ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 21, No. 1 (RO) Sept 2019 Romania political briefing: Broke of the ruling coalition triggers discussions about the change of the Government Oana Cristina Popovici 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 Broke of the ruling coalition triggers discussions about the change of the Government The ruling coalition broke in late August, as the junior governing party, ALDE, decided to leave the Government following a deadlock in the collaboration with the major Social Democrat Party (SDP). Given the change of the political composition of the Government and the refusal of the President to appoint new ministers following a Government reshuffle and the leave of ALDE ministers, the Dancila Government will have to receive the Parliament’ approval. There are chances that, under these conditions, the Government to be changed. However, despite public declarations, the opposition parties do not seem willing to assume governing at this moment. Potential unfavourable measures for dealing with a high budgetary deficit could have negative repercussions in the view of the future elections. In the last week of August, the junior governing party, ALDE, decided to leave the Government, invoking a coalition deadlock at the central and local levels. ALDE president motivated that the party could not further support measures such as the Government Emergency Ordinance (GEO) 114 which negatively affected the business environment or the non- functional budget construction. More detailed, ALDE president specified that the Government had made numerous amendments to GEO 114 which had not been approved in the Coalition. The measures taken with the occasion of the budgetary rectification were not efficient and did not solve the problems, therefore there is a gap of over 9 billion RON in the public budget. In addition, the local cooperation between the two parties is not working, only 8 organizations out of 47 indicating a good collaboration. In addition, one of the former members of the European Parliament, Norica Nicolai, motivated the broke of the alliance in that moment following hopes for a real collaboration with the SDP after the departure of Liviu Dragnea from the leadership of the Social Democrats, which did not happen. She invoked a real problem of communication which could lead to the situation in which one party was responsible for the major decisions, while the other had a marginal importance, only for ensuring the majority in the Parliament. On one hand, rumours indicate that the decision of leaving the coalition was also supported by the refusal of SDP to promote Calin Popescu Tariceanu, ALDE’s president, in the race for the Presidency of Romania. On the other hand, it is possible that ALDE seek a way of 1 not being associated anymore with SDP, and therefore with the massive protests since 2017, or the confrontation with the European institutions and leaders, in the view of the following elections (besides the presidential elections in November, two other electoral rounds for local administration and Parliament will take place next year). As a consequence, ALDE allied with ProRomania, the party of the former Prime Minister Victor Ponta, and signed a protocol of electoral alliance for the presidential elections in the autumn, in order to support the independent candidate Mircea Diaconu, a former member of the European Parliament and a well-known actor. Such an alliance was not well seen by some of the ALDE members in the country and the party is suffering from strong tensions after leaving the Government. Some of the ALDE leaders are dissatisfied with Tariceanu's decision to give up the presidential candidacy and argue that they will not get involved in Mircea Diaconu's campaign. The leaders in Bucharest are accused of not taking into account the party’s interests in the territory, the discussions and the agreements that existed before the European Parliament elections. The decision to leave the Government also meant the renouncement to all the functions achieved with the support of the coalition, such as four ministries portfolios. The exclusion from the party was stated to be the punishment for those not submitting. Out of the four ministers, only the Foreign Affairs minister decided not to resign, assuming the consequences. In addition, ALDE also had to give up the Senate Presidency, which was held by Calin Popescu Tariceanu, ALDE’s president. The position is important, as it is the second in Romania’s hierarchy, after that of the President of the country. Several ALDE parliamentarians are ready to leave the party and support the government. In return, Viorica Dancilă could further provide executive position for the ALDE members devoted to SDP and has already announced that she supports the ALDE senator Teodor Meleșcanu to take over the position of the president of the Senate. This caused a huge surprise for the ALDE leaders, and especially for Tariceanu. In this context, the ALDE leadership has decided that the members who accept appointments or positions from SDP will be excluded from the party, arguing that SDP’s intentions are to take over and destroy ALDE. However, Melescanu does not give up the candidacy for the head of the Senate and wants to suspend himself from ALDE for a period of six months, after being threatened with exclusion from the party. Teodor Meleșcanu has 78 years old and he served as a minister five times (holding the portfolios of Foreign Affairs, Defence or Justice ministries), was the director of the Service of Foreign Intelligence and had 4 senatorial mandates, each time being elected as a representative of another party (including from the part of NLP, actually in opposition). Giving the unclear 2 situation in ALDE, there are no clear assumptions about the result of the parliamentarians’ vote regarding the next president of the Senate. The opposition also nominated one if its members for this position and the vote will take place next week. The Prime Minister Viorica Dancila described the ALDE decision to break the governing coalition as “incomprehensible” and stated that SDP must carry on the governance, invoking the need to ensure the country's stability. She refused to resign, as some of the opposition parties requested given the loss of the majority in the Parliament, and she stated that the opposition should gather the needed support in the Parliament for passing a censure motion against the government. Earlier in August, before the crisis in the government generated by ALDE, the Prime Minister decided a government reshuffle and proposed the change of a deputy prime minister and the ministers of Justice and Education. However, the President rejected all three minister candidates due to the fact that “the proposals are simply unacceptable”. Once with the resignation of the three ALDE ministers, other proposals were made, but the reaction of the President lingered. Therefore, the Prime minister claimed a confusing situation generated by the delay in the appointment of interim ministers and decided to notify the Constitutional Court, demanding a legal conflict of a constitutional nature with the president. Only recently, the decision on the refusal of appointing the new interim ministers was announced. The President did not miss the opportunity to criticized again the Government, accusing it of being more concerned about solving internal crises, remaining in power at all costs and ignoring the solutions to major needs of population. As a consequence, the President made allusions to the need of a new government. However, in the last period, accusations related to the failures in fulfilling responsibilities started to pour from both the side of the Government and of the Presidency and there are fears that the situation will be perpetuating in the following months, as both Viorica Dancila and Klaus Iohannis are candidates in the presidential elections. The discussions regarding the change of the government gained momentum, as there are increased chances for the actual government not to receive any more the confidence vote from the part of the Parliament. As ALDE withdrew its ministers from the Executive and went to the opposition, the President asked Viorica Dăncilă to obtain the Parliament vote of confidence for the Government. The President also proposed the idea of a transitional government, who will replace the current government for not generating a political crisis. 3 National Liberal Party (NLP) President Ludovic Orban confirmed that the Liberals have begun negotiations to support the censorship motion against the Dancilă Government and will submit it when they will have the required number of signatures to pass - 233 - because they cannot afford to file a motion without at least 90% chance of success. Even ALDE could support the no-confidence motion filed by NLP. NLP is also willing to assume a transitional government, with the role of organizing early elections for a new parliament, after the presidential elections. The other coalition in opposition, USR-PLUS, also supports early elections for a new parliament who will allow for the reforms Romania needs. The actual configuration of the parliament would not lead to agreements on the major measures, no matter the political colour of the ruling government. Any government that would be formed now would have to accept compromises and be supported by a fragile majority, risking to be blocked at every turn. Assuming the power at present, under the conditions of high deficit and potential unfavourable measures for restoring the situation, it is possible to cause a negative impression on the population in the view of the future elections. This is why the general feeling is that no one would want to assume a transitional government before the presidential election, despite the public declarations.