Personnel Turnover and the Dynamics of Team Performance: Evidence from German Association Football Der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universität Paderborn zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Doctor rerum politicarum - vorgelegte Dissertation von Dipl.-Kfm. Stefan Göke geboren am 20.09.1983 in Bonn Referent: Prof. Dr. Bernd Frick (2012) Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................. I LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ III LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... IV LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ VI 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 2 JOB MATCHING AND TRANSFER SUCCESS: EVIDENCE FROM GERMAN BUNDESLIGA FOOTBALL ................................................................. 10 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Job Matching and Turnover in Professional Team Sports .................................... 13 2.3 Previous Evidence on Transfers in Professional Team Sports.............................. 16 2.4 Data, Variables, and Descriptive Evidence of Player Transfers ........................... 18 2.5 Models and Empirical Results .............................................................................. 30 2.6 Summary and Implications for Further Research ................................................. 41 3 LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS AND CAREER SUCCESS: A DURATION ANALYSIS FOR GERMAN BUNDESLIGA FOOTBALL WITH COMPETING RISKS .......................................................................................................................... 46 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 46 3.2 Previous Evidence of Career Success in Professional Team Sports ..................... 48 3.3 Data, Variables, and Descriptive Evidence of Player Careers .............................. 52 3.4 Models and Empirical Results .............................................................................. 59 3.5 Summary and Implications for Further Research ................................................. 70 4 CAREER SUCCESS OF RISKY WORKERS: A DURATION ANALYSIS FOR GERMAN YOUTH FOOTBALL WITH COMPETING RISKS ......................... 73 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 73 4.2 Risky Workers and Private Information in the Context of Professional Team Sports .................................................................................................................... 74 4.3 Previous Evidence in Professional Team Sports ................................................... 77 4.4 Recent Institutional Changes in German Football ................................................ 80 4.5 Labor Market Entry of U19 Players: Data and Descriptive Evidence .................. 84 4.6 Method, Estimation, and Empirical Results for Competing Risk Models ............ 93 4.7 Summary and Implications for Further Research ............................................... 103 5 HUMAN CAPITAL, PERSONNEL TURNOVER, AND TEAM PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM GERMAN BUNDESLIGA FOOTBALL .............................................................................................................. 105 5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 105 5.2 Human Capital and Turnover in the Context of Professional Team Sports ........ 106 5.3 Previous Evidence in Professional Team Sports ................................................. 109 5.4 Data, Key Levels, and Variables Relevant for Analyzing Team Performance ... 112 I 5.5 Models and Empirical Results ............................................................................ 122 5.6 Summary and Implications for Further Research ............................................... 134 6 SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK .............................................................................. 136 APPENDIX A – JOB MATCHING AND TRANSFER SUCCESS ............................. X APPENDIX B – LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS AND CAREER SUCCESS ...... XII APPENDIX C – CAREER SUCCESS OF RISKY WORKERS ............................. XVII APPENDIX D – HUMAN CAPITAL, PERSONNEL TURNOVER, AND TEAM _____________ PERFORMANCE ....................................................................... XVIII LIST OF REFERENCES ............................................................................................ XIX ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................... XXXV II List of Figures FIGURE 2.1: TRANSFERS RELEVANT FOR PRESENT RESEARCH ................... 20 FIGURE 2.2: EPANECHNIKOV-KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATES OF DELTA MARKET VALUE. ................................................................................ 21 FIGURE 2.3: EPANECHNIKOV-KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATES OF MARKET VALUE ................................................................................................... 21 FIGURE 2.4: DIVISIONS AND LEAGUES IN GERMAN ASSOCIATION FOOTBALL. ........................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 2.5: MARKET VALUES MICHAEL BALLACK ........................................ 43 FIGURE 2.6: MARKET VALUES LUKAS PODOLSKI AND MARCEL JANSEN. 44 FIGURE 4.1: REFORM TIMELINE ............................................................................ 81 FIGURE 4.2: YOUTH PLAYERS IN THE BUNDESLIGA, 1995-2010. ................... 86 FIGURE 4.3: DEBUT TIMING AND DELTA PRO TEAM RANK........................... 89 FIGURE 4.4: TITLE AGE DISTRIBUTION ............................................................... 92 FIGURE 5.1: ROSTER SIZE DISTRIBUTION ......................................................... 130 FIGURE B.2: DISTRIBUTION OF THE TRANSFORMED LEAGUE RANK......... XII FIGURE B.1: TRUNCATION AND CENSORING IN THE BUNDESLIGA SAMPLE, 1995-2010. ............................................................................................. XII FIGURE B.3: LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS IN THE BUNDESLIGA, 1995-2010. ............................................................................................ XIII III List of Tables TABLE 2.1: TOP 10 TRANSFERS OF YOUNG TALENT WITHIN THE BUNDESLIGA, 1995-2011. ................................................................... 11 TABLE 2.2: FANTASY GAME BUDGETS, TRANSFER FEES, AND TV REVENUES ............................................................................................ 22 TABLE 2.3: SUMMARY STATISTICS OF SELECTED VARIABLES .................. 24 TABLE 2.4: SUMMER SIGNINGS AND FREE AGENTS. ..................................... 26 TABLE 2.5: SUMMER SIGNINGS BY TEAM, 1995-2010. .................................... 29 TABLE 2.6: OLS ESTIMATES FOR SPORTING AND FINANCIAL SUCCESS (1).......................................................................................... 33 TABLE 2.7: OLS ESTIMATES FOR SPORTING AND FINANCIAL SUCCESS (2).......................................................................................... 34 TABLE 2.8: OLS ESTIMATES FOR TEAM DUMMIES ......................................... 35 TABLE 3.1: THE SIZE OF THE PLAYER POPULATION, 1995-2010 .................. 53 TABLE 3.2: SUMMARY STATISTICS ..................................................................... 58 TABLE 3.3: SPELLS AND CAREERS IN THE BUNDESLIGA, 1995-2010 .......... 59 TABLE 3.4: COX CRM ESTIMATES FOR SPELLS SPLIT BY INVOLUNTARY AND VOLUNTARY EXIT .................................................................... 63 TABLE 3.5: COX CRM ESTIMATES FOR SPELLS SPLIT BY END-OF-SEASON AND IN-SEASON EXIT ........................................................................ 64 TABLE 4.1: SUMMARY OF ROSTER OBSERVATIONS ...................................... 85 TABLE 4.2: SUCCESS OF GERMAN NATIONAL TEAMS, 1995-2010 ............... 87 TABLE 4.3: DEBUTS BY DIVISION AND TARGET CLUB.................................. 87 TABLE 4.4: SUMMARY STATISTICS ..................................................................... 91 TABLE 4.5: COX CRM ESTIMATES FOR DEBUTS IN ALL THREE LEAGUES .............................................................................................. 96 TABLE 4.6: COX CRM ESTIMATES FOR DEBUTS IN BUNDESLIGA AND 2. BUNDESLIGA ONLY ....................................................................... 98 TABLE 5.1: VARIABLE DESCRIPTION ............................................................... 115 TABLE 5.2: SUMMARY STATISTICS ................................................................... 116 TABLE 5.3: CAREER AND TEAM SPECIFIC LEAGUE APPEARANCES ........ 119 TABLE 5.4: CORRELATION MATRIX FOR GENERAL AND TEAM SPECIFIC HUMAN CAPITAL VARIABLES ...................................................... 120 TABLE 5.5: CORRELATION MATRIX FOR TOP-MANAGEMENT HUMAN CAPITAL VARIABLES ...................................................................... 122 TABLE 5.6: CONCEPTUAL MODEL OVERVIEW............................................... 123 IV TABLE 5.7: FIXED-EFFECTS ESTIMATES (1) ...................................................