A behavioral shipment‐based model of freight tour formation Master Thesis Transport, Infrastructure & Logistics Delft University of Technology October 1st, 2018 S. Thoen 0 1 A behavioral shipment‐based model of freight tour formation Calibration of a statistical algorithm using big data on Dutch road carriers MSc Thesis Report Author: Sebastiaan Thoen Student number: 4304942 University: TU Delft MSc program: Transport, Infrastructure & Logistics Graduation presentation: October 15th, 2018 – 15:30 Thesis committee: Prof.dr.ir. L.A. Tavasszy (Chairman) TU Delft (ESS, T&P) Dr.ir. G. Homem de Almeida Correia TU Delft (T&P) Dr. J.H.R. van Duin TU Delft (T&L) M.A. de Bok TU Delft (T&P), Significance 2 CONTENTS Preface .................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Summary ................................................................................................................................................................. 6 List of tables ............................................................................................................................................................ 9 List of figures ......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................................................ 11 Glossary ................................................................................................................................................................. 12 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 13 1.1 Problem statement ..................................................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Research objective and scope .................................................................................................................... 14 1.3 Research questions ..................................................................................................................................... 15 1.4 Research approach ..................................................................................................................................... 15 1.5 Contribution ................................................................................................................................................ 16 1.6 Outline of the report .................................................................................................................................. 16 2. Understanding freight tour formation ........................................................................................................ 17 2.1 Actors involved in freight transportation ................................................................................................... 17 2.2 Objectives and constraints that influence tour formation ......................................................................... 19 2.2.1 Objectives of the carrier ...................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.2 Constraints .......................................................................................................................................... 21 2.2.3 Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................................. 22 2.3 Differences in tours .................................................................................................................................... 23 2.3.1 Characterizing tours ............................................................................................................................ 23 2.3.2 Explaining tour differences .................................................................................................................. 25 3. State of the art in freight forecasting models ............................................................................................. 27 3.1 A typology of freight forecasting models ................................................................................................... 27 3.2 Incorporating tour formation ..................................................................................................................... 28 3.2.1 Aggregate: Tour‐based entropy maximization .................................................................................... 28 3.2.2 Disaggregate approaches .................................................................................................................... 29 3.3 The scientific gap ........................................................................................................................................ 34 4. Data .............................................................................................................................................................. 39 4.1 Structure of the data .................................................................................................................................. 39 4.2 Skim matrices.............................................................................................................................................. 40 4.3 Analysis and discussion of variables ........................................................................................................... 41 4.3.1 Shipment attributes ............................................................................................................................ 41 4.3.2 Tour attributes .................................................................................................................................... 43 4.3.3 Further analyses on number of stops .................................................................................................. 52 3 4.4 Concluding remarks .................................................................................................................................... 56 5. Methodology ............................................................................................................................................... 58 5.1 General structure of the tour formation model ......................................................................................... 58 5.2 Detailed model steps .................................................................................................................................. 59 5.2.1 End Tour sub model ............................................................................................................................ 60 5.2.2 Select Shipment sub model ................................................................................................................. 64 5.3 Model estimation steps .............................................................................................................................. 66 5.2.1 Estimation of the End Tour sub model ................................................................................................ 66 5.3.2 Estimation of the Select Shipment sub model .................................................................................... 67 6 Estimation results ........................................................................................................................................ 69 6.1 Estimates End Tour first shipment .............................................................................................................. 69 6.2 Estimates End Tour later shipments ........................................................................................................... 76 6.3 Estimates Select Shipment .......................................................................................................................... 82 6.4 Estimation with a subset of carriers ........................................................................................................... 84 7 Validation and sensitivity analysis .............................................................................................................. 86 7.1 Validation .................................................................................................................................................... 86 7.1.1 Number of stops .................................................................................................................................. 87 7.1.2 Tour distance ....................................................................................................................................... 89 7.1.3 Validity for other carriers .................................................................................................................... 91 7.2 Sensitivity analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 92 7.2.1 Number of stops .................................................................................................................................. 92 7.2.2 Tour distance ......................................................................................................................................