................11 3.4. Shortlisted Rail Alternative .......................................................................................................14 3.4.1. Overview...........................................................................................................................14 3.4.2. Rail Service Plan and Equipment .....................................................................................14 3.4.3. Rail Alignment/Right-of-Way ..........................................................................................15 3.4.4. Proposed Rail Stations......................................................................................................22 3.4.5. Rail Maintenance Facility/Yard........................................................................................23 4. Environmental Analysis .....................................................................................................................27 4.1. Regulatory Context....................................................................................................................27 4.2. Environmental Screening Methodology....................................................................................28 4.3. Environmental Analysis Results................................................................................................28 5. Ridership Forecasts ............................................................................................................................30 5.1. Methodology..............................................................................................................................30 5.2. Assumptions ..............................................................................................................................30 5.2.1. Demographics .......................................................................................................................30 5.2.2. Roadway and Existing Transit Network ...............................................................................31 5.2.3. Costs......................................................................................................................................31 5.2.4. Off-model Ridership (for Rail Alternative Only)..................................................................31 5.3. Ridership Results.......................................................................................................................32 5.3.1. Express Bus to New York Service ........................................................................................32 5.3.2. Express Bus to Bridgewater Service .....................................................................................33 5.3.3. Allentown to Newark/New York Commuter Rail Service....................................................33 6. Cost Estimation ..................................................................................................................................37 6.1. Operating and Maintenance Costs and Revenue .......................................................................37 6.2. Farebox Recovery......................................................................................................................37 6.3. Capital Costs..............................................................................................................................38 7. Findings/Next Steps ...........................................................................................................................40 March 2010 Central New Jersey/Raritan Valley Transit Study – Pennsylvania Component Final Report LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Existing Lehigh Valley Bus Park-and-Ride Utilization..................................................................3 Table 2: Pennsylvania Parkers at New Jersey Park-and-Ride Facilities.......................................................4 Table 3: Study Goals and Objectives............................................................................................................6 Table 4: Long List to Short List Alternative Screening Results ...................................................................8 Table 5: Short List Alternatives....................................................................................................................9 Table 6: Bus Alternatives Travel Times .....................................................................................................11 Table 7: Forecasted Rail Travel Times.......................................................................................................15 Table 8: Proposed Passenger Track Alignment Summary..........................................................................18 Table 9: Environmental Analysis Summary ...............................................................................................29 Table 10: Average Daily Year 2030 Express Bus to New York Ridership ................................................32 Table 11: Average Daily Year 2030 Express Bridgewater Bus Ridership .................................................33 Table 12: Forecasted Year 2030 Average Daily Rail Ridership................................................................34 Table 13: Source of New Rail System Trips (Year 2030) .........................................................................35 Table 14: Origins of Rail Riders by Station...............................................................................................36 Table 15: Destination of Lehigh Valley Rail Riders..................................................................................36 Table 16: Forecasted Year 2030 Average Daily Riders by Boarding Station for Raritan Station Shuttles 37 Table 17: Annual O&M Cost Summary – Rail Alternative........................................................................38 Table 18: Farebox Recovery – Extension of Service from Phillipsburg, NJ to Allentown, PA .................38 Table 19: Capital Cost Summary – Rail .....................................................................................................39 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Pennsylvania Component Study Area with Existing Commuter Bus Facilities and Rail Routes .2 Figure 2: NJ TRANSIT’s Raritan Valley Line as Modified for the Pennsylvania Component Study .........5 Figure 3: Alternative Development/Meeting Flowchart...............................................................................7 Figure 4: Proposed Express Bus to New York Service Routing.................................................................12 Figure 5: Proposed Express Bus to Bridgewater Service Routing..............................................................13 Figure 6: Proposed Commuter Rail Extension to Allentown Alignment ...................................................20 Figure 7: Proposed Commuter Rail Extension to Allentown Schematic....................................................21 Figure 8: Proposed Easton Station..............................................................................................................24