Community Based Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Of Muglu Khola Watershed in Rukum District Nepal -Final Report- Submitted to: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Programme (CDRMP) Lalitpur Nepal Prepared by: ECO Nepal Kathmandu Nepal And Nepal Public Awakening Forum Khalanga-2, Salle, Rukum Community Based Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Muglu Khola Watershed in Rukum District Table of Contents Table of Contents Assessment Team .................................................................................................................................. b Abbreviation .......................................................................................................................................... c Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... - 1 - 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................................... - 1 - 1.2 Objectives of the Study ....................................................................................................... - 2 - 1.3 Scope of the Study .............................................................................................................. - 2 - 1.4 Important Terminology ....................................................................................................... - 3 - Chapter 2 Study Area ...................................................................................................................... - 5 - 2.1 Study Area ........................................................................................................................... - 5 - 2.1.1 An Overview of Rukum ............................................................................................... - 5 - 2.1.2 Muglu Khola Watershed ............................................................................................. - 7 - Chapter 3 Climate Change Impact in the Study Area................................................................ - 14 - 3.1 Climate Change Impact in Nepal ....................................................................................... - 14 - 3.1.1 General Overview ..................................................................................................... - 14 - 3.1.2 Impact on Temperature ............................................................................................ - 14 - 3.1.3 Impact on Precipitation ............................................................................................. - 14 - 3.1.4 Impact on Runoff ...................................................................................................... - 15 - 3.1.5 Impact on Agricultural System .................................................................................. - 16 - 3.1.6 CC Adoptation in Nepal ............................................................................................. - 17 - 3.2 Climate Change in Muglu Khola Watershed ..................................................................... - 18 - 3.2.1 People's Perception on CC ........................................................................................ - 18 - 3.2.2 Trend Temperature Changes .................................................................................... - 19 - 3.2.3 Impact on Precipitation ............................................................................................. - 25 - 3.3 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Practices .......................................................... - 29 - Chapter 4 Flood Hazard Risk Assessment .................................................................................. - 31 - 4.1 General .............................................................................................................................. - 31 - 4.2 Study Approach ................................................................................................................. - 31 - 4.3 Data Collection .................................................................................................................. - 32 - 4.4 Study Methodology ........................................................................................................... - 34 - 4.4.1 Flood Analysis............................................................................................................ - 34 - 4.4.2 Flood Hazard Mapping .............................................................................................. - 37 - 4.5 Results and Discussion ...................................................................................................... - 40 - 4.5.1 Rainfall Analysis......................................................................................................... - 40 - Submitted to UNDP a Prepared by ECONEPAL and NPAF Rukum Community Based Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Muglu Khola Watershed in Rukum District Table of Contents 4.5.2 Flood Analysis and Prediction ................................................................................... - 43 - 4.5.3 Summary of Results .................................................................................................. - 45 - 4.5.4 Flood Plain Mapping ................................................................................................. - 46 - 4.5.5 Flood Risk Assessment .............................................................................................. - 49 - 4.6 Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................................ - 53 - Chapter 5 Landslide Hazard Risk Assessment ........................................................................... - 55 - 5.1 General .............................................................................................................................. - 55 - 5.2 Landslide Processes .......................................................................................................... - 55 - 5.3 Landslides in the Study Area ............................................................................................. - 57 - 5.4 Landslide Hazard Assessment Approach .......................................................................... - 59 - 5.4.1 Statistical Approach .................................................................................................. - 59 - 5.4.2 Physically-based Approach ....................................................................................... - 60 - 5.5 Results and Discussion ...................................................................................................... - 63 - 5.5.1 Statistical Method ..................................................................................................... - 63 - 5.5.2 Physically-based Methods......................................................................................... - 67 - 5.6 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... - 69 - Chapter 6 Socio-Economic Profile ................................................................................................ - 71 - 6.1 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... - 71 - 6.2 District Profile ................................................................................................................... - 73 - 6.3 Demography of Muglu Khola Watershed ......................................................................... - 74 - 6.4 Occupation ........................................................................................................................ - 75 - 6.5 Food Sufficiency ................................................................................................................ - 76 - 6.6 Health and Sanitation ....................................................................................................... - 77 - 6.7 Land Types, Land Holding and Cropping Pattern .............................................................. - 78 - 6.8 Migration Pattern.............................................................................................................. - 78 - 6.9 Energy Consumption ......................................................................................................... - 78 - 6.10 Archaeological and Historical Sites ................................................................................... - 78 - 6.11 Gender and Disadvantage Group ...................................................................................... - 79 - 6.12 People’s Knowhow on Disasters ....................................................................................... - 79 - 6.13 Institutional Capacity ........................................................................................................ - 80 - 6.14 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... - 82 - Chapter 7 Community Hazard Mapping ..................................................................................... - 83 - 7.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... - 83 - 7.2 Historical Time Line ..........................................................................................................