The Power of Experience Public Disclosure Authorized Caribbean Regional Electricity Generation, Interconnection, Submitted to: and Fuels Supply Strategy World Bank Final Report Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Submitted By: Public Disclosure Authorized March 2010 Contents Section Page Section 1 Executive Summary 1-1 1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Approach ...................................................................................................................... 1-6 1.3 Load Forecast ............................................................................................................... 1-6 1.4 Fuel Supply .................................................................................................................. 1-9 1.5 Project and Technology Analysis .............................................................................. 1-10 1.6 Regional Strategies .................................................................................................... 1-25 1.7 Country Summaries ................................................................................................... 1-26 1.8 Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 1-42 Section 2 Introduction 2-1 2.1 Background .................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 Study Team .................................................................................................................. 2-2 Section 3 Approach 3-1 3.1 Approach ...................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Brief Description of Study Steps ................................................................................. 3-1 Section 4 Data 4-1 4.1 Data Collection Process ............................................................................................... 4-1 Section 5 Existing and Planned Generation, Summary of Transmission 5-1 5.1 Existing and Planned Generation Plants ...................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Existing Transmission Systems ................................................................................. 5-14 5.3 Description and Analysis of Power Generation Market ............................................ 5-14 Section 6 Load Forecast 6-1 6.1 Load Forecasting Approach ......................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Current Demand and Electricity Forecast by Country ................................................. 6-1 6.3 Regional Load Forecast ............................................................................................. 6-15 Section 7 Fuel Supply 7-1 7.1 Existing Fuel Supply .................................................................................................... 7-1 7.2 Potential Fuel Supply Options ..................................................................................... 7-2 7.3 Fuel Storage Options .................................................................................................. 7-23 7.4 Fuel Prices and Projections ........................................................................................ 7-27 Section 8 Generation Technologies and Expansion Options 8-1 8.1 Regional Overview ...................................................................................................... 8-1 8.2 Fossil Fuel Technologies – Costs and Performance .................................................... 8-4 8.3 Renewable Energy Technologies – Power Plant Costs and Performance ................. 8-11 8.4 Renewable Technologies – Resource Availability .................................................... 8-32 8.5 Upgrade and Retrofit of Existing Units ..................................................................... 8-38 8.6 Renewable Energy Projects ....................................................................................... 8-39 Section 9 Submarine Cables and Interconnection Options 9-1 9.1 Overview of Submarine Cables ................................................................................... 9-1 9.2 Existing/Proposed Sub-regional Interconnection Options ......................................... 9-12 9.3 Northern Ring Interconnection .................................................................................. 9-36 Caribbean Regional Electricity Generation, Interconnection, and Fuels Supply Strategy – Final Report i Contents Section 10 Study Analytical Approach 10-1 10.1 Overview of Analytical Procedures ........................................................................... 10-1 10.2 Screening Analysis Approach .................................................................................... 10-1 10.3 Approach for Developing Scenarios .......................................................................... 10-5 10.4 Power System Expansion Planning and Analysis Approach ..................................... 10-6 Section 11 Screening Analysis Results 11-1 11.1 Fossil Fuels ................................................................................................................ 11-1 11.2 Screening Curves for Individual Islands .................................................................... 11-5 11.3 The Impact of CO2 “Costs” ..................................................................................... 11-20 Section 12 Scenarios 12-1 12.1 Base Case Scenario .................................................................................................... 12-1 12.2 Fuel Scenario ............................................................................................................. 12-2 12.3 Interconnection/Renewable Scenario ......................................................................... 12-2 12.4 Integrated Scenario .................................................................................................... 12-3 Section 13 Scenario Analysis Results 13-1 13.1 Base Case Scenario Summary ................................................................................... 13-2 13.2 Fuel Scenario ............................................................................................................. 13-6 13.3 Interconnection/Renewable Scenario ......................................................................... 13-9 13.4 Integrated Scenario .................................................................................................. 13-13 Section 14 Study Results Evaluation 14-1 14.1 Comparison of Scenario Results ................................................................................ 14-1 14.2 Recommended Development Scenario ...................................................................... 14-4 Section 15 Conclusions and Recommendations 15-1 15.1 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 15-1 15.2 Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 15-6 Attachment A provides detailed scenario analysis results Attachment B provides a discussion of submarine power cable reliability Attachment C provides a discussion of submarine power cable repair procedures Caribbean Regional Electricity Generation, Interconnection, and Fuels Supply Strategy – Final Report ii Contents Table Page Acronyms and Abbreviations ...................................................................................................... viii Table 1-1 Net Peak Demand Load Forecast (MW) ..................................................................... 1-7 Table 1-2 Net Generation Forecast (GWh) .................................................................................. 1-8 Table 1-3 Fuel Prices Based on Yearly Demand 2014-2028 ....................................................... 1-9 Table 1-4 Scenario NPV Cost Differences - Base Case Minus Other Scenario Costs (million US$) ................................................................................................................................... 1-26 Table 5-1 Fuels, Fuel Types, and Where the Fuel Prices Apply ................................................. 5-2 Table 5-2 Existing Generating Units ........................................................................................... 5-3 Table 5-3 Planned Generating Units ............................................................................................ 5-9 Table 5-4 Transmission System Frequency and Highest Voltages ........................................... 5-14 Table 6-1 Summary Load Forecast for Antigua and Barbuda ..................................................... 6-2 Table 6-2 Summary Load Forecast for Barbados ........................................................................ 6-3 Table 6-3 Summary Load Forecast for Dominica ....................................................................... 6-4 Table 6-4 Summary Load Forecast for Dominican Republic ...................................................... 6-5 Table 6-5 Summary Load Forecast for Grenada .......................................................................... 6-6 Table 6-6 Summary Load Forecast for Haiti ............................................................................... 6-7 Table 6-7 Summary Load