ISRP REPORT: IMPACTS OF SAKHALIN II PHASE 2 ON WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC GRAY WHALES Report of the Independent Scientific Review Panel on the Impacts of Sakhalin II Phase 2 on Western North Pacific Gray Whales and Related Biodiversity CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..............................................................................................................................................................3 1 BACKGROUND................................................................................................................................................................3 2 OVERALL CONCLUSIONS.............................................................................................................................................3 3 REVIEW OF INDIVIDUAL THREATS AND PROPOSED MEASURES ......................................................................5 4 INFORMATION GAPS AND ESSENTIAL MONITORING...........................................................................................7 5 THE NEED FOR A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY TO SAVE WESTERN GRAY WHALES AND THEIR HABITAT ..........................................................................................................................................................................................8 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................................................................................9 CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................................10 1 BACKGROUND..............................................................................................................................................................10 2 TERMS OF REFERENCE...............................................................................................................................................10 3 PROCESS FOLLOWED..................................................................................................................................................11 CHAPTER II: REVIEW OF KNOWLEDGE ON WESTERN GRAY WHALES...................................................................14 4 POPULATION IDENTITY .............................................................................................................................................14 5 DISTRIBUTION, MIGRATION, MOVEMENT.............................................................................................................14 6 SAKHALIN HABITAT ...................................................................................................................................................15 7 FEEDING ECOLOGY.....................................................................................................................................................16 8 HEALTH..........................................................................................................................................................................16 9 ABUNDANCE AND BIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS ...................................................................................................19 10 INFORMATION NEEDS ................................................................................................................................................21 CHAPTER III: GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF PRESENT AND PROPOSED OIL AND GAS ACTIVITIES IN THE SAKHALIN REGION ...................................................................................................................................................................25 1 OVERVIEW.....................................................................................................................................................................25 2 PRESENT AND PROPOSED OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES..............................................................................................25 CHAPTER IV: DISCUSSION OF ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL THREATS TO WESTERN GRAY WHALES FROM PROPOSED OIL AND GAS ACTIVITIES.................................................................................................................................29 1 NOISE..............................................................................................................................................................................29 2 COLLISIONS...................................................................................................................................................................41 3 OIL AND GAS SPILLS AND ACCIDENTS ..................................................................................................................47 4 ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF PHYSICAL CHANGES TO HABITAT ........................................................................65 1 CONTENTS CHAPTER V: FACTORS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE SURVIVAL OF WESTERN GRAY WHALES IN ADDITION TO THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH SAKHALIN OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT ........................................72 1 DIRECT CATCHES ........................................................................................................................................................72 2 BYCATCHES IN FISHING GEAR.................................................................................................................................72 3 VESSEL COLLISIONS ...................................................................................................................................................72 4 DISEASE, TOXIC ALGAL BLOOMS AND EXPOSURE TO CONTAMINANTS......................................................72 5 PREDATION ...................................................................................................................................................................72 CHAPTER VI: CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF THE FACTORS DISCUSSED UNDER CHAPTERS IV & V...................74 1 FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED..................................................................................................................................74 2 SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES..........................................................................................................................74 3 RECEPTORS (WHALES) AND THEIR RESPONSES ..................................................................................................75 4 MAGNITUDE OF EFFECTS AND THEIR INTERACTIONS ......................................................................................75 CHAPTER VII: USE OF SIMULATION MODELLING TO ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARIOUS INDUSTRIAL AND OTHER SCENARIOS ON WESTERN GRAY WHALE SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY.................80 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................................80 2 ADDITIONAL DEATHS ................................................................................................................................................84 3 IMPACTS ON FEEDING AND REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS .....................................................................................84 CHAPTER VIII: OVERALL CONCLUSIONS..........................................................................................................................94 1 CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AND MODELLING (CHAPTERS VI AND VII) ...............................................................94 2 NOISE (SEE CHAPTER IV, ITEM 1).............................................................................................................................95 3 COLLISIONS/SHIP STRIKES (SEE CHAPTER IV, ITEM 2).......................................................................................96 4 OIL EXPOSURE (SEE CHAPTER IV, ITEM 3) ............................................................................................................96 5 PHYSICAL DISTURBANCE (SEE CHAPTER IV, ITEM 4) ........................................................................................97 6 PIPELINE SITING DECISION .......................................................................................................................................97 7 ADEQUACY OF DOCUMENTATION..........................................................................................................................97 8 INFORMATION GAPS AND ESSENTIAL MONITORING.........................................................................................97 9 THE NEED FOR A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY TO SAVE WESTERN GRAY WHALES AND THEIR HABITAT ........................................................................................................................................................................................98 2 ISRP REPORT: IMPACTS OF SAKHALIN II PHASE 2 ON WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC GRAY WHALES Executive summary 1 BACKGROUND 1.1 The animals and their status The small population of western gray whales, numbering only about 100 animals, is on the edge of survival. It was reduced to such low numbers by commercial whaling that in the mid 20th century it was thought to be extinct. The population is listed by IUCN – The World Conservation Union as ‘critically endangered’ and also has been the focus of concern by the International Whaling Commission (IWC) and the 3rd World Conservation Congress. The few surviving animals (possibly including only 23 reproductively active females) face a number of hazards throughout their range. It is particularly unfortunate that the only known foraging grounds for