SaSSfA 20 - MANCHESTER HERALD. Tues.. July 27, 1982 • "V Dr. Land leaves Deficit disputed '•'• v5a', post at Polaroid by White House Analysts cautious on '83 clarnings page 21 ... page 4 projections, are predicting a 22 percent growth in ’83 the past month (49 percent) is noted in Justin Industries If you’re one of the more than 32 million investors who profits for the S&P index to $18.63. (That’s down from and Quanex. The runners-up are Barnes Group (48 per­ play the stock market, a word of warning: Wall Street $19,62 just three months ago). cent) and Crutcher Resources and Northrop (both 44 analysts, who’ve been cutting their ’82 earnings projM- percent). W H A T MAKES these ’82 and ’83 estimates so rele­ tions like crazy all year long, are now sharply cutting Sunny, warmer Manchester, Conn. Dan Dorfman vant — and disturbing — is that they’re higher (6 and 13 ON TH E O TH E R HAND, UNC Resources leads all ’ their ’83 profit projections as well. companies on the plus side with a one-month upgrading.” It means that a growing number of Wall Street pros — percent, respectively) than the S&P forecasts made by on Thursday in its ’82 earnings forecast of 82 percent. Centran Corp/- Wednesday, July 28, 1982 based on strong, ongoing contacts with top corporate the economists and portfolio managers for the very Syndicated follows with a 64 percent upgrading. And Walbar round?; management — believe the '83 Economic recovery will same brokerage firms whose analysts provide the profit — See page 2 Single copy 25c out the top three with a 23 percent earnings boost. be considerably less robust than is generally expected. Columnist predictions for IBES. In other words, more reductions Moving on to ’83, the IBES study — based on an', And if that’s so, the peppy rebound in stock prices that a are needed from the corps of analysis — assuming their analysis of 10,150 estimates — finds LTV undergoing tbe number of bulls are forecasting may simply be another very own brokerage economists know what they’re biggest one-month drop (39 percent) in analysts’ ear-> one of those Wall Street pipe dreams. talking about. ’The latest S&P index forecasts from these economists nings expectations. Tlie runners-up, both being clipped And here’s something equally significant from an in­ cream of the brokerage community’s profit forecasts — including the likes of Salomon Brothers, Goldman for 35 percent declines in next year’s'earnings es- ; vestment standpoint: A just-completed study of the ’82 timates, are Armco and H.F. Ahmanson. Nucor 'Corp. and ’83 earnings estimates of more than 1,000 analysts for the institutional fraternity for the past 10 years. Sachs and Kidder Peabody — call for $14.44 in ’82 and and Gqlden West Financial follow with 31 percent reduc- - from 66 brokerage firms (both the biggies and the In the latest IBES analysis — a tabulation of updated $16.54 in ’83. tions. • research boutiques) clearly indicates that Wall Street — ’82 and ’83 earnings projections as of mid-July — Wall In a much broader analysis covering 2,300 companies On the plus side, Clark Equipment, with a 32 percent: despite the widespread paring of profits — is still way . Street shaved its estimates by 3 percent for each year. in 74 industries, IBES finds the biggest ’82 earnings cuts Begin <Jeman<ds earnings upgrading for ’83, is the leader in this respect. * too high in its expectations. That’s the biggest one-month cutback in years. over the past month taking place in the savings and loan And that means that many stocks — even though Nonetheless, it’s not nearly as severe as It should be, associations (most of which are projected to show a Alaska Airlines is next with a 30 percent boost, followed • by Chrysler with a 25 percent increase. Forest Oil, at 24 ' they’re down sharply from last year’s highs — could be IBES chief Stanley Levine tells me. loss), airlines and steel companies. percent, and Redman Industries, at 22 percent, round stung by a good deal more selling pressure when ear­ As measured by the bevy of earnings estimates of the And of the 74 industries, only two — electric utilities out the top five. nings reports fail to live up to even the downgraded 500 individual industrial and finance companies that and specialized health care (hospital management com­ panies and nursing homes) — can boast of actually If you believe that earnings and earnings expectations ^ expectations. make up Standard &,Poor’s 500-stock index. Wall Street is projecting a profit of $15.31 a share in ’82, up from having their ’82 earnings estimates increased. are what stock prices are all about, the IBES study — ^ PLO reply soon $15.24 in ’81. With most economists talking profit In an analysis of 16,557 earnings estimates for ’82 — which clearly points up an excessive amount of Wall THE STUDY in question, just fired off to some 300 declines, not profit gains, for ’82, obviously something’s using as a yardstick companies with three or more es­ Street exuberance about ’82 and ’83 profit prospects — ; leading portfolio managers was conducted by tbe IBES timates and with the consensus earnings forecast above merits more than passing thought. Markets don’t run ;; “ But until now it is not clear if the dan’s King Hussein told the U.S. en­ division of Lynch, Jones & Ryan, a small research- out of whack. By United Press internationai For ’83, Wall Street analysts, based on their current away on the upside on earnings uncertainty. ' terrorists are truthfully willing to voy guerrillas carrying Jordanian oriented brokerage firm. IBES has been tracking the 50 cents a share — the biggest earnings reduction over Israeli gunboats and warplanes leave Beirut,” Begin said. “ He passports with no record of security pounded Beirut for a seventh (Habib) will find out in the next two offenses would be allowed into Jor­ straight day today and Prim e days. So he promised us. dan. About 2,000 guerrillas could fall Minister Menachem Begin said U.S. “ He said he must get ‘an un­ into this category, reports said. Knitters Prime Rate envoy Philip Habib must have an equivocal commitment’ that they’ll Today’s air and sea attacks, which “ unequivocal commitment” that in leave,” Begin said. ^ began after a brief early momiTO 48 hours the PLO will leave the The prime minister repeated his lull, were aimed at the serfH- Lebanese capital. demand that the PLO troops, deserted Sabra refugee camp in the Begin’s statement came a day trapped in west Beirut by 35,000 heart of Moslem west Beirut, the after some of the fiercest fighting in Israel troops and armor, must leave city’s southern suburbs and the decision Lebanon. coastline of the besieged city. the 8-week-oId invasion of Lebanon. Reientless barrages kiiled 120 peo­ But he vigorously denied a quote The guerrillas wheeled their i % ple and wounded more than 230 attributed to him by Rep. Paul mobile antiaircraft guns out into the others Tuesday. McCloskey, R-Calif., to the effect streets of the besieged city and fired “ Last night we met with Mr. Israel “ has the right to destroy Soviet-made SAM-7 rockets at the Philip Habib. He did not have much Beirut even though they kill 10 attacking warplanes. There were no is upheld reports of any aircrafUhit. good news,” Begin told a new group Lebanese and five Palestinians for s of Israelis formed recently to sup­ every Palestinian soldier.” Police said at least J20 people had WASHINGTON (U P l) — A federal judge has upheld a port government policy. “ Not one word like that came out been killed in Tuesday’s daylong controversial Labor Department decision to allow com- A The prime minister said Habib of my mouth,” Begin said. Israeli land, sea and air bombard­ / merical knitting of sweaters, scarves and other items at told him of his talks with Arab Habib talked Tuesday with Begin ment. Scores of civilians were home, a popular occupation in New England ski country. leaders and that several of the and Foreign Minister Yitzhak feared trapped under the rubble of AV destroyed buildings. The regulatory change was opposed by organized UPl photo leaders expressed willingness to Shamir on his more than five-week labor as an attack on federal minimum wage laws, since 15 accept part of the 6,000 to 8,000 attempt to avert a bloody showdown The police said another 242 people unions claimed enforcement of the law would be im­ FIERY TRAILS FROM ISRAELI ROCKETS LIGHT UP CAPTURED LAUNCHERS guerrillas trapped in the besieged in Beirut. were wounded, many of them possible. hundreds were killed or Injured in heavy fire Tuesday night - ' ' Lebanese capital. Israeli newspapers reported Jor­ seriously. But U.S. District Judge Louis Oberdorfer granted a 14 summary judgment Monday dismissing a suit brought by the International Ladies Garment Workers Union against the Labor Department. 13 «« Bank tries r j “ There was no showing that the problem of homework J ASOND JFMAMJJ in this industry was particularly intractable or that any 1981 1982 Bush ends Senate bid, UPl photo other distinction, aside from historical accident, now necessitated treating the knitted outwear industry to redeem Big dishes differently from the hundreds of other industries in which homework is permitted,” Oberdorfer’s opinion Prime rate cut said. fearing Moffett victory New $5 million earth station in Medlet', Fla., hes, 42'/2 feet in diameter, carry voice, data Labor Secretary Raymond Donovan proposed a Three major New York banks cut their prime old loans now links the Miami area with other major and facsimile communications over the .