DEEP INTEGRATION HOW TRANSATLANTIC MARKETS ARE LEADING GLOBALIZATION EDITED BY DANIEL S. HAMILTON AND JOSEPH P. QUINLAN PUBLISHED JOINTLY BY CENTER FOR TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY PAUL H. NITZE SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES AND CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES (CEPS) Funding for this project was made possible by a generous grant from the DaimlerChrysler Corporation Fund. Hamilton, Daniel S. and Quinlan, Joseph P. (eds), Deep Integration: How Transatlantic Markets are Leading Globalization, Washington, DC and Brussels: Center for Transatlantic Relations and Centre for European Policy Studies, 2005 ISBN 9-9766434-1-3 © Center for Transatlantic Relations/Centre for European Policy Studies, 2005 Center for Transatlantic Relations Centre for European Policy Studies American Consortium on EU Studies Place du Congrès 1 EU Center Washington, DC 1000 Brussels The Paul H. Nitze School of Tel: 32 2 229 39 11 Advanced International Studies Fax: 32 2 219 41 51 The Johns Hopkins University Email: [email protected] 1717 Massachusetts Ave., NW. Suit 525 Website: http://www.ceps.be Washington, DC 20036 Tel: 202-663-5880 Fax: 202-663-5879 Email: [email protected] Website: http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu Table of Contents Preface.................................................................................................. i Executive Summary .......................................................................... iii Section I. Deep Integration and the Transatlantic Economy 1. The Transatlantic Economy: Mars? Venus? No, Mercury!......................3 Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan 2. The Transatlantic Economy: Seven Ties that Bind ................................11 Daniel Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan 3. The Transatlantic Economy: Remaining Barriers and Possibilities for Liberalization....................................................................................28 Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan Section II. Deep Integration and the Transatlantic Economy: Sectoral Analyses 4. Services in the Transatlantic Economy ..................................................39 Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan 5. Beyond Open Skies: The Economic Impact of a U.S.-EU Open Aviation Area .....................50 Dorothy Robyn, James Reitzes and Boaz Moselle 6. Commercial Aerospace and the Transatlantic Economy........................74 Richard Aboulafia 7. The Transatlantic Outlook for the Biopharmaceutical Sector ................91 Françoise Simon 8. The Transatlantic Automotive Sector................................................... 109 Garel Rhys 9. A Transatlantic Financial Market? ....................................................... 122 Karel Lannoo 10. Transatlantic Telecommunications: Markets, Policies, Issues ............. 132 Michael Tyler and Matthew Dixon 11. Telecom Services: A Transatlantic Perspective ................................... 156 Andrea Renda Section III. Politics and Markets 12. Transatlantic Corporate Governance Reform: Brussels Sprouts or Washington Soup?................................................ 193 Arman Khachaturyan and Joseph A. McCahery 13. Climate Change: Could a transatlantic greenhouse gas emissions market work?........................................................................................ 204 Christian Egenhofer 14. REACH: Getting the Chemistry Right in Europe ................................ 221 Jacques Pelkmans 15. All quiet on the transatlantic front? Deficits and Imbalances in the Transatlantic Economy ....................... 236 Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer 16. Transatlantic and Global Dimensions of the Lisbon Agenda............... 250 Fredrik Erixon Section IV. Conclusion 17. Deep Integration: Opportunities and Challenges for Transatlantic Relations................... 277 Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan About the Authors.......................................................................... 287 Preface lobalization is widening the scope and scale of interactions between continents to embrace more parts of the globe than ever before. Most G punditry and analysis have focused on this ‘widening’ process, particularly its impact on developing countries. But globalization is also deepening the intensity of such interactions, and this deepening is most intense across the Atlantic. This volume examines the phenomenon we call ‘deep integration’ – the extensive ties that bind the US and European economies. We attempt to offer a clearer picture of the ‘deep integration’ forces shaping the transatlantic economy today; to show how these interdependencies have accelerated, not loosened, since the end of the Cold War; how they prevailed despite the transatlantic political disputes of the past few years; how specific sectors of the transatlantic economy are deeply integrated; how domestic policy decisions have important transatlantic consequences; and how decision- makers on each side of the Atlantic can understand the challenges and seize the opportunities accompanying this phenomenon. While there has been no effort to force consensus among the authors in this volume, a basic theme does connect the various contributions: transatlantic markets are in many respects the cutting edge of globalization. Key sectors of the transatlantic economy are integrating as never before, driven primarily by investment flows and foreign affiliate sales, which are ‘deep’ forms of integration, as opposed to trade, which is a ‘shallow’ form of integration. Europeans and Americans have become so intertwined that we are literally in each other’s business. These linkages underpin a $3 trillion economy that provides up to 14 million ‘insourced’ jobs on both sides of the Atlantic. Deep integration, however, can also generate frictions when two different systems rub up against each other. Many ‘top-down’ policy proposals for new transatlantic economic initiatives have been issued by business groups and think tanks, but there is little ‘bottom-up’ analysis of specific cases that can provide a foundation of evidence for the phenomenon of deep integration. The case studies in this volume are intended to be illustrative rather than comprehensive. Some examine specific sectors in which transatlantic cooperation to remove barriers or align standards has had positive results, and sectors in which cooperation has been less successful. Others investigate the interaction between domestic policy decisions and deep transatlantic integration. Wherever possible we have sought to quantify the economic benefits of success or the economic costs of failure, and to offer lessons to be drawn and areas to explore. | i Executive Summary One of the defining features of the global economic landscape over the past decade has been the increasing integration and cohesion of the transatlantic economy. Globalization is happening faster and reaching deeper between Europe and America than between any other two continents. The European and American economies have not drifted apart since the end of the Cold War; they have become even more intertwined and interdependent. Despite the perennial hype about the significance of NAFTA, the ‘rise of Asia’ or ‘big emerging markets’, the United States and Europe remain by far each other’s most important commercial partners. The economic relationship between the United States and Europe is by a wide margin the deepest and broadest between any two continents in history – and those ties are accelerating. The first five years of the 21st century – a time of transatlantic political tension and sluggish economic growth – marked one of the most intense periods of transatlantic integration ever. The transatlantic economy generates roughly $3 trillion in total commercial sales a year and employs up to 14 million workers in mutually ‘insourced’ jobs on both sides of the Atlantic who enjoy high wages, high labor and environmental standards, and open, largely nondiscriminatory access to each other’s markets. Investment First, Trade Second Transatlantic trade squabbles steal the headlines but account for only 1-2% of transatlantic commerce. In fact, trade itself accounts for less than 20% of transatlantic commerce. Trade flows are a misleading benchmark of transatlantic economic interaction. Foreign investment, not trade, drives transatlantic commerce, and contrary to common wisdom, most US and European investments flow to each other, rather than to lower-wage developing nations. When one adds investment and trade together to get a more complete picture, one sees that US economic engagement remains overwhelmingly focused on Europe. The transatlantic economy is where the markets are, where the jobs are and where the profits are. | iii iv | DEEP INTEGRATION: TRANSATLANTIC MARKETS & GLOBALIZATION In 2004, total transatlantic trade in goods rose to a record $482 billion, up 22% from 2003. Despite the strength of the euro against the US dollar, US imports from the European Union jumped to a record $283 billion, helping to drive America’s trade deficit with the European Union to an all-time high – $110 billion. In 2004, the US posted record imports from Germany ($77.2 billion), Italy ($28 billion), France ($31.8 billion), Italy ($28.1 billion) and a host of other European nations. Surging imports from Europe led to record US trade deficits with a number of European nations in 2004, including Germany ($46 billion). Despite Washington’s war-related frustrations with Europe, corporate America ploughed nearly $100 billion into the European Union in 2003