Party Change and the Democratic Evolution of Taiwan: 1991-2001 Dafydd Fell A Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Studies, London School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London September, 2003 ProQuest Number: 10731371 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a com plete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. uest ProQuest 10731371 Published by ProQuest LLC(2017). Copyright of the Dissertation is held by the Author. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States C ode Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106- 1346 Table of Contents Acknowledgements IV List of Tables., ,vi List of Figures ,V11 Abbreviations. VII Note on Romanisation Abstract...................... IX Chapter One: Party Change and the Democratic Evolution of Taiwan 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Layout of the dissertation 1.3 Data and Methodology 1.3.1 Measurement of Party Change 1.3.1a) Newspaper Advertisements 1.3.1b) Television Advertisements 1.3.1c) Elite Interviews 1.3.2 Explanations of Party Change 1.3.2a) Inner-party Politics 1.3.2b) Electoral Competition 1.3.2c) External Shocks 1.3.2d) Incumbent Versus Government Status 1.3.2e) Institutional Explanations 1.3.21) Ideology Chapter Two: The Taiwanese Context .................................................23 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Brief History of Taiwan 2.2.1 Taiwan Before 1945 2.2.2 Taiwan’s Incorporation into the ROC 2.2.3 The Martial Law Years 2.2.4 The Li Denghui Era 2.3 Broad Electoral and Political Party Trends 2.4 Broad Trends in Issue emphasis 2.4.1 Do Taiwanese Parties Stress Issues? 2.4.2 What are the Most Salient Issues in Taiwanese Elections? 2.4.3 Do Taiwanese Parties Differ on Issues? Chapter Three: Social Welfare ..................................................................... 40 3.1.1 Introduction 3.1.2 Chapter Overview 3.2 Social Welfare Issues and the Development of a Welfare State in Taiwan 3.3 Broad trends in Social Welfare Emphasis 1991-2000 3.3.1 How Salient is Social Welfare in Taiwan? 3.3.2 Is Social Welfare an Owned Issue? 3.3.3 Public Opinion on Social Welfare 3.4 The Electoral Politics of Social Welfare 3.5 Social Welfare Sub-issues 3.5.1 National Health Insurance 3.5.2 Elderly welfare 3.6 Explanations of change 3.6.1 Inner party politics 3.6.2 Inter-party politics 3.6.2a) Public Opinion 3.6.2b) Mobilizing or Chasing 3.6.2c) Electoral Environment 3.6.2d) Election Results 3.6.2e) A Mandate Model? 3.6.3 Incumbency versus opposition 3.6.4 Institutional Factors 3.6.5 Ideology 3.7 Conclusion Chapter Four: Political Corruption ......................................................... 99 4.1.1 Introduction 4.1.2 A Framework for Analysing Political Corruption Issues in Taiwan 4.1.3 Chapter overview 4.2. The Latent Phase 4.3 Broad Trends in Political Corruption Emphasis 1991-2000 4.3.1 How salient is Political Corruption in Taiwan? 4.3.2 Is Political Corruption an Owned Issue? 4.3.3 Public Opinion and Political Corruption 4.4 The Electoral Politics of Political Corruption 4.4.1 Issue Development Phase: 1992-1996 4.4.2 Issue Entrance Phase: 1996-Present 4.5 Political corruption sub-issues 4.5.1 White corruption 4.5.2 White-Grey corruption 4.5.3 White-Grey-Black corruption 4.6 Explanations of change 4.6.1 Inner party politics 4.6.2 Inter-party politics 4.6.2a) Public Opinion 4.6.2b) Mobilizing or Chasing 4.6.2c) Electoral Environment 4.6.2d) Election Results 4.6.3 Incumbency versus opposition 4.6.4 Institutional Factors 4.6.5 Ideology 4.7 Conclusion Chapter Five: National Identity ................................ 5.1.1 Introduction 5.1.2 National Identity Issues in Taiwan 5.1.3 Chapter Overview 5.2.1 Development of the National Identity Issue before 1991 5.3 Broad Trends in National Identity Emphasis 1991-2000 5.3.1 How salient is National Identity in Taiwan? 5.3.2 Is National Identity an Owned Issue? 5.3.3 Public Opinion and National Identity 5.3.4 Politicians’ View of Change 5.4 National identity sub-issues 5.4.1 Taiwan Independence Versus Unification 5.4.2 Taiwanese Versus Chinese identity 5.5 Explanations for change 5.5.1 Inner party politics 5.5.2 Inter-party politics 5.5.2a) Public Opinion 5.5,2b) Mobilizing or Chasing 5.5.2c) Election Results 5.5.2d) Electoral Environment 5.5.3 External Factors 5.5.4 Institutional Factors 5.5.5 Ideology 5.6 Conclusion Chapter Six: Conclusion .....................................................................................................252 Bibliography Appendix 1... List of Abbreviations 228: The 1947 February 28 Incident BSR: Benshengren (AAl A ) Sometimes referred to as “native Taiwanese.” Those already living in Taiwan before 1945 and their descendents. This includes both the Hollo (M-/A) and Hakka ethnic groups. CCP: Chinese Communist Party (l:[:I |s£| A ItS t/ ^ A) CSC Central Standing Committee iv CSDP: Chinese Social Democratic Party CU: Chinese Unification DPP: Democratic Progressive Party DW: Dangwai )> the Non Party opposition movement. ESC: Election Survey Center (At National Chengchi University) (|§ KMT: Kuomintang (I:|:I H§ H II ) also known as the Nationalist Party. JSP: Japanese Socialist Party LDP: Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) ME: Municipal Executive (Includes city mayors and county magistrates). MKMT: Mainstream KMT (ZliMM) after 2000 known as the localised KMT MMD: Multi-Member (electoral) District MRG: Manifesto Research Group NHI: National Health Insurance NP: New Party (^irlSD NCCU: National Chengchi University) (M iL fk ?p NMKMT; Non Mainstream KMT ( ^ ± ® J © NTU: National Taiwan University (@3L’n S X ^ ) NUG: National Unification Guidelines PFP: People First Party PRC: People’s Republic of China ROC: Republic of China ( A ^ K i§ ) ROT: Republic of Taiwan (AflfAAnll) SMD: Single Member (electoral) District SNTV: Single Non-Transferable Vote SQ: Status Quo SVMM: Single, Non Transferable Voting in Multi-member Districts TI: Taiwan independence TIP: Taiwan Independence Party TSU: Taiwan Solidarity Union (tAI k) WSR: Waishengren (A A A) Those arriving from Mainland China after 1945 and their descendents. This group are also often referred to as “Mainlanders.” Note on romanisation Throughout this dissertation I have used the Hanyu Pinyin ) system of romanisation. The first time any Chinese name, place name or term is used, and I have also added the Chinese characters in brackets. Therefore I use Li Denghui and Gaoxiong 1 have Wade Giles has only been used has been for Chinese names of authors for works published in English, again The only other exception is I have used kept the commonly used spellings for Chiang Kai-shek Chiang vi Ching-kuo (WIS®) and Sun Yat-sen GAAf[Jj). Although the use of the Hanyu Pinyin system is controversial in Taiwan, I have used this system, as it is the most widely used in Chinese studies. List of Tables Table 1.1 Revised Manifesto Research Group Coding Scheme Table 1.2 Official Newspaper Ads Issue Domains Table (1991-2000) Table 2.1 Principal Elections and Verdict on Results (1989-2001 Table 2.2 Top Ten Issues in Three Categories (including official ads, Liu’s survey and elite survey) Table 2.3 Official Party Newspaper Ad Top Ten Issues for the Decade (1991-2000) Table 2.4 Official Party Newspaper Ad Top Ten Issues for Frequency of Getting into annual top tens Table 2.5 Party Issue Overlap on Official Ad Top Ten Table 2.6 Elite Views on Issue Saliency and Ownership. Table 2.7 Annual KMT Official Ads Issue Top Ten Table 2.8 Annual DPP Official Ads Issue Top Tens Table 2.9 Annual NP Official Ads Issue Top Tens Table 3.1 Social Welfare Issues in Taiwan Table 3.2 Social Welfare Party Image Survey Table 3.4 DPP Survey on Which Party is Best Able to Design a Fair and Reasonable Social Welfare System. Table 4.1 Political Corruption Sub-issues in Taiwan Table 4.2 Lianhebao Survey on Party Corruption Table 4.3 DPP Survey on Why do you dislike a Party? Table 4.4 DPP Survey on Why do you Like a Party? Table 5.1 Taiwan Independence Versus Chinese Unification Sub-issues Table 5.2 Taiwanese Identity Versus Chinese Identity Sub-issues Table 5.3 NTU Party Image survey on representing WSR or BSR Table 5.4 NTU Party Image survey on Taiwan Independence Versus Unification List of Figures Figure 1.1 Parties’Vote shares Figure 1.2 Parties Seat Shares Figure 1.3 Party Identification Trends Figure 2.1 Official Ads social welfare issue emphasis Figure 2.2 Total Ads social welfare issue emphasis Figure 2.3 Social Welfare issue emphasis in Japanese elections Figure 2.4 Public party image on the social welfare versus economic growth spectrum Figure 4.1 Official Ads Political Corruption emphasis Figure 4.2 Total Ads Political Corruption Issue emphasis Figure 4.3 Political Corruption issue emphasis in Japanese elections Figure 5.1 Official Ads Taiwan independence issue emphasis Figure 5.2 Total Ads Taiwan independence issue emphasis Figure 5.3 Public Opinion on Taiwan independence versus unification Figure 5.4 Public Opinion on Taiwanese identity versus Chinese identity Figure 5.5 Public party images on Taiwan independence versus Chinese unification spectrum Party Change and the Democratic Evolution of Taiwan: 1991-2001 Abstract The year 2001 marked, the tenth anniversary of Taiwan’s multi-party elections, offering a timely opportunity to take stock of the state of party politics in Taiwan.