Waterloo South Planning Proposal Economic development, local retail and services study PREPARED FOR: Land and Housing Corporation (LAHC) March 2020 Important Notice © MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language in any form by any means without the written permission of MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd. All Rights Reserved. All methods, processes, commercial proposals and other contents described in this document are the confidential intellectual property of MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd and may not be used or disclosed to any party without the written permission of MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd. MacroPlan staff responsible for this report: Ellis Davies, Principal - Retail Nora Farren, Senior Consultant – Retail Jack Collins, Analyst - Retail Contact Level 10 580 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 (02) 9221 5211 [email protected] Table of contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................................................ 5 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 Section 1: Trade area analysis ..........................................................................................................................18 1.1 Residential trade area ..............................................................................................................18 1.1.1 Trade area definition ...........................................................................................................18 1.1.2 Trade area population ........................................................................................................19 1.2 Socio-demographic profile ........................................................................................................23 1.3 Retail expenditure capacity ......................................................................................................25 1.4 Retail floorspace demand .........................................................................................................29 1.5 Workers and other customer segments ....................................................................................32 1.5.1 Worker customer segment..................................................................................................32 1.5.2 Other customer segments ..................................................................................................39 1.6 Competition analysis ................................................................................................................39 1.6.1 Retail centres/precincts ......................................................................................................39 1.6.2 Other employment nodes/precincts ....................................................................................45 1.6.3 Waterloo Metro Quarter ......................................................................................................46 1.7 SWOT assessment ..................................................................................................................48 1.7.1 Strengths ............................................................................................................................48 1.7.2 Weaknesses .......................................................................................................................48 1.7.3 Opportunities ......................................................................................................................48 1.7.4 Threats ...............................................................................................................................49 1.8 Retail allocations ......................................................................................................................50 1.9 Other consideration/issues .......................................................................................................50 1.9.1 Key issues/factors/risks ......................................................................................................51 1.9.2 Market feasibility ..............................................................................................................53 1.10 Recommended floorspace mix .................................................................................................53 Section 2: Implementation and approach ..........................................................................................................55 Section 3: Economic benefit assessment ..........................................................................................................57 Waterloo South c Economic development, local retail and services study 3.1 Wider economic benefits ..........................................................................................................57 3.2 Other benefits ...........................................................................................................................57 Section 4: Assessment calibration ....................................................................................................................59 4.1 Relevant considerations ...........................................................................................................59 4.2 Case studies.............................................................................................................................60 Section 5: Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................62 Appendix A: Land use and economic context ...................................................................................................63 A1.1 Sub-regional context ................................................................................................................63 A1.2 Local context ............................................................................................................................63 A1.3 Waterloo South proposed concept development ......................................................................64 A1.4 Reference resources and documents .......................................................................................64 Appendix B: Economic profiling and employment analysis ...............................................................................67 B1.1 Economic profiling and employment analysis ...........................................................................67 B1.2 Industry composition: City of Sydney Employment Floorspace Survey ....................................67 B1.3 Business growth and composition by industry and number of employees ...............................70 B1.4 Employment composition and growth by industry ....................................................................73 B1.5 Journey to work analysis ..........................................................................................................78 B1.6 Business, community and social infrastructure.........................................................................81 B1.7 Potential non-retail opportunities ..............................................................................................91 Appendix C: Wider economic benefits detailed methodology ...........................................................................92 Waterloo South d Economic development, local retail and services study Executive summary Macroplan has updated its report Waterloo Housing Estate (the Estate) State Significant Precinct (SSP) – Economic, Retail and Services Study August 2019 to reflect the change in the planning approach for the Waterloo Estate, from a state-led rezoning process (through a State Significant Precinct Study) to a council-led Planning Proposal process. The updated report reflects the new metrics, narrative and preamble supplied by Turners, Ethos Urban and LAHC. Conditions determining the retail and non-retail facilities’ viability and development The surrounding competition includes the existing and planned precincts around Redfern Street/Surry Hills to the north/north-east; Green Square and East Village to the south/south-east; ATP/Alexandria to the west; and higher order centres like the Broadway Shopping Centre, Central Park Mall, Sydney CBD, Westfield Bondi Junction, Westfield Eastgardens and Marrickville Metro. The trade area for Waterloo South has been defined, considering statistical boundaries, and the surrounding road and rail network. The resident trade area population is expected to grow from an estimated 21,490 persons at mid- 2019 to 37,140 persons by 2036. The customer profile and socio-demographics include a mix of working professionals and families, students and social housing tenants. The worker trade area population is expected to grow from an estimated 17,940 persons at June 2019 to over 33,000 persons by 2036. The worker population has higher average incomes than other metropolitan areas, but lower average incomes than the Sydney CBD. Per the information provided by LAHC, preliminary car parking volumes at Waterloo South for retail/community uses have been allocated at 190 parking spaces (based on a GFA of 17,900 sq.m). It is recommended these car spaces be located adjacent to the proposed supermarket space.