Blekinge Institute of Technology School of Planning and Media Design European Spatial Planning and Regional Development Masterthesis in European Spatial Planning and Regional Development Supervisor: Jan-Evert Nilsson Master thesis The demographic decline - The case of Sweden The shrinking process in remote rural areas Author : Martin Böhm P-Number: 880930-P115 Spring Semester 2011 Weimar, 26.01.2014 I Abstract Keywords: counterurbanization, demographic decline, national equalisation policy, national regional growth policy, Norrland, urbanization, remote rural areas; rural restructuring, sparsely populated areas In Sweden, growing processes and shrinking processes take place simultaneously since decades. The following thesis deals especially with the decline process in the remote rural municipalities in Sweden. The central question of the thesis is: how the national and municipal level in Sweden is dealing with the demographic decline in remote rural regions. To answer this question, the thesis includes three parts. The first part is the theoretical framework the thesis. The second part analyses the measures at the national level with a focus on the national regional growth policy as a support measure and the national equalisation policy as a compensation measure. The dealing on the national process is characterized by policies to reverse the decline and to compensate the negative impacts. The third part analyses the dealing process on the municipal level. Thereby, the dealing process has more a practical nature. This shows the two selected case study of the municipalities Arjeplog and Jokkmokk. It seems very common that the Swedish municipal measures are characterized by a two-way dealing namely reverse the decline and secure the municipal basic services. 2 II Table of Contents I Abstract ............................................................................................................................ 2 II Table of contents ............................................................................................................. 3 III List of illustrations ........................................................................................................... 4 IV Acknowledgement ........................................................................................................... 6 V Glossary, nomenclature and acronyms ........................................................................... 7 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 10 1.1 Thesis background .............................................................................................................................. 10 1.2 Goals primary research questions and limitations .......................................................................... 12 1.3 Structure of the thesis ......................................................................................................................... 12 1.4 Semi-structured qualitative expert interviews.................................................................................. 13 1.5 Selection of the case studies............................................................................................................... 14 2 Theoretical background ................................................................................................ 17 2.1 The ageing challenge - a lower fertility meets a longer life expectancy ....................................... 17 2.2 Rural restructuring ............................................................................................................................... 28 2.3 Polarisation process with winners and losers .................................................................................. 40 3 The decline dealing process on the national level ........................................................ 42 3.1 The national regional growth policy ................................................................................................. 42 3.2 The national equalisation policy ........................................................................................................ 44 3.3 Critiques on the regional growth policy and the equalisation policy ........................................... 52 4 The decline dealing process on the municipal level ..................................................... 54 4.1 Population development on the local level ..................................................................................... 54 4.2 Strategies to reverse the decline ........................................................................................................ 59 4.3 Practical dealing process ..................................................................................................................... 61 5 Concluding discussion .................................................................................................. 67 6 References ..................................................................................................................... 72 6.1. Literature .............................................................................................................................................. 72 6.2 Online references ................................................................................................................................ 79 6.3 Interviews ............................................................................................................................................. 81 7 Appendix ........................................................................................................................ 82 7.1 Pictures .................................................................................................................................................. 82 7.2 Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 82 7.3 Questionnaire ....................................................................................................................................... 83 7.4 A personal reflection ........................................................................................................................... 84 3 III List of illustrations Figure 01: The different types of declining regions in Sweden .................................................. 11 Nilsson, J.-E. 2010 Figure 02: The selection of the municipalities Step 1 ................................................................. 15 Own figure on basis SCB. 2011a Figure 03: The selection of the municipalities Step 2 ................................................................ 16 Own figure on basis SCB. 2011a Figure 04: The selection of the municipalities Step 3 ................................................................ 16 Own figure on basis SCB. 2011a Figure 05: Total fertility rate in European countries, 1960–2000 ................................................ 18 Leridon. 2005:70 Figure 06: Mean age at first birth in European countries, 1960–2000 ....................................... 20 Leridon. 2005:71 Figure 07: Ideal family size in European countries, 1960–2000 .................................................. 21 Leridon. 2005:72 Figure 08: Three dimensions of rural reconstruction ................................................................ 29 Own figure on basis Pettersson. 2002:16 Figure 09: Responsibility fields of Local governments ............................................................. 45 SKL and Ministry of Finance. 2008:18 Figure 10: Local revenues in Sweden ......................................................................................... 46 Rudebeck.2008:2 Figure 11: Income equalisation for municipalities in 2008, outline diagram ............................ 46 SKL and Ministry of Finance. 2008:12 4 Figure 12: Outcome of income equalisation for municipalities in 2008 SEK/inhabitant per municipality group, weighted average ..................................................................... 47 SKL and Ministry of Finance. 2008:15 Figure 13: Cost equalisation for municipalities in 2008, outline diagram ................................. 48 SKL and Ministry of Finance. 2008:17 Figure 14: Extra structural costs by category ............................................................................ 48 SKL and Ministry of Finance. 2008:18 Figure 15: Outcome of cost equalisation for municipalities in 2008 SEK/inhabitant per municipality group, weighted average ...................................................................................... 49 SKL and Ministry of Finance. 2008:23 Figure 16: Structural grant 2008 SEK/inhabitant ...................................................................... 50 SKL and Ministry of Finance. 2008:26 Figure 17: Local government financial equalisation 2008 ............................................................... 51 SKL and Ministry of Finance. 2008:7 Figure 18: Example of outcome of the equalization and structural grant system .................... 52 SCB. 2011c, SKL and SCB. 2009: 35 Figure 19: The municipalities Arjeplog and Jokkmokk ............................................................ 54 Own figure on basis SPGA. 2011 Figure 20: The population development of Arjeplog and Jokkmokk ........................................ 56 SCB. 2011a Figure 21: The population pyramid of Övertorneå 2003